Torrid 2nd day at Aintree, so lets forget that and move on very swiftly.
13.45 - JOHN SMITH´S MERSEY NOVICES´ HURDLE (Grade 2)
Clearly the best horse in this race is Dodging Bullets, but with the step up in trip a clear negative in my opinion, I have to look elsewhere. If he takes to the extra 4 furlongs then he wins, but I don't think he will and there is nothing in his pedigree to make me think otherwise. We then move onto the favourite in Up and Go. The form of the Donald McCain runners is a worry, even though he managed a win at Sedgefield yesterday and I do feel this horse needs soft ground, according to his action. I'll be with UTOPIE DES BORDES. This filly by Nicky Henderson (who by the way, had an excellent day yesterday) has form on good ground, the drop back to 2m4f is a big bonus and the filly's allowance always helps.
5-1 Best price.
14.15 - JOHN SMITH´S MAGHULL NOVICES´ CHASE (Grade 1)
Surely OVERTURN's poor run in the Arkle was only due to the ground? That's my take on it anyway, and on better ground this time around, with hopefully an uncontested lead, he can show his true colours. I am a big fan of Baily Green, but I think he'll be the complete opposite to Overturn on this ground. I think that the rest will fall a little short of this grade and its all set up for Overturn to bounce back.
9-4 Best price.
14.50 - JOHN SMITH´S LIVERPOOL HURDLE (Grade 1)
It was a favourites day yesterday, and I think that will continue here. SOLWHIT was very impressive when stepped up to 3 miles for the first time in the World Hurdle and he shouldn't have too much trouble with the better ground here. I would love to see Grands Crus run well, but he is a shadow of his former self.
5-2 best price.
15.25 - JOHN SMITH´S HANDICAP CHASE (Listed Race)
After frustratingly seeing Battle Group bolt up on Thursday after I have followed him a few times and knew he had a bit of class about him, i'd be amazed if he can win this race only 2 days later. I like PROBLEMA TIC and Loch Ba for this. The former is my selection and I fully expect David Pipe to have him spot on, now he's back to his last winning mark. He loves good ground and this is the time to catch him... the blinkers should have a positive effect.
18-1 Best price.
16.15 - JOHN SMITH´S GRAND NATIONAL CHASE (Handicap) (Grade 3)
So the big one. As mentioned on twitter on Thursday, my 3 against the field are Cappa Bleu, Seabass and Roberto Goldback. Best of luck in whoever yours are.
11-1 Seabass
12-1 Cappa Bleu
33-1 Roberto Goldback
(from Thursday)
17.10 - JOHN SMITH´S HANDICAP HURDLE (For Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders)
22 horses, all with amateur jockeys on their backs. To call this tough would be an understatement. So its best to go with a good jockey, for an inform yard. That lands with JUMPS ROAD for me.
16-1 Best price.
17.45 - JOHN SMITH´S CHAMPION STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE(Grade 2)
What surprises me time and time again in these flat races at festivals are that unbeaten horses have a tremendous record. There is only 1 here, and that's DAKAR RUN. So that's where my small bet will go.
16-1 Best price.
Best of luck all.
The Rascal
Friday, 5 April 2013
Thursday, 4 April 2013
Aintree Grand National Meeting - Day 2
Mixed fortunes for day 1, but I am very pleased that I was adamant that Silviniaco Conti wouldn't win. Onto day 2.
14.00 - ROSE APPEAL SUPPORTS ALDER HEY TOP NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 2
My Tent or Yours is clearly the pick for this race, but at the odds its a definite no bet for me. Interestingly, he's the only horse in this field that ran at Cheltenham, and considering that was a tough race for him, he's easily opposed. But, is it a no bet race, or will we look elsewhere? I'm looking elsewhere... and considering its got the potential of a sprint finish, FORGOTTEN VOICE has an excellent chance if he settles well. Will be interesting to see how Barry G manages this, but I advise an e/w bet with Ladbrokes at 4-1.
4-1 Best price.
14.30 - JOHN SMITH´S MILDMAY NOVICES´ CHASE GRADE 2
I am totally with a horse who skipped Cheltenham in this... and considering there is only 1, it has to be ROCKY CREEK. The small field will really help as he is 4 from 4 when there are 6 horses or less in the race. People will be wary of the good ground, but I think he just struggled last year at Cheltenham because it was a massive field.
5-2 Best price.
15.05 - JOHN SMITH´S MELLING CHASE GRADE 1
What an excellent race we have in store here. Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar along with another couple, who on their day, can be top quality as well, in For Non Stop and Finian's Rainbow. If there was ever a race Sprinter Sacre might lose, its this. But lets face it, he wont, and I dont want him too either. He's too short to back, but impossible to oppose.
NO BET
15.40 - JOHN SMITH´S TOPHAM CHASE HANDICAP (Grade 3)
The second day, and second race over the National fences. A horse that is tumbling down the weights is my selection in TARTAK. He ran a very good race at Cheltenham and he's gone down another 4 lbs. This horse was a good horse in his day, winning a handicap chase off a mark of 149 back in 2011. He's now going off 130 here and he looks a big price to me.
14-1 Best price.
16.15 - JOHN SMITH´S SEFTON NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1
This isn't a great horse for favourites, but At Fishers Cross looks a very very smart staying Novice. He's beaten The New One before and we all know how well he's franked that form since. However, for me, he's just a little too short to back. Considering he won for me at 3-1 at the festival, I wont be diving in at 11-8. ROAD TO RICHES is the interesting one for me, and he could be absolutely anything. Like At Fishers Cross, he is taking to good ground for the first time, but there are good ground winners in his pedigree and i'd rather take the place money for a horse that has impressed me in his 3 wins from just 3 runs under rules.
8-1 Best price.
16.50 - JOHN SMITH´S DAILY MIRROR PUNTERS CLUB HANDICAP HURDLE (Listed Race)
This race is a bit of a minefield, so its just a small bet, and when I say small, I mean small. But that selection is for PRIMA PORTA, who ran really well at Cheltenham behind Quevega and the return to good ground is no issue at all.
20-1 best price.
17.25 - JOHN SMITH´S MARES´ STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE(Listed Race)
The flat race at Cheltenham is not really one I like to get stuck into, and its the same here. However, OUR POLLYANNA is interesting with Barry G riding for Alan King. I'll have a small bet on that, but its certainly no tip.
16-1 Best price.
That's me done for today. best of luck to all.
The Rascal.
14.00 - ROSE APPEAL SUPPORTS ALDER HEY TOP NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 2
My Tent or Yours is clearly the pick for this race, but at the odds its a definite no bet for me. Interestingly, he's the only horse in this field that ran at Cheltenham, and considering that was a tough race for him, he's easily opposed. But, is it a no bet race, or will we look elsewhere? I'm looking elsewhere... and considering its got the potential of a sprint finish, FORGOTTEN VOICE has an excellent chance if he settles well. Will be interesting to see how Barry G manages this, but I advise an e/w bet with Ladbrokes at 4-1.
4-1 Best price.
14.30 - JOHN SMITH´S MILDMAY NOVICES´ CHASE GRADE 2
I am totally with a horse who skipped Cheltenham in this... and considering there is only 1, it has to be ROCKY CREEK. The small field will really help as he is 4 from 4 when there are 6 horses or less in the race. People will be wary of the good ground, but I think he just struggled last year at Cheltenham because it was a massive field.
5-2 Best price.
15.05 - JOHN SMITH´S MELLING CHASE GRADE 1
What an excellent race we have in store here. Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar along with another couple, who on their day, can be top quality as well, in For Non Stop and Finian's Rainbow. If there was ever a race Sprinter Sacre might lose, its this. But lets face it, he wont, and I dont want him too either. He's too short to back, but impossible to oppose.
NO BET
15.40 - JOHN SMITH´S TOPHAM CHASE HANDICAP (Grade 3)
The second day, and second race over the National fences. A horse that is tumbling down the weights is my selection in TARTAK. He ran a very good race at Cheltenham and he's gone down another 4 lbs. This horse was a good horse in his day, winning a handicap chase off a mark of 149 back in 2011. He's now going off 130 here and he looks a big price to me.
14-1 Best price.
16.15 - JOHN SMITH´S SEFTON NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1
This isn't a great horse for favourites, but At Fishers Cross looks a very very smart staying Novice. He's beaten The New One before and we all know how well he's franked that form since. However, for me, he's just a little too short to back. Considering he won for me at 3-1 at the festival, I wont be diving in at 11-8. ROAD TO RICHES is the interesting one for me, and he could be absolutely anything. Like At Fishers Cross, he is taking to good ground for the first time, but there are good ground winners in his pedigree and i'd rather take the place money for a horse that has impressed me in his 3 wins from just 3 runs under rules.
8-1 Best price.
16.50 - JOHN SMITH´S DAILY MIRROR PUNTERS CLUB HANDICAP HURDLE (Listed Race)
This race is a bit of a minefield, so its just a small bet, and when I say small, I mean small. But that selection is for PRIMA PORTA, who ran really well at Cheltenham behind Quevega and the return to good ground is no issue at all.
20-1 best price.
17.25 - JOHN SMITH´S MARES´ STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE(Listed Race)
The flat race at Cheltenham is not really one I like to get stuck into, and its the same here. However, OUR POLLYANNA is interesting with Barry G riding for Alan King. I'll have a small bet on that, but its certainly no tip.
16-1 Best price.
That's me done for today. best of luck to all.
The Rascal.
Wednesday, 3 April 2013
Aintree Meeting - Day 1
So, who remembers Cheltenham? It feels like it was a long time ago now, but its best to keep your eyes on those that ran there. Its only been 3 weeks so the ones that ran there are more than likely here as an afterthought. 3 weeks isn't a great deal of time to let a horse recover and then get them to peak fitness again, and its towards the end of the season now. I'm not saying they cannot win, because obviously they can, i'm just saying be wary.
So onto the racing.
14.00 - MATALAN ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O JUVENILE HURDLE GRADE 1
The Cheltenham statement above can easily be cast aside for this race because Triumph Hurdle runners have a fairly good record. However, I do feel that IRISH SAINT can be a very good bet. He's back on better ground and has missed Cheltenham so is bound to be fresh as a daisy. He has to turn the form around with Rolling Star but with the flatter track, and better ground, I think he will.
7-2 Best price.
14.30 - BETFRED BOWL CHASE GRADE 1
I think that anyone taking the evens on the favourite Silviniaco Conti needs their heads checking. Yes, he's the best horse in the race, but that means nothing here and Cheltenham Gold Cup runners have an awful record in this race. With that in mind, and the fact he fell at Cheltenham, so you really do not know the extent of the fall, make me look elsewhere without any persuasion. He could easily hose up on form, and he probably deserves to, but at the price? No thank you. So there are only 2 horses here who didn't make it to Cheltenham and 1 of them is my selection. Paul Townend gave QUITO DE LA ROQUE a real peach of a ride at Thurles when riding on him for the first time, and he has some pretty decent course form. He's my stand out e/w selection of the day.
10-1 Best price.
15.05 - JOHN SMITH´S AINTREE HURDLE GRADE 1
Tough race to weigh up this. If Oscar Whisky had ran a better race at Cheltenham then I would have been very keen on him, but its hard to ignore that, even though he's won this the last 2 years. The New One is a very exciting prospect for the future, but he's still a novice, and I wonder if this step up in class is a little too soon. I'm going to stick with my Champion Hurdle selection ZARKANDAR to hopefully repay me back. I still feel he is a classy animal and its as clear as day that this step up in trip will see him in his best light.
5-1 Best price.
15.40 - JOHN SMITH´S FOX HUNTERS´ CHASE
This is not a race to get stuck into betting wise, but it is always a pretty good spectacle. I'll be going with BOLD ADDITION who has impressed me with his 2 hunter chases.
11-2 Best price.
16.15 - MATALAN.CO.UK RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3
Novice chasers normally run well in this race and I will be siding with the Ruby Walsh selection in REBEL REBELLION. He has a nice profile for this race and I feel he can be a better horse than a 140 chaser after this handicap debut.
7-1 Best price.
16.50 - BETFRED MANIFESTO NOVICES´ CHASE GRADE 1
Most people will be looking at Captain Conan and Changing Times for this, being that they both ran creditably in the Jewson last month. However, I have always felt that HIS EXCELLENCY would improve for the extra few furlongs, and I cannot ignore his price especially if it stays with the dead 8.
12-1 Best price.
17.25 - SILVER CROSS HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3
Another race to not go crazy on betting wise, as there are plenty of horses running, and plenty in with a great chance, which I suppose is just stating the obvious. I'll be going with the ultra consistent DOUBLE ROSS who will always run a good race.
20-1 Best price.
Best of luck all.
The Rascal
So onto the racing.
14.00 - MATALAN ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O JUVENILE HURDLE GRADE 1
The Cheltenham statement above can easily be cast aside for this race because Triumph Hurdle runners have a fairly good record. However, I do feel that IRISH SAINT can be a very good bet. He's back on better ground and has missed Cheltenham so is bound to be fresh as a daisy. He has to turn the form around with Rolling Star but with the flatter track, and better ground, I think he will.
7-2 Best price.
14.30 - BETFRED BOWL CHASE GRADE 1
I think that anyone taking the evens on the favourite Silviniaco Conti needs their heads checking. Yes, he's the best horse in the race, but that means nothing here and Cheltenham Gold Cup runners have an awful record in this race. With that in mind, and the fact he fell at Cheltenham, so you really do not know the extent of the fall, make me look elsewhere without any persuasion. He could easily hose up on form, and he probably deserves to, but at the price? No thank you. So there are only 2 horses here who didn't make it to Cheltenham and 1 of them is my selection. Paul Townend gave QUITO DE LA ROQUE a real peach of a ride at Thurles when riding on him for the first time, and he has some pretty decent course form. He's my stand out e/w selection of the day.
10-1 Best price.
15.05 - JOHN SMITH´S AINTREE HURDLE GRADE 1
Tough race to weigh up this. If Oscar Whisky had ran a better race at Cheltenham then I would have been very keen on him, but its hard to ignore that, even though he's won this the last 2 years. The New One is a very exciting prospect for the future, but he's still a novice, and I wonder if this step up in class is a little too soon. I'm going to stick with my Champion Hurdle selection ZARKANDAR to hopefully repay me back. I still feel he is a classy animal and its as clear as day that this step up in trip will see him in his best light.
5-1 Best price.
15.40 - JOHN SMITH´S FOX HUNTERS´ CHASE
This is not a race to get stuck into betting wise, but it is always a pretty good spectacle. I'll be going with BOLD ADDITION who has impressed me with his 2 hunter chases.
11-2 Best price.
16.15 - MATALAN.CO.UK RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3
Novice chasers normally run well in this race and I will be siding with the Ruby Walsh selection in REBEL REBELLION. He has a nice profile for this race and I feel he can be a better horse than a 140 chaser after this handicap debut.
7-1 Best price.
16.50 - BETFRED MANIFESTO NOVICES´ CHASE GRADE 1
Most people will be looking at Captain Conan and Changing Times for this, being that they both ran creditably in the Jewson last month. However, I have always felt that HIS EXCELLENCY would improve for the extra few furlongs, and I cannot ignore his price especially if it stays with the dead 8.
12-1 Best price.
17.25 - SILVER CROSS HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3
Another race to not go crazy on betting wise, as there are plenty of horses running, and plenty in with a great chance, which I suppose is just stating the obvious. I'll be going with the ultra consistent DOUBLE ROSS who will always run a good race.
20-1 Best price.
Best of luck all.
The Rascal
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