Good morning all, and I hope you have a very Merry Christmas. I say this now as it will surely be my last blog before Boxing Day.
14.00 Ascot - Long Walk Hurdle
Its a sad day when this race doesn't include Big Bucks, but for a betting point of view, it makes it a lot more interesting. Smad Place is too short. I have never been a true fan of this horse, and he has always come up short in Group 1's, so at 2-1, its a no go for me. Its a shame that there is a non runner, to make the places down to 2, but I honestly think that Master of the Hall is worth taking a chance on. He will relish the conditions and the distance and the jockey is an obvious plus. I have always rated this horse but his jumping over fences can sometimes be questionable so I am happy to see him return to hurdles.
8-1 Best price.
15.10 Ascot - The Ladbroke Hurdle
20+ runners in a handicap, and a National Hunt race. These are my favorite. I can spend hours looking through the form and trying to find a horse that is well weighted and can run well at a biggish price. I have this down to 2. The horse that I like the most and have decided to back is Its A Gimme. He ran an excellent 2nd last time out and can run well at only 5lbs higher. Even though he's never raced on anything this soft his pedigree suggests he will love it in my opinion and everything looks set for a big run. The other I like is Cash and Go who has a trainer with an excellent record in the race.
10-1 Best price.
13.45 Haydock
Backbenscher has tumbled down the weights and has a terrific record when running on heavy ground. Worth an e/w shot staying over hurdles.
7-1 Best price.
14.15 Haydock
Mac Aeda looks set for a big run here. He's back down to a nice mark and trainer has his horses in nice form. I also like Rich Lord in this, until I saw the trainer. Its just a rule, but I never back anything trained by Ferdy Murphy.
8-1 Best price.
Footy treble
Tottenham - Ipswich - Coventry
Roughly 11-2
Best of luck all!
The Rascal
Saturday, 22 December 2012
Saturday, 8 December 2012
Tingle Creek Day
Good morning all. Hope you've all had a profitable week. I have a few selections today, that I have personally backed...
14.10 Aintree - Becher Chase
This is my main bet today. I whittled this down to 3 horses; Any Currency, West End Rocker and Poker De Silvola. I am not a big fan of backing anything of Ferdy Murphy, and although he looks well handicapped, and in my opinion will take to the fences, I do not believe this is his ground... so for that, along with the 'Ferdy Factor' he's off the list. Now, West End Rocker won this race last year pretty impressively, which propelled him into favoritism for the Grand National. However, he fell at the first there, and then ran a highly disappointing race at Sandown after, where he pulled up which leads me to believe that last year he was just 100% for it. Also, he has won all his races under Wayne Hutchinson, who is not there today. So therefore, its with ANY CURRENCY. Any Currency hits pretty much all of the trends for this race, and is clearly here for a taster of the fences before the Grand National in April. The trip will definitely suit and although not 100% convincing on the heavy ground, I do feel he'll be ok on it.
16-1 Best price
14.30 Sandown
IFANDBUTWHYNOT was very impressive in his last win, and the 2nd won this week after being raised 5lbs, so you would think that my selection can take to the extra 13lbs. He's great on the ground, very progressive and looks set for a big race.
3-1 Best price
15.40 Sandown
This is a race where you need a dour stayer, especially in these ground conditions. My selection is certainly that. MAJOR MALARKEY can stay 4 miles plus, so with the heavy ground, this should be spot on for him.
5-1 Best price.
Thats it for me... will speak to you all a bit later.
Best of luck!
The Rascal
14.10 Aintree - Becher Chase
This is my main bet today. I whittled this down to 3 horses; Any Currency, West End Rocker and Poker De Silvola. I am not a big fan of backing anything of Ferdy Murphy, and although he looks well handicapped, and in my opinion will take to the fences, I do not believe this is his ground... so for that, along with the 'Ferdy Factor' he's off the list. Now, West End Rocker won this race last year pretty impressively, which propelled him into favoritism for the Grand National. However, he fell at the first there, and then ran a highly disappointing race at Sandown after, where he pulled up which leads me to believe that last year he was just 100% for it. Also, he has won all his races under Wayne Hutchinson, who is not there today. So therefore, its with ANY CURRENCY. Any Currency hits pretty much all of the trends for this race, and is clearly here for a taster of the fences before the Grand National in April. The trip will definitely suit and although not 100% convincing on the heavy ground, I do feel he'll be ok on it.
16-1 Best price
14.30 Sandown
IFANDBUTWHYNOT was very impressive in his last win, and the 2nd won this week after being raised 5lbs, so you would think that my selection can take to the extra 13lbs. He's great on the ground, very progressive and looks set for a big race.
3-1 Best price
15.40 Sandown
This is a race where you need a dour stayer, especially in these ground conditions. My selection is certainly that. MAJOR MALARKEY can stay 4 miles plus, so with the heavy ground, this should be spot on for him.
5-1 Best price.
Thats it for me... will speak to you all a bit later.
Best of luck!
The Rascal
Saturday, 17 November 2012
Paddy Power Gold Cup Day
Good morning all and welcome to The Rascal blog. I'll be concentrating on Cheltenham today with a selection elsewhere too.
12.45 - Cheltenham
We'll start here, in the first race at Cheltenham which may as well be called 'Paul Nicholls Race'. PN has won this race the last 2 years and I certainly feel the hat-trick is on the cards with Far West. He was very impressive at Chepstow last time out and even though its a short price, its worthy.
13-8 Best Price
13.20 - Cheltenham
Masters Hill went into my one to follow notebook this year after his chase debut last month. He jumped beautifully and didn't put a foot wrong. This isn't an easy race which is probably shown in his price, but I think he'll run a cracker.
7-1 Best Price
13.55 - Cheltenham
Galaxy Rock is showing that Cheltenham is his track, with 2 wins and a 2nd in his last 3 visits here. His 2nd last time out was a good performance and with these few extra furlongs I can see him finishing strongly with McCoy's drive.
7-1 Best Price
14.35 - Cheltenham
I've already mentioned this week that I like Walkon, and yesterday I backed him (at 8-1). The only time to catch this horse is when fresh. He has finished 1st, 2nd and 1st in his first start for the season, and at the weights he looks an excellent each way bet. We know that Grand Crus wasn't at his best in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham but Walkon only finished a neck behind him that day, and receives a stone in weight today. One at a big price is Poquelin whose record at this track is outstanding and he is tumbling down the weights.
8-1 Best Price
15.05 - Cheltenham
In this race we have a horse that was good enough to run in an Aintree Hurdle and has a Group 2 novice hurdle to his name. He has been out for over a year but his trainer is not shy at training a horse to be ready fresh. Granted he might not stay up the hill, but at the prices i'm happy to stake a small wager. That horse is Bouggler.
25-1 Best Price
15.40 - Cheltenham
Kings Destiny came to hurdling with a huge reputation, especially after winning a flat race at Ascot off a mark of 100. However, he hasn't shined at all in maiden hurdles after going off at short prices. He's now in a handicap off an OK mark, and I can see him running well now.
9-1 Best Price.
14.15 - Lingfield
Genzy looked like he was desperate for his reappearance last month, and who can blame him, being out of action for over a year. I'm expecting improvement today.
8-1 Best Price
Footy Four Fold
Man United, Bolton, Bournmouth and Hearts.
Roughly 13-2
Best of luck to all.
12.45 - Cheltenham
We'll start here, in the first race at Cheltenham which may as well be called 'Paul Nicholls Race'. PN has won this race the last 2 years and I certainly feel the hat-trick is on the cards with Far West. He was very impressive at Chepstow last time out and even though its a short price, its worthy.
13-8 Best Price
13.20 - Cheltenham
Masters Hill went into my one to follow notebook this year after his chase debut last month. He jumped beautifully and didn't put a foot wrong. This isn't an easy race which is probably shown in his price, but I think he'll run a cracker.
7-1 Best Price
13.55 - Cheltenham
Galaxy Rock is showing that Cheltenham is his track, with 2 wins and a 2nd in his last 3 visits here. His 2nd last time out was a good performance and with these few extra furlongs I can see him finishing strongly with McCoy's drive.
7-1 Best Price
14.35 - Cheltenham
I've already mentioned this week that I like Walkon, and yesterday I backed him (at 8-1). The only time to catch this horse is when fresh. He has finished 1st, 2nd and 1st in his first start for the season, and at the weights he looks an excellent each way bet. We know that Grand Crus wasn't at his best in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham but Walkon only finished a neck behind him that day, and receives a stone in weight today. One at a big price is Poquelin whose record at this track is outstanding and he is tumbling down the weights.
8-1 Best Price
15.05 - Cheltenham
In this race we have a horse that was good enough to run in an Aintree Hurdle and has a Group 2 novice hurdle to his name. He has been out for over a year but his trainer is not shy at training a horse to be ready fresh. Granted he might not stay up the hill, but at the prices i'm happy to stake a small wager. That horse is Bouggler.
25-1 Best Price
15.40 - Cheltenham
Kings Destiny came to hurdling with a huge reputation, especially after winning a flat race at Ascot off a mark of 100. However, he hasn't shined at all in maiden hurdles after going off at short prices. He's now in a handicap off an OK mark, and I can see him running well now.
9-1 Best Price.
14.15 - Lingfield
Genzy looked like he was desperate for his reappearance last month, and who can blame him, being out of action for over a year. I'm expecting improvement today.
8-1 Best Price
Footy Four Fold
Man United, Bolton, Bournmouth and Hearts.
Roughly 13-2
Best of luck to all.
Saturday, 3 November 2012
Saturday Breeders Cup 2012
Good evening. Before I get ready to go out, I thought I would pass on my thoughts for the Breeders Cup tonight.
I will give reasons behind my best bets, and the strongly fancied ones.
18.50
Noble Tune has 2 wins from 2 to his name, and clocking up quick times. Chad Brown had a good day yesterday and at 9-1, this is a fantastic price. Dundonnell looks a little too short for my liking and Noble Tune will also relish the rapid ground.
9-1 Best price.
19.35
Dust and Diamonds e/w
20.14
Fed Biz will be happy to come back to this course where he has been prolific. He is also not scared of a battle which is like to happen here in this tight contest.
6-1 Best price.
20.57
Corporate Jungle likes to leave it late, and with the likely pace, we could see him flying at the end. Well worth a bet at the price.
15-1 Best price.
21.36
Shanghai Bobby
22.18
St Nicolas Abbey. Its very rare that I back favorites. I'm not saying it never happens, but I only do it if I feel that they are worthy. This guy is. His win last year and all the other times he's raced left handed on fast ground have been highly impressive. He will take some beating tonight and is my best bet.
7-2 Best price.
22.58
Capital Account. Another to be held up off a strong pace, I cannot imagine this will be out of first 3.
7-1 Best price.
23.40
Ok, so I will not be having a bet on this race. Excelebration is class, so is Wise Dan and you could argue that Moonlight Cloud is too. I do not think that MC will like the ground. WD will love it but I think that Excelebration is a better horse. If I had to put my money down i'd go Wise Dan, but I want Excelebration. Can you see why no bet for me??
12.35
No bet. Looks a real tricky race to call.
Best of luck all.
I will give reasons behind my best bets, and the strongly fancied ones.
18.50
Noble Tune has 2 wins from 2 to his name, and clocking up quick times. Chad Brown had a good day yesterday and at 9-1, this is a fantastic price. Dundonnell looks a little too short for my liking and Noble Tune will also relish the rapid ground.
9-1 Best price.
19.35
Dust and Diamonds e/w
20.14
Fed Biz will be happy to come back to this course where he has been prolific. He is also not scared of a battle which is like to happen here in this tight contest.
6-1 Best price.
20.57
Corporate Jungle likes to leave it late, and with the likely pace, we could see him flying at the end. Well worth a bet at the price.
15-1 Best price.
21.36
Shanghai Bobby
22.18
St Nicolas Abbey. Its very rare that I back favorites. I'm not saying it never happens, but I only do it if I feel that they are worthy. This guy is. His win last year and all the other times he's raced left handed on fast ground have been highly impressive. He will take some beating tonight and is my best bet.
7-2 Best price.
22.58
Capital Account. Another to be held up off a strong pace, I cannot imagine this will be out of first 3.
7-1 Best price.
23.40
Ok, so I will not be having a bet on this race. Excelebration is class, so is Wise Dan and you could argue that Moonlight Cloud is too. I do not think that MC will like the ground. WD will love it but I think that Excelebration is a better horse. If I had to put my money down i'd go Wise Dan, but I want Excelebration. Can you see why no bet for me??
12.35
No bet. Looks a real tricky race to call.
Best of luck all.
Saturday, 27 October 2012
Saturday - Racing Post Trophy Day
Good morning all, I have a few horse bets to share with you today, along with a footy treble.
15.05 Doncaster - Racing Post Trophy
The huge gamble of the race is the supplemented Kingsbarns for Aiden O'Brien. This horse has had one race and won impressively of soft ground. The gamble probably comes from the fact that AOB has won 2 of the last 3 runnings with Camelot and St Nicolas Abbey. I cannot be having this horse at 2-1 as the form of his maiden isn't exactly stunning? I will be siding with the Hannon horse Van Der Neer. He beat a decent type at Leicester and clocked up quite a nice time on soft. Its also worth noting that Van Der Neer was also supplemented for this.
6-1 Best price with Betvictor.
14.15 Newbury
Quite an intriguing 2 year old race here. A case can be made for a fair few, but the one I have sided with is Odooj. Providing he gets out of the stools with no bother, he should run a really good race stepped up in trip.
5-1 Best price with Boylesports.
14.45 Newbury
Noble Mission for me here. With a lot of pace in the race, I'm happy to side with a relatively held up horse. He's the joint highest rated horse in this and is probably the best if running to form. The soft ground isn't an issue and should run a cracking race.
4-1 Best price with WilliamHill
15.30 Aintree
I am all over Gauvain in this. New yard with Hobbs will be a great move, the last few seasons he's been very good when fresh. Happy with this selection.
7-1 Best price with Betvictor
Footy 4 Fold
Arsenal - Cardiff - Leicester - Brentford
Pretty standard those - Pays just under 5-1.
15.05 Doncaster - Racing Post Trophy
The huge gamble of the race is the supplemented Kingsbarns for Aiden O'Brien. This horse has had one race and won impressively of soft ground. The gamble probably comes from the fact that AOB has won 2 of the last 3 runnings with Camelot and St Nicolas Abbey. I cannot be having this horse at 2-1 as the form of his maiden isn't exactly stunning? I will be siding with the Hannon horse Van Der Neer. He beat a decent type at Leicester and clocked up quite a nice time on soft. Its also worth noting that Van Der Neer was also supplemented for this.
6-1 Best price with Betvictor.
14.15 Newbury
Quite an intriguing 2 year old race here. A case can be made for a fair few, but the one I have sided with is Odooj. Providing he gets out of the stools with no bother, he should run a really good race stepped up in trip.
5-1 Best price with Boylesports.
14.45 Newbury
Noble Mission for me here. With a lot of pace in the race, I'm happy to side with a relatively held up horse. He's the joint highest rated horse in this and is probably the best if running to form. The soft ground isn't an issue and should run a cracking race.
4-1 Best price with WilliamHill
15.30 Aintree
I am all over Gauvain in this. New yard with Hobbs will be a great move, the last few seasons he's been very good when fresh. Happy with this selection.
7-1 Best price with Betvictor
Footy 4 Fold
Arsenal - Cardiff - Leicester - Brentford
Pretty standard those - Pays just under 5-1.
Sunday, 14 October 2012
PATTISON CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL STAKES (GRADE 1)
I had one bet this afternoon and that was a real failure. I looked at the racing and after a relatively poor day yesterday, I decided to leave UK/Irish racing bar that one race. For your information, my one bet was Mr Cracker in the Munster National, he pulled up.
Anyway, my main reason for the blog is for the Canadian International Stakes tonight at 10.44.
Firstly, I could not, even with someone elses money, back Imperial Monarch at 2-1/9-4. This is completely unknown ground and he would have had a long journey to get there. No doubt the horse has class, but I strongly feel there are more negatives that positives.
The 2nd favorite Reliable Man also has issues with the ground in my opinion, and I also feel that this distance stretches him a tad too far. So I also believe this horse is too short in price.
Dandino, Wigmore Hill and Joshua Tree are all in line and vying for 3rd favoritism. Out of the 3, Wigmore Hill is the obvious choice given his form at the C&D but there was an unlucky loser in Wigmores last win, and that is my selection.
Forte Dei Marmi has been steadily improving this year and he has always been a lover of the firmer ground. FDM finished 3rd and just over 1 length behind Wigmore Hall after suffering interference and then finishing strongly. This was also his first time at this distance and I feel at the prices, he is a cracking e/w bet.
Best of luck all.
Anyway, my main reason for the blog is for the Canadian International Stakes tonight at 10.44.
Firstly, I could not, even with someone elses money, back Imperial Monarch at 2-1/9-4. This is completely unknown ground and he would have had a long journey to get there. No doubt the horse has class, but I strongly feel there are more negatives that positives.
The 2nd favorite Reliable Man also has issues with the ground in my opinion, and I also feel that this distance stretches him a tad too far. So I also believe this horse is too short in price.
Dandino, Wigmore Hill and Joshua Tree are all in line and vying for 3rd favoritism. Out of the 3, Wigmore Hill is the obvious choice given his form at the C&D but there was an unlucky loser in Wigmores last win, and that is my selection.
Forte Dei Marmi has been steadily improving this year and he has always been a lover of the firmer ground. FDM finished 3rd and just over 1 length behind Wigmore Hall after suffering interference and then finishing strongly. This was also his first time at this distance and I feel at the prices, he is a cracking e/w bet.
Best of luck all.
Saturday, 22 September 2012
Horse Racing & Football Saturday 22nd September
Good morning all, and happy Saturday.
As usual I only have a few selections on the horses today, and a usual football treble.
14.35 Newbury
Quite a nice Mill Reef this year, and certainly one I can get stuck into. I am really keen on the Irish raider COUGAR RIDGE who, with a lot more luck in running would have a Group 3 winners medal on his CV. The timings of her runs have been fairly quick and I feel she is open to even more improvement.
9-2 Best price with Bet365
Unplaced
15.45 Newbury
12 runners in a tough sprint. You may ask why I am even attempting to find the winner in this? To be honest, even I am questioning this myself. However, SWISS SPIRIT is a horse I always felt would be very good and better at the minimum distance. With a better ride from Spencer last time out and she would have been a lot closer in another Group 3. Big chance in my opinion.
6-1 Best price with Bet365
WINNER
15.30 Ayr - GOLD CUP
I have this race whittled down to 2. I feel both have an excellent chance on the ground and both look to have been running with this as their top priority. I do not normally do this, but I will be backing them both as I cannot split them. They are MORACHE MUSIC and CAPTAIN RAMIUS. Moranche Music has been off since July, which is a slight concern for this but has everything else in place for a big run. Captain Ramius is trained by Kevin Ryan who likes to target this race and also has pretty much everything going for her to point to a good run.
18-1 Best price with Bet365 for Captain Ramius
WINNER
25-1 Best price with various bookmakers for Morache Music
Unplaced
Footy treble
Chelsea, West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield Wednesday pays just over 5-1 with PaddyPower
Best of luck all.
The Rascal
As usual I only have a few selections on the horses today, and a usual football treble.
14.35 Newbury
Quite a nice Mill Reef this year, and certainly one I can get stuck into. I am really keen on the Irish raider COUGAR RIDGE who, with a lot more luck in running would have a Group 3 winners medal on his CV. The timings of her runs have been fairly quick and I feel she is open to even more improvement.
9-2 Best price with Bet365
Unplaced
15.45 Newbury
12 runners in a tough sprint. You may ask why I am even attempting to find the winner in this? To be honest, even I am questioning this myself. However, SWISS SPIRIT is a horse I always felt would be very good and better at the minimum distance. With a better ride from Spencer last time out and she would have been a lot closer in another Group 3. Big chance in my opinion.
6-1 Best price with Bet365
WINNER
15.30 Ayr - GOLD CUP
I have this race whittled down to 2. I feel both have an excellent chance on the ground and both look to have been running with this as their top priority. I do not normally do this, but I will be backing them both as I cannot split them. They are MORACHE MUSIC and CAPTAIN RAMIUS. Moranche Music has been off since July, which is a slight concern for this but has everything else in place for a big run. Captain Ramius is trained by Kevin Ryan who likes to target this race and also has pretty much everything going for her to point to a good run.
18-1 Best price with Bet365 for Captain Ramius
WINNER
25-1 Best price with various bookmakers for Morache Music
Unplaced
Footy treble
Chelsea, West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield Wednesday pays just over 5-1 with PaddyPower
Best of luck all.
The Rascal
Thursday, 13 September 2012
Donny Day 3 & St Leger Day
As I will be with no access to any internet (well, none for form) I am putting Fridays thoughts and also what I think of the St Leger now.
Friday
13.15
I am still under the impression that SIR PRANCELOT is a very decent sort. With the drop back to the minimum trip, everything is in his favour. Also, the drying ground will be a big plus.
3-1 Best price with Bet365 as of 7pm Thursday evening.
13.50
The old boy BLUE BAJAN didn't have the best of runs LTO and with a clearer run will have a big chance here running off the same mark.
12-1 Best price with PaddyPower as of 7pm Thursday evening.
14.20
MASKED MARVEL is back to where he won the St Leger last year and is going up significantly in trip. I think that he will stay and is definitely worth an e/w bet. However, I would keep it small as there can be a case to be made for many of them.
8-1 Best price with BetVictor as of 7pm Thursday evening.
14.55
I will not betting in this race as I cannot see past CERTIFY, but he is too short for me to bet in a 2 year old race.
NO BET
Saturday
14.25
Clearly Dundonnell has an excellent chance and maybe I am being silly in going against him again, but at the prices and the fact that I feel TORONADO is a serious horse, I have to side with him.
11-4 Best price with PaddyPower as of 7pm Thursday evening.
15.40 St Leger
I may have egg on my face here afterwards, but I find it mental that people are actually backing against CAMELOT. I'm not saying this is a wonder horse or anything, but its certainly better than anything here and I fully expect him to win well. Also, this isn't at all a tip, just my thoughts!
NO BET - If I was watching the market I'd look for a distance bet, but I cant :-(.
Best of luck all!
The Rascal
Friday
13.15
I am still under the impression that SIR PRANCELOT is a very decent sort. With the drop back to the minimum trip, everything is in his favour. Also, the drying ground will be a big plus.
3-1 Best price with Bet365 as of 7pm Thursday evening.
13.50
The old boy BLUE BAJAN didn't have the best of runs LTO and with a clearer run will have a big chance here running off the same mark.
12-1 Best price with PaddyPower as of 7pm Thursday evening.
14.20
MASKED MARVEL is back to where he won the St Leger last year and is going up significantly in trip. I think that he will stay and is definitely worth an e/w bet. However, I would keep it small as there can be a case to be made for many of them.
8-1 Best price with BetVictor as of 7pm Thursday evening.
14.55
I will not betting in this race as I cannot see past CERTIFY, but he is too short for me to bet in a 2 year old race.
NO BET
Saturday
14.25
Clearly Dundonnell has an excellent chance and maybe I am being silly in going against him again, but at the prices and the fact that I feel TORONADO is a serious horse, I have to side with him.
11-4 Best price with PaddyPower as of 7pm Thursday evening.
15.40 St Leger
I may have egg on my face here afterwards, but I find it mental that people are actually backing against CAMELOT. I'm not saying this is a wonder horse or anything, but its certainly better than anything here and I fully expect him to win well. Also, this isn't at all a tip, just my thoughts!
NO BET - If I was watching the market I'd look for a distance bet, but I cant :-(.
Best of luck all!
The Rascal
Donny St Leger Day 2
Good morning all. Its nice to have a few days off work to be able to concentrate on the racing.
13.15
What an extremely tough race to start the day off. I will not be going in with very much in this, but the one I like is PURE EXCELLENCE at e/w. I am inclined to forgive the last run as something must have been amiss. His race in the one before where he was behind The Gold Cheongsam was more of his true self and that was a better race than this.
10-1 Best price with Boylesports.
3rd - Good run
13.50
Ok, I was mistaken, this is even tougher than the first race. Its not one that I myself will be having a bet in but if you were interested in a small outsider I feel SUNDAY TIMES could run a good race if finding last years form.
NO BET
1st - Still gutted I didn't back it in the end
14.20
Hmm, so the races are just getting tougher and tougher today... but there is one in here that I will be backing. HOTOTO has proven many times this year he's a smart sort and has only been out of the places once, when it was really heavy. He has already beaten many of these this year so what's to say he wont again?
7-1 Best price with various bookmakers.
Unplaced - didn't see out the trip
14.55
A lot more straight forward race to assess. The top two in the market deserve their places, but I'll be going with the more forgotten horse in KAILANI. It looks fair to say that this horse needs softish ground, but with the rain yesterday it should be nice ground for her. Also, I have always felt this would be her perfect trip.
8-1 Best price with various bookmakers.
Last (I think) - Poor show
15.30
ENNISTOWN looks from his debut to have a lot more improvement in him. I fully expect him to be on the ball today a lot earlier and finish well again.
13-2 Best price with BetVictor
Unplaced - Keep on your side, he will win races
16.05
I think that we could possibly see another typical Jamie Spencer ride here. AMADEUS WOLFE TONE if held up will run a big big race. Shane Kelly couldn't have done anything worse than he did in his last race and with Spencer up, I expect him to get very close.
15-2 Best price with BlueSq
1st - Nicely does it by Spencer
16.35
BLACK SPIRIT for me in the last. Has been improving without actually winning, today could be the day.
100-30 Best price with Bet365
1st - Messy race, but a win is a win
Best of luck to all today.
The Rascal
13.15
What an extremely tough race to start the day off. I will not be going in with very much in this, but the one I like is PURE EXCELLENCE at e/w. I am inclined to forgive the last run as something must have been amiss. His race in the one before where he was behind The Gold Cheongsam was more of his true self and that was a better race than this.
10-1 Best price with Boylesports.
3rd - Good run
13.50
Ok, I was mistaken, this is even tougher than the first race. Its not one that I myself will be having a bet in but if you were interested in a small outsider I feel SUNDAY TIMES could run a good race if finding last years form.
NO BET
1st - Still gutted I didn't back it in the end
14.20
Hmm, so the races are just getting tougher and tougher today... but there is one in here that I will be backing. HOTOTO has proven many times this year he's a smart sort and has only been out of the places once, when it was really heavy. He has already beaten many of these this year so what's to say he wont again?
7-1 Best price with various bookmakers.
Unplaced - didn't see out the trip
14.55
A lot more straight forward race to assess. The top two in the market deserve their places, but I'll be going with the more forgotten horse in KAILANI. It looks fair to say that this horse needs softish ground, but with the rain yesterday it should be nice ground for her. Also, I have always felt this would be her perfect trip.
8-1 Best price with various bookmakers.
Last (I think) - Poor show
15.30
ENNISTOWN looks from his debut to have a lot more improvement in him. I fully expect him to be on the ball today a lot earlier and finish well again.
13-2 Best price with BetVictor
Unplaced - Keep on your side, he will win races
16.05
I think that we could possibly see another typical Jamie Spencer ride here. AMADEUS WOLFE TONE if held up will run a big big race. Shane Kelly couldn't have done anything worse than he did in his last race and with Spencer up, I expect him to get very close.
15-2 Best price with BlueSq
1st - Nicely does it by Spencer
16.35
BLACK SPIRIT for me in the last. Has been improving without actually winning, today could be the day.
100-30 Best price with Bet365
1st - Messy race, but a win is a win
Best of luck to all today.
The Rascal
Wednesday, 12 September 2012
Andy Murray - US Open Champion
Its a summers evening in 1999. I'm playing in a doubles match for my club in the North Kent League. It doesn't take long for me to realise that the young lad opposite me has some seriously good technique. Its only because he is just 13 years old and his partner (who happens to be his dad) was just not as good as us are the reasons we won 6-1, 6-2. After the game over a drink I speak to the boy. It turns out he is number 3 in the UK at under 14's. WOW, in my excitement I ask him if he will make it professionally, he said he hoped so, however, in a private conversation with his dad, his dad explained that the boys ahead of him are something special and are brothers from Scotland called Andy and Jamie Murray.
If we fast forward to 2005, I'm travelling across Africa on a truck. The BBC World Service is playing and during the news I hear that a young brit of 18 called Andy Murray has been knocked out by David Nalbandian in the 3rd round of Wimbledon. I'm sure you can imagine my excitement at this, as even though its the first time in 6 years I had heard that name, I had remembered it and the above match's memory came flooding back.
Now, I am an amateur tennis player and a qualified LTA coach so tennis is a passion. I have since spent 7 years arguing with many friends, colleagues and family that this Andy Murray would win a grand slam in his career and that I'd assume the US Open would be his first, although, I admit, I never expected it to take so long. Why so many people dislike Andy Murray is beyond me. I applaud this man, who has taken hatred from the public (mainly just because he is Scottish) and the pressure from the media in his stride. He has also laughed in the faces of people who believe he should have more of a personality, or should be more 'bubbly' on camera. Why exactly? Why ask him to be any different than he is? If you are ever lucky enough to see Andy Murray in a training session you will see clearly that he has a sense of humour, can be jolly, but this is in his own time and not just because the public expect it.
You do not have to be an avid tennis fan to see that the appointment of Ivan Lendl has been a major impact in this victory, but you cannot argue that the class has always been there.
Well done Andy Murray, a true champion.
The Rascal
If we fast forward to 2005, I'm travelling across Africa on a truck. The BBC World Service is playing and during the news I hear that a young brit of 18 called Andy Murray has been knocked out by David Nalbandian in the 3rd round of Wimbledon. I'm sure you can imagine my excitement at this, as even though its the first time in 6 years I had heard that name, I had remembered it and the above match's memory came flooding back.
Now, I am an amateur tennis player and a qualified LTA coach so tennis is a passion. I have since spent 7 years arguing with many friends, colleagues and family that this Andy Murray would win a grand slam in his career and that I'd assume the US Open would be his first, although, I admit, I never expected it to take so long. Why so many people dislike Andy Murray is beyond me. I applaud this man, who has taken hatred from the public (mainly just because he is Scottish) and the pressure from the media in his stride. He has also laughed in the faces of people who believe he should have more of a personality, or should be more 'bubbly' on camera. Why exactly? Why ask him to be any different than he is? If you are ever lucky enough to see Andy Murray in a training session you will see clearly that he has a sense of humour, can be jolly, but this is in his own time and not just because the public expect it.
You do not have to be an avid tennis fan to see that the appointment of Ivan Lendl has been a major impact in this victory, but you cannot argue that the class has always been there.
Well done Andy Murray, a true champion.
The Rascal
Saturday, 1 September 2012
Racing & Football Saturday 1st September
Hello and good morning to all. Not the most inspiring days racing for a Saturday, but there are a couple that have taken my fancy.
14.30 Chester
Quite a tough little handicap this, but I was taken by Area Fifty One's Ebor run last week. This horse has made significant improvement over the last couple of years and last weeks run was the first time stepped up to this trip. Maybe he didn't quite see out the trip last week, but that shouldn't be a problem at Chester and he runs off the same mark.
13-2 Best price with BetVictor.
15.05 Chester
Imperial Djay is definitely a course specialist here with 3 wins and a place from 5 runs. At the prices its well worth an e/w bet.
12-1 Best price with Bet365.
14.50 Sandown
Probably the best race today. I am looking forward to seeing some of these horses again, but none more so than Master of War who steps up to 7 furlongs. I believe he will relish this extra furlong and I take him to win this today.
5-2 Best price with SportingBet.
Football Treble
Today I am going with Wigan, Ipswich and Stevenage at just over 8-1.
Best of luck all.
14.30 Chester
Quite a tough little handicap this, but I was taken by Area Fifty One's Ebor run last week. This horse has made significant improvement over the last couple of years and last weeks run was the first time stepped up to this trip. Maybe he didn't quite see out the trip last week, but that shouldn't be a problem at Chester and he runs off the same mark.
13-2 Best price with BetVictor.
15.05 Chester
Imperial Djay is definitely a course specialist here with 3 wins and a place from 5 runs. At the prices its well worth an e/w bet.
12-1 Best price with Bet365.
14.50 Sandown
Probably the best race today. I am looking forward to seeing some of these horses again, but none more so than Master of War who steps up to 7 furlongs. I believe he will relish this extra furlong and I take him to win this today.
5-2 Best price with SportingBet.
Football Treble
Today I am going with Wigan, Ipswich and Stevenage at just over 8-1.
Best of luck all.
Friday, 24 August 2012
Ebor Day
Hello to all. For those that have followed me this week are probably going to ignore me tomorrow/today (whenever you are reading this), and personally, I cannot blame you. I know when I am not firing, and at the moment I'm not.
I will only be having 3 bets on the horses tomorrow, along with a footy treble.
15.05 York
Personally I think that Saddlers Rock will probably win this. I say probably, as there are no dead certs in racing (baring Frankel of course). He's likely to go off as short favourite so unless you want to play with serious money, and are very confident of his chances, I'd look for some each way value. Now, I am in no way saying that with a clearer run TIMES UP would have won last time out, but he certainly would have got a lot closer and maybe placed. Even though I am a fan of Eddie Ahern, I feel that William Buick will be superb for Times Up and I would be very surprised if he doesn't place. Nice price.
16-1 Best price with Bet365. (price as of 8pm Friday night)
15.40 York (Ebor)
I had this race whittled down to 3 horses. They were, Motivado, Qahriman and Number Theory. I think that all 3 have a very good chance here but I'll stick to my strategy and only back one of them. The Grand National is the only race where I select more. I think that if you cannot put your faith into one horse, then its best to leave alone. Sadly, there is a trend for this race where it states quite clearly 'best to stick to horses drawn in the top 7'. All 3 of my horses are much lower, and my selection is actually in stall 1 :-( however, I think there is still a lot of reasons to back him, especially as he's a held up horse. QAHRIMAN is very lightly raced, has never been out of the top 3 in handicaps, has very good course and distance form and has only been penalised 6lbs for that easy C&D form. Also, to put the icing on the cake, Luca Cumani has a good record in the race.
6-1 Best price with SportingBet. (price as of 8pm Friday night)
14.45 Goodwood
ARNOLD LANE ran a good little race last time out behind a very good progressive horse. Handicapper has been lenient with only a 1lb rise, and I feel that with a little give in the ground this horse could run a very good race.
9-1 Best price with Blue Square. (price as of 8pm Friday night)
Footy Treble
I'll be going with 3 newly promoted sides this weekend as I think they have started promising and can continue with their good form.
Charlton, Sheffield Wednesday and Southampton
For this treble you can get odds of just shy of 10-1 with paddypower.
Best of luck all. Hope you all have a very profitable day.
The Rascal.
I will only be having 3 bets on the horses tomorrow, along with a footy treble.
15.05 York
Personally I think that Saddlers Rock will probably win this. I say probably, as there are no dead certs in racing (baring Frankel of course). He's likely to go off as short favourite so unless you want to play with serious money, and are very confident of his chances, I'd look for some each way value. Now, I am in no way saying that with a clearer run TIMES UP would have won last time out, but he certainly would have got a lot closer and maybe placed. Even though I am a fan of Eddie Ahern, I feel that William Buick will be superb for Times Up and I would be very surprised if he doesn't place. Nice price.
16-1 Best price with Bet365. (price as of 8pm Friday night)
15.40 York (Ebor)
I had this race whittled down to 3 horses. They were, Motivado, Qahriman and Number Theory. I think that all 3 have a very good chance here but I'll stick to my strategy and only back one of them. The Grand National is the only race where I select more. I think that if you cannot put your faith into one horse, then its best to leave alone. Sadly, there is a trend for this race where it states quite clearly 'best to stick to horses drawn in the top 7'. All 3 of my horses are much lower, and my selection is actually in stall 1 :-( however, I think there is still a lot of reasons to back him, especially as he's a held up horse. QAHRIMAN is very lightly raced, has never been out of the top 3 in handicaps, has very good course and distance form and has only been penalised 6lbs for that easy C&D form. Also, to put the icing on the cake, Luca Cumani has a good record in the race.
6-1 Best price with SportingBet. (price as of 8pm Friday night)
14.45 Goodwood
ARNOLD LANE ran a good little race last time out behind a very good progressive horse. Handicapper has been lenient with only a 1lb rise, and I feel that with a little give in the ground this horse could run a very good race.
9-1 Best price with Blue Square. (price as of 8pm Friday night)
Footy Treble
I'll be going with 3 newly promoted sides this weekend as I think they have started promising and can continue with their good form.
Charlton, Sheffield Wednesday and Southampton
For this treble you can get odds of just shy of 10-1 with paddypower.
Best of luck all. Hope you all have a very profitable day.
The Rascal.
Wednesday, 22 August 2012
York Ebor Festival - Day 1
Well. Good morning all, and welcome to the return of The Rascal Blog. I've had a few months off, but I am back now and hoping to be back with a bang.
14.00 York
What a tough, tough race to try to stake my claim back amongst the winners today. I think the best bet here is to find a horse to place, so e/w all the way here especially with bookies paying 4 places. As usual for these big field sprint races, we have many that can be shortlisted. I have whittled my selections down to just the one. That horse is Ponty Acclaim. This Tim Easterby filly has pretty good course form and is coming back down to a sensible mark. Trainer is in pretty good form and the horse/jockey get on well. Good e/w bet in my eyes.
Best price - 22-1 with Sporting Bet.
14.30 York
5 runners here and 4 have very good chances. My selection is Ebn Arab as this horse was extremely impressive over C&D on his debut, and he really couldn't have won any better. The 2nd and 5th in that race, although probably no world beaters, have both come out and won since to frank the form.
Best price - 11-4 with Ladbrokes.
15.05 York
My best bet of the day goes in this race. Main Sequence was incredibly unlucky in his last outing over in France where he had to check back a couple of times... before that the only horse to ever beat him was Camelot, in the Derby. He has a great chance of getting back on track today and is my NAP.
Best price - 2-1 with Victor Chandler
15.40 York
I am well and truly in the Frankel camp and will be watching him win again today. If you fancy a bet in this race though, I've gone for Sri Putra e/w in the market without Frankel.
Best price - 16-1 with Paddy Power (e/w without Frankel)
16.15 York
My selection for this 2 miler, and NB for the meeting, is Cape Express. I feel the trip was a little too long last time out, even though he still ran creditably... The 5lbs off from Darren Egan too is excellent.
Best price - 9-1 with various bookmakers.
16.50 York
I think that Hajras still has a lot more to offer in this sphere. 6lbs might not be enough of a rise to stop him.
Best price - 8-1 with Victor Chandler.
Best of luck to all today.
14.00 York
What a tough, tough race to try to stake my claim back amongst the winners today. I think the best bet here is to find a horse to place, so e/w all the way here especially with bookies paying 4 places. As usual for these big field sprint races, we have many that can be shortlisted. I have whittled my selections down to just the one. That horse is Ponty Acclaim. This Tim Easterby filly has pretty good course form and is coming back down to a sensible mark. Trainer is in pretty good form and the horse/jockey get on well. Good e/w bet in my eyes.
Best price - 22-1 with Sporting Bet.
14.30 York
5 runners here and 4 have very good chances. My selection is Ebn Arab as this horse was extremely impressive over C&D on his debut, and he really couldn't have won any better. The 2nd and 5th in that race, although probably no world beaters, have both come out and won since to frank the form.
Best price - 11-4 with Ladbrokes.
15.05 York
My best bet of the day goes in this race. Main Sequence was incredibly unlucky in his last outing over in France where he had to check back a couple of times... before that the only horse to ever beat him was Camelot, in the Derby. He has a great chance of getting back on track today and is my NAP.
Best price - 2-1 with Victor Chandler
15.40 York
I am well and truly in the Frankel camp and will be watching him win again today. If you fancy a bet in this race though, I've gone for Sri Putra e/w in the market without Frankel.
Best price - 16-1 with Paddy Power (e/w without Frankel)
16.15 York
My selection for this 2 miler, and NB for the meeting, is Cape Express. I feel the trip was a little too long last time out, even though he still ran creditably... The 5lbs off from Darren Egan too is excellent.
Best price - 9-1 with various bookmakers.
16.50 York
I think that Hajras still has a lot more to offer in this sphere. 6lbs might not be enough of a rise to stop him.
Best price - 8-1 with Victor Chandler.
Best of luck to all today.
Monday, 16 July 2012
Goodbye
Good Morning/Afternoon/Evening.
After receiving over 2000 followers and having 23753 views on my blog, it is with great regret that The Rascal will be closed off of twitter shortly.
I just simply haven't got the time any more to study form, tweet, blog and ultimately tip.
Please feel free to follow my personal account @matthewdudney .I'll always be up for horse racing piffle and general banter.
Best of luck with all your gambling.
The Rascal.
After receiving over 2000 followers and having 23753 views on my blog, it is with great regret that The Rascal will be closed off of twitter shortly.
I just simply haven't got the time any more to study form, tweet, blog and ultimately tip.
Please feel free to follow my personal account @matthewdudney .I'll always be up for horse racing piffle and general banter.
Best of luck with all your gambling.
The Rascal.
Saturday, 5 May 2012
2000 Guineas Day
Good morning all. I hope you're all as excited as I am for what looks a very open 2000 Guineas. Some may argue with me there seeing that Camelot is a short favourite, but he is too short for me.
14.30 Newmarket - Jockey Club Stakes
I'll start here with my NAP of the day. Meandre will be very much at home on this ground and receiving weight from Dunadin means that he will be very tough to beat. Andre Fabre also has a pretty decent record in this race.
NAP
9-4 Best price.
15.10 Newmarket - 2000 Guineas
At these prices I find it hard to go against Power. He was the leading 2 year old, will improve for extra furlong and will handle conditions perfectly.
N.B
11-1 Best price.
15.45 Newmarket - Pearl Bloodstock
I am surprised that Eton Rifles has never run over 5 furlongs before as he looks all speed to me. He will also relish these conditions. Temple Meads could be the danger if back to best from break.
N.N.B
10-1 Best price.
Others I like;
14.00 Newmarket - Danadana (17-2 e/w)
17.30 Newmarket - Campanology (14-1 e/w)
15.30 Goodwood - Very Good Day (12-1 e/w)
Best of luck to all.
14.30 Newmarket - Jockey Club Stakes
I'll start here with my NAP of the day. Meandre will be very much at home on this ground and receiving weight from Dunadin means that he will be very tough to beat. Andre Fabre also has a pretty decent record in this race.
NAP
9-4 Best price.
15.10 Newmarket - 2000 Guineas
At these prices I find it hard to go against Power. He was the leading 2 year old, will improve for extra furlong and will handle conditions perfectly.
N.B
11-1 Best price.
15.45 Newmarket - Pearl Bloodstock
I am surprised that Eton Rifles has never run over 5 furlongs before as he looks all speed to me. He will also relish these conditions. Temple Meads could be the danger if back to best from break.
N.N.B
10-1 Best price.
Others I like;
14.00 Newmarket - Danadana (17-2 e/w)
17.30 Newmarket - Campanology (14-1 e/w)
15.30 Goodwood - Very Good Day (12-1 e/w)
Best of luck to all.
Friday, 27 April 2012
Punchestown Friday 27th April
Good morning all. Its been a while since I have blogged for horse racing in the week, but as there are some nice races at the festival today, and as its a Friday, I thought I would share my views.
16.55 - Ryanair Novice Chase
All eyes will be on Menorah today as he is clearly the classiest horse in this race, following on from his impressive win at Aintree. However, there is no way I could back him as his jumping issues will still be there and I am not convinced the drop back to 2 miles is a good sign. I do believe he will be fine with the ground though. The one for me is Blackstairmountain. He will relish this ground and the way the Mullins horses are running this week its mad to ignore the 8-1 available.
8-1 Best price.
2nd - unlucky.
17.30 - Rabobank Champion Hurdle
Hurricane Fly can give Mullins/Ruby a quick double.
2-5 Best price. No bet for me though.
Easy winner. Paddypower offered up evens for a short while. Thanks Paddy.
18.05 - Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle
Its hard to not be interested in another of Mullins' horse in Felix Yonger, but at 2-1 I do not see any value. Dedigout has never been out of the first 3 and I am willing to take 6-1 on this horse as I can see him taking up the running, or being up with a likely slow pace.
6-1 best price.
WINNER!
18.40 - Star Best For Racing Coverage Novice Hurdle
I feel that Malt Master can improve on this softer ground. Again, Willie Mullins has another very interesting horse, but he cannot win them all... Malt Master at these prices for me.
13-2 Best price.
2nd
19.10 Bumper
Small e/w bet on Scotias Glen who will need his stamina for this race.
14-1 Best price.
Unplaced
Best of luck to all who follow.
16.55 - Ryanair Novice Chase
All eyes will be on Menorah today as he is clearly the classiest horse in this race, following on from his impressive win at Aintree. However, there is no way I could back him as his jumping issues will still be there and I am not convinced the drop back to 2 miles is a good sign. I do believe he will be fine with the ground though. The one for me is Blackstairmountain. He will relish this ground and the way the Mullins horses are running this week its mad to ignore the 8-1 available.
8-1 Best price.
2nd - unlucky.
17.30 - Rabobank Champion Hurdle
Hurricane Fly can give Mullins/Ruby a quick double.
2-5 Best price. No bet for me though.
Easy winner. Paddypower offered up evens for a short while. Thanks Paddy.
18.05 - Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle
Its hard to not be interested in another of Mullins' horse in Felix Yonger, but at 2-1 I do not see any value. Dedigout has never been out of the first 3 and I am willing to take 6-1 on this horse as I can see him taking up the running, or being up with a likely slow pace.
6-1 best price.
WINNER!
18.40 - Star Best For Racing Coverage Novice Hurdle
I feel that Malt Master can improve on this softer ground. Again, Willie Mullins has another very interesting horse, but he cannot win them all... Malt Master at these prices for me.
13-2 Best price.
2nd
19.10 Bumper
Small e/w bet on Scotias Glen who will need his stamina for this race.
14-1 Best price.
Unplaced
Best of luck to all who follow.
Saturday, 21 April 2012
Scottish National Day
Hello, and welcome to the Scottish Grand National blog. I have 2 selections for the main race, both at big prices, and a few selections here and there as well.
Scottish National
I have selected 2 for this race as 1 can be a bit of a monkey when jumping but if he puts in a decent round then he will surely be there at the end. That horse in question is Mostly Bob. If this horse under performs in the jumping stakes then my back up is Auroras Encore who hits all the trends and came back to form in his last race.
Best prices;
Mostly Bob - 22-1
Auroras Encore - 25-1
14.50 Ayr
This race completely revolves around Edgardo Sol who's 2nd at the festival reads very well. I think he will be good enough to win this, albeit a short(ish) price.
5-2 Best price.
14.00 Newbury
One of my favourite horse is Harris Tweed and he is back out today, he always runs a really good race and with the ground likely to be soft, he's the winner in this race in my opinion.
7-4 Best price.
14.35 Newbury
Clearly Best Terms has the form to win this race quite easily but question marks are over the trip, and Richard Hannon is in strange form (in my opinion) so I believe the winner will come from somewhere else. I was taken aback by Moonstone Magic's debut run. I understand that he didn't beat much in that race but he quickened clear impressively on soft ground.
5-1 Best price.
15.10 Newbury
This is an extremely poor renewal of this race with only 5 runners and an odds on shot leading the way. Its clear that last years Dewhurst was a good race, with the 5th and the 9th winning this week. We have the 4th Bronterre running here at odds on and also Spiritual Star who came 7th in the Dewhurst. I can see these as the first 2 in this race and I have to back Spiritual Star at the prices.
9-1 Best price
Best of luck all!
Scottish National
I have selected 2 for this race as 1 can be a bit of a monkey when jumping but if he puts in a decent round then he will surely be there at the end. That horse in question is Mostly Bob. If this horse under performs in the jumping stakes then my back up is Auroras Encore who hits all the trends and came back to form in his last race.
Best prices;
Mostly Bob - 22-1
Auroras Encore - 25-1
14.50 Ayr
This race completely revolves around Edgardo Sol who's 2nd at the festival reads very well. I think he will be good enough to win this, albeit a short(ish) price.
5-2 Best price.
14.00 Newbury
One of my favourite horse is Harris Tweed and he is back out today, he always runs a really good race and with the ground likely to be soft, he's the winner in this race in my opinion.
7-4 Best price.
14.35 Newbury
Clearly Best Terms has the form to win this race quite easily but question marks are over the trip, and Richard Hannon is in strange form (in my opinion) so I believe the winner will come from somewhere else. I was taken aback by Moonstone Magic's debut run. I understand that he didn't beat much in that race but he quickened clear impressively on soft ground.
5-1 Best price.
15.10 Newbury
This is an extremely poor renewal of this race with only 5 runners and an odds on shot leading the way. Its clear that last years Dewhurst was a good race, with the 5th and the 9th winning this week. We have the 4th Bronterre running here at odds on and also Spiritual Star who came 7th in the Dewhurst. I can see these as the first 2 in this race and I have to back Spiritual Star at the prices.
9-1 Best price
Best of luck all!
Saturday, 14 April 2012
Grand National Day
Good morning all, and welcome to the Grand National Day blog.
I am hoping for the same success as last year when I tipped up 1st, 2nd and 4th (sadly this was before my time on twitter, but I received many thanks from friends, families and colleagues!). Lightening doesn't tend to strike twice, but I have 3 for today's race again.
Grand National
My 3 for this race are as follows; Killyglen 18-1, The Midnight Club 40-1 and Rare Bob (was 50-1, now 40-1).
I'll start with Killyglen. This horse was running an absolute stormer last year when falling 3 or 4 out and has had a very successful wind op since. What is surprising with Killyglen is that he's actually running off 5 lbs lower this year. He has a jockey that has won in this race too which is always a bonus, and providing he stays on his feet he'll have an outstanding chance.
My next selection The Midnight Club is definitely in much worse form than last year, but I feel he is the forgotten horse. He actually went off as favourite in this race last year and ran pretty well in finishing in 6th, so he clearly has no fear of these fences. The ground is likely to be a tad softer than last year which will help and I think he is a MASSIVE price at 40-1.
And lastly, my 3rd selection is Rare Bob. 50-1 yesterday and this morning before pricewise selected him, and since I started writing this he is now into 33-1. He has experience over these fences, granted not in this race, but he has never fallen. I feel this slog of 4 miles and 4 furlongs will see him come into his own and he hits pretty much all of the trends.
My other selections today are as follows;
13.45 Aintree
You may think I am insane to go against Simonsig, but I honestly do not see him as a 1-2 chance. Colour Squadron is better than his Supreme form and this extra distance will definitely help.
12-1 Best price.
14.50 Aintree
I think that Oscar Whisky is an outstanding bet today, and will have to be my NAP. This is by far his best distance and he ticks all the boxes for me. I do not feel Rock On Ruby will stay so Zarkandar is the main danger.
5-2 Best price.
14.30 Lingfield
A good little handicap here and I feel its best to side with Buthelezi who is down in grade, down in weight and has been gelded.
7-1 Best price.
Best of luck all!
I am hoping for the same success as last year when I tipped up 1st, 2nd and 4th (sadly this was before my time on twitter, but I received many thanks from friends, families and colleagues!). Lightening doesn't tend to strike twice, but I have 3 for today's race again.
Grand National
My 3 for this race are as follows; Killyglen 18-1, The Midnight Club 40-1 and Rare Bob (was 50-1, now 40-1).
I'll start with Killyglen. This horse was running an absolute stormer last year when falling 3 or 4 out and has had a very successful wind op since. What is surprising with Killyglen is that he's actually running off 5 lbs lower this year. He has a jockey that has won in this race too which is always a bonus, and providing he stays on his feet he'll have an outstanding chance.
My next selection The Midnight Club is definitely in much worse form than last year, but I feel he is the forgotten horse. He actually went off as favourite in this race last year and ran pretty well in finishing in 6th, so he clearly has no fear of these fences. The ground is likely to be a tad softer than last year which will help and I think he is a MASSIVE price at 40-1.
And lastly, my 3rd selection is Rare Bob. 50-1 yesterday and this morning before pricewise selected him, and since I started writing this he is now into 33-1. He has experience over these fences, granted not in this race, but he has never fallen. I feel this slog of 4 miles and 4 furlongs will see him come into his own and he hits pretty much all of the trends.
My other selections today are as follows;
13.45 Aintree
You may think I am insane to go against Simonsig, but I honestly do not see him as a 1-2 chance. Colour Squadron is better than his Supreme form and this extra distance will definitely help.
12-1 Best price.
14.50 Aintree
I think that Oscar Whisky is an outstanding bet today, and will have to be my NAP. This is by far his best distance and he ticks all the boxes for me. I do not feel Rock On Ruby will stay so Zarkandar is the main danger.
5-2 Best price.
14.30 Lingfield
A good little handicap here and I feel its best to side with Buthelezi who is down in grade, down in weight and has been gelded.
7-1 Best price.
Best of luck all!
Friday, 13 April 2012
Aintree Day 2 Friday
Good morning all. Its been a while since I have had the time to write up a blog. Work has been really busy and I still have no internet access at my new home yet.
Day 1 at Aintree was profitable with 2 winners from 4 selections, so lets hope for the same again today.
14.00
All eyes will be on Darlan today, and rightly so as he is clearly the form pick. Prospect Wells should improve from his Supreme 5th as Paul Nichols' string are in much better form. But at the prices, I like Vulcanite. This would top off an excellent season for Charlie Longsdon his 5 year old gelding is improving. He should settle better today with more experience and I expect him to be bang there at the end.
8-1 best price.
14.30
Everyone will be looking at the 2 at the head of the market... However much I like Champion Court, I don't think he will see out this trip. I have never been a fan of Silviniaco Conti so that leaves me with Join Together. This horse was clearly not right at Cheltenham and I know he's a better horse than that.
5-1 best price.
15.05
Obviously Finians Rainbow will be hard to beat, but this is a tough race to follow up from Cheltenham and I am keen on getting him beat. Wishful Thinking loves the spring and loves it here is you look at last years novice race. I also believe this to be his best distance so at the prices I am very happy to back this one each way.
10-1 best price.
15.40
Such a tough race to predict, so will just have a small each way bet on Always Waining who loves it round here in this race.
12-1 best price.
16.15
Fingal Bay is all class and I expect him to win this.
6-4 best price.
That's all for me now. best of luck all.
Day 1 at Aintree was profitable with 2 winners from 4 selections, so lets hope for the same again today.
14.00
All eyes will be on Darlan today, and rightly so as he is clearly the form pick. Prospect Wells should improve from his Supreme 5th as Paul Nichols' string are in much better form. But at the prices, I like Vulcanite. This would top off an excellent season for Charlie Longsdon his 5 year old gelding is improving. He should settle better today with more experience and I expect him to be bang there at the end.
8-1 best price.
14.30
Everyone will be looking at the 2 at the head of the market... However much I like Champion Court, I don't think he will see out this trip. I have never been a fan of Silviniaco Conti so that leaves me with Join Together. This horse was clearly not right at Cheltenham and I know he's a better horse than that.
5-1 best price.
15.05
Obviously Finians Rainbow will be hard to beat, but this is a tough race to follow up from Cheltenham and I am keen on getting him beat. Wishful Thinking loves the spring and loves it here is you look at last years novice race. I also believe this to be his best distance so at the prices I am very happy to back this one each way.
10-1 best price.
15.40
Such a tough race to predict, so will just have a small each way bet on Always Waining who loves it round here in this race.
12-1 best price.
16.15
Fingal Bay is all class and I expect him to win this.
6-4 best price.
That's all for me now. best of luck all.
Saturday, 24 March 2012
RACING - Saturday 24th March
Morning all, I haven't the time to go through reasons today, but the below are who I have backed.
Best of luck all!
Lingfield
14.25 - Crown Dependency (small e/w)
15.25 - Cai Shen e/w
Newbury
14.40 - Kentford Grey Lady, win
15.40 - Mon Parrain, win
Footy bet
Norwich, Reading, Southampton and Tranmere
Best of luck all!
Lingfield
14.25 - Crown Dependency (small e/w)
15.25 - Cai Shen e/w
Newbury
14.40 - Kentford Grey Lady, win
15.40 - Mon Parrain, win
Footy bet
Norwich, Reading, Southampton and Tranmere
Saturday, 17 March 2012
RACING Saturday 17th March
Anybody else feel the come down from that fantastic festival?? Lets see if we can find some winners today. However, there are only 2 horse racing selections and a footy treble.
14.25 - Ffos Las
Strongly Suggested is on a very nice handicap mark for this race after some creditable runs in novice hurdles.
NAP
11-4 Best price.
15.20 - Uttoxeter
Honourable Arthur is my selection for this tough National. He is an improving chaser who looks in need of this demanding trip. He's off a low weight and I can see him there at the end.
N.B
20-1 Best price.
FOOTY TREBLE
I have gone for Fulham, WBA and Reading in my footy treble this week. It pays roughly 8-1.
Best of luck all!
14.25 - Ffos Las
Strongly Suggested is on a very nice handicap mark for this race after some creditable runs in novice hurdles.
NAP
11-4 Best price.
15.20 - Uttoxeter
Honourable Arthur is my selection for this tough National. He is an improving chaser who looks in need of this demanding trip. He's off a low weight and I can see him there at the end.
N.B
20-1 Best price.
FOOTY TREBLE
I have gone for Fulham, WBA and Reading in my footy treble this week. It pays roughly 8-1.
Best of luck all!
Thursday, 15 March 2012
Cheltenham Day 4
Last day today, and still looking for that 'real' winner. Will it be today? After this week, i'm not so confident... but here goes!
JCB Triumph Hurdle
Key Trends
• 15 of the
last 17 winners won last time out.
• 15 of the
last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.
• 12 of the
last 17 winners (including all of the last 6) started in the first 4 in the
betting.
• The last
5 winners were officially rated 138+ beforehand (last season just 5 of the 17
runners were, four of whom filled the first 4 places).
Summary
Personally, I feel this revolves around the Alan King yard. I have always been a fan of Grumeti, and maybe I should stick to him, but my instincts have not been good this week and I am now going against. Pearl Swan and Baby Mix are also huge dangers. Good race.
Personally, I feel this revolves around the Alan King yard. I have always been a fan of Grumeti, and maybe I should stick to him, but my instincts have not been good this week and I am now going against. Pearl Swan and Baby Mix are also huge dangers. Good race.
Selection(s)
BALDER SUCCES - Been through the form of this horse and its been very impressive, hard to see it out of the top 3. (However, I have said that a few times this week and been wrong!) 8-1 e/w
BALDER SUCCES - Been through the form of this horse and its been very impressive, hard to see it out of the top 3. (However, I have said that a few times this week and been wrong!) 8-1 e/w
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle
Key Trends
• The last
6 winners were officially rated between 128-135, including the first 4 home
last year (only one horse in the top 12 in the weights could finish in the
first nine).
• 32 of the
last 36 renewals were won by a horse starting at no bigger than 16/1.
• 39 of
last 48 winners were aged 5 of 6 (5 year olds have won seven of the last twelve
renewals, from approximately 20% of the total runners in that period).
• Just 4
winners since 1959 were aged older than 7.
• No winner
has carried more than 11st 8Ib for 50 years (only 1 horse has carried more into
a place since 1979).
Summary
Another tough handicap for the week. Another stat that is not mentioned above is the Irish form of the race, which is very good.
Another tough handicap for the week. Another stat that is not mentioned above is the Irish form of the race, which is very good.
Selection(s)
CITIZENSHIP - This won really impressively last time out and looks set to run a cracker again today. 8-1 e/w.
CITIZENSHIP - This won really impressively last time out and looks set to run a cracker again today. 8-1 e/w.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Key Trends
• All 6
winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles.
• 5 of the
6 winners had previously contested a race over 3 miles.
• 5 of the
6 winners had run at Cheltenham before.
• 5 of the
6 winners had won or finished second last time out.
• 16 of the
18 win-and-placed horses finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
Summary
The clear favourite Boston Bob is a worthy favourite on form... but who am I to go against a horse that has one for me 3 times over hurdles?
The clear favourite Boston Bob is a worthy favourite on form... but who am I to go against a horse that has one for me 3 times over hurdles?
Selection(s)
BRINDISI BREEZE - You can only be impressed by the way this horse has performed since coming over from pointing. The hill will not faze him as he will stay all day on good ground. 11-1 e/w
BRINDISI BREEZE - You can only be impressed by the way this horse has performed since coming over from pointing. The hill will not faze him as he will stay all day on good ground. 11-1 e/w
Cheltenham Gold
Cup
Key Trends
• The last
10 winners started in the first 3 in the betting, although there have been 10
horses priced 33/1 and bigger placed since 1997.
• No winner
older than 10 since 1969.
• Only one
winner (Cool Dawn) aged 10 in the last 17 renewals and just four ten-year-olds
have placed since then from 35 to try, including very many fancied horses.
• 16 of the
last 17 winners (and all of the last 11) aged between 7 and 9, during which
period 54 horses aged 10+ have run, which included ten horses at 10/1 or less
and four outright favourites. (Only three six-year-old's have competed in the
race in the last 40 years).
• 9 of the
last 10 winners were officially rated 166+.
• 9 of the
last 10 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before.
• 18 of the
last 18 winners have run on or after Boxing Day that season.
• 0 out of
the last 18 winners entered the race off the back of just one race earlier in
the season).
• 11 of the
last 13 winners were placed at the Festival before.
• 11 of the
last 12 winners had won a race that season.
• 21 of the
last 23 winners finished in the first 4 in their previous race.
• 9 of the
last 19 winners were second-season chasers.
• Horses
beaten in the Gold Cup before are 2-67 since 1994. Only See More Business
(having won in 1999...and he was "carried out" by a horse pulling up
injured in 1998 rather than being beaten on merit) and Kauto Star (second in
2008 and winner 12 months later - but had also won in 2007) have bucked this
trend.
Summary
Only 3 horses in this field can win today (in my opinion). Kauto Star obviously is one of them, but he is now too old, even though I would be ecstatic if he won. Burton Port has excellent form at Cheltenham but I feel he will bounce after an excellent come back. That leaves 1 horse.
Only 3 horses in this field can win today (in my opinion). Kauto Star obviously is one of them, but he is now too old, even though I would be ecstatic if he won. Burton Port has excellent form at Cheltenham but I feel he will bounce after an excellent come back. That leaves 1 horse.
Selection(s)
LONG RUN - This horse will be 100% spot on for tomorrow and I can only see a Long Run win. Confident. 2-1 WIN
LONG RUN - This horse will be 100% spot on for tomorrow and I can only see a Long Run win. Confident. 2-1 WIN
Foxhunter Chase
Key Trends
• 18 of the
last 20 winners were aged ten or younger.
• 20 of the
last 25 winners won last time out.
• 6 of the
last 10 winners have started at 14/1+ (although not the last 2).
Summary
This is actually a really good renewal of this race, 3 of these horses being at the top of their game in Group races just 2-3 years ago. Barbers Shop, Cloudy Lane and Chapoturgeon... I like one of them a lot.
This is actually a really good renewal of this race, 3 of these horses being at the top of their game in Group races just 2-3 years ago. Barbers Shop, Cloudy Lane and Chapoturgeon... I like one of them a lot.
Selection(s)
CHAPOTURGEON - This horse has won at the festival before, so definitely likes this time of year and course... He does have to win over the furthest he has ever raced at, but he was so impressive last time out that he looks like it will be no problem at all. 13-2 e/w
CHAPOTURGEON - This horse has won at the festival before, so definitely likes this time of year and course... He does have to win over the furthest he has ever raced at, but he was so impressive last time out that he looks like it will be no problem at all. 13-2 e/w
Martin Pipe Conditionals
Hurdle
Key Trends
• Since
1993 just under 50% (27-55) of Handicap Hurdle winners also won last time out,
from just less than 20% overall representation.
Summary
Blimey, not much to go on here for this race. Nicky Henderson has a good strike rate in it though.
Blimey, not much to go on here for this race. Nicky Henderson has a good strike rate in it though.
Selection(s)
OSCAR NOMINEE - This horse has a good e/w chance with the extra distance expected to help. 12-1 e/w
OSCAR NOMINEE - This horse has a good e/w chance with the extra distance expected to help. 12-1 e/w
John Henderson Grand Annual
Chase
Key Trends
• 9 of the
last 10 winners were officially rated between 129-134 (and accounted for the
1-2 in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008).
• 6 of the
last 9 winners were previous course winners.
• 42 of the
last 48 win-and-placed runners were aged under 10.
• 30 of the
last 35 renewals were won by horses that started at no bigger then 10/1.
Summary
I personally think this is a close your eyes and point job. Apologies that I cannot give a selection from form/trends etc, as they point to a lot. So I will go with a horse that's a little bit of a favourite of mine and I do think he has the class to win here.
I personally think this is a close your eyes and point job. Apologies that I cannot give a selection from form/trends etc, as they point to a lot. So I will go with a horse that's a little bit of a favourite of mine and I do think he has the class to win here.
Selection(s)
KID CASSIDY - This horse was very lucky a year a go to survive an electric shock in the paddock at Newbury when 2 horses tragically died. What a story this would be if this horse could win at Cheltenham a year later. Also AP McCoy has not ridden a winner this year, and cannot see any before this race. 10-1 e/w.
Good luck all! Lets hope for a great last days racing and that all horses come home safe.
KID CASSIDY - This horse was very lucky a year a go to survive an electric shock in the paddock at Newbury when 2 horses tragically died. What a story this would be if this horse could win at Cheltenham a year later. Also AP McCoy has not ridden a winner this year, and cannot see any before this race. 10-1 e/w.
Good luck all! Lets hope for a great last days racing and that all horses come home safe.
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