JCB Triumph Hurdle
Key Trends
• 15 of the
last 17 winners won last time out.
• 15 of the
last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.
• 12 of the
last 17 winners (including all of the last 6) started in the first 4 in the
betting.
• The last
5 winners were officially rated 138+ beforehand (last season just 5 of the 17
runners were, four of whom filled the first 4 places).
Summary
Personally, I feel this revolves around the Alan King yard. I have always been a fan of Grumeti, and maybe I should stick to him, but my instincts have not been good this week and I am now going against. Pearl Swan and Baby Mix are also huge dangers. Good race.
Personally, I feel this revolves around the Alan King yard. I have always been a fan of Grumeti, and maybe I should stick to him, but my instincts have not been good this week and I am now going against. Pearl Swan and Baby Mix are also huge dangers. Good race.
Selection(s)
BALDER SUCCES - Been through the form of this horse and its been very impressive, hard to see it out of the top 3. (However, I have said that a few times this week and been wrong!) 8-1 e/w
BALDER SUCCES - Been through the form of this horse and its been very impressive, hard to see it out of the top 3. (However, I have said that a few times this week and been wrong!) 8-1 e/w
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle
Key Trends
• The last
6 winners were officially rated between 128-135, including the first 4 home
last year (only one horse in the top 12 in the weights could finish in the
first nine).
• 32 of the
last 36 renewals were won by a horse starting at no bigger than 16/1.
• 39 of
last 48 winners were aged 5 of 6 (5 year olds have won seven of the last twelve
renewals, from approximately 20% of the total runners in that period).
• Just 4
winners since 1959 were aged older than 7.
• No winner
has carried more than 11st 8Ib for 50 years (only 1 horse has carried more into
a place since 1979).
Summary
Another tough handicap for the week. Another stat that is not mentioned above is the Irish form of the race, which is very good.
Another tough handicap for the week. Another stat that is not mentioned above is the Irish form of the race, which is very good.
Selection(s)
CITIZENSHIP - This won really impressively last time out and looks set to run a cracker again today. 8-1 e/w.
CITIZENSHIP - This won really impressively last time out and looks set to run a cracker again today. 8-1 e/w.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Key Trends
• All 6
winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles.
• 5 of the
6 winners had previously contested a race over 3 miles.
• 5 of the
6 winners had run at Cheltenham before.
• 5 of the
6 winners had won or finished second last time out.
• 16 of the
18 win-and-placed horses finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
Summary
The clear favourite Boston Bob is a worthy favourite on form... but who am I to go against a horse that has one for me 3 times over hurdles?
The clear favourite Boston Bob is a worthy favourite on form... but who am I to go against a horse that has one for me 3 times over hurdles?
Selection(s)
BRINDISI BREEZE - You can only be impressed by the way this horse has performed since coming over from pointing. The hill will not faze him as he will stay all day on good ground. 11-1 e/w
BRINDISI BREEZE - You can only be impressed by the way this horse has performed since coming over from pointing. The hill will not faze him as he will stay all day on good ground. 11-1 e/w
Cheltenham Gold
Cup
Key Trends
• The last
10 winners started in the first 3 in the betting, although there have been 10
horses priced 33/1 and bigger placed since 1997.
• No winner
older than 10 since 1969.
• Only one
winner (Cool Dawn) aged 10 in the last 17 renewals and just four ten-year-olds
have placed since then from 35 to try, including very many fancied horses.
• 16 of the
last 17 winners (and all of the last 11) aged between 7 and 9, during which
period 54 horses aged 10+ have run, which included ten horses at 10/1 or less
and four outright favourites. (Only three six-year-old's have competed in the
race in the last 40 years).
• 9 of the
last 10 winners were officially rated 166+.
• 9 of the
last 10 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before.
• 18 of the
last 18 winners have run on or after Boxing Day that season.
• 0 out of
the last 18 winners entered the race off the back of just one race earlier in
the season).
• 11 of the
last 13 winners were placed at the Festival before.
• 11 of the
last 12 winners had won a race that season.
• 21 of the
last 23 winners finished in the first 4 in their previous race.
• 9 of the
last 19 winners were second-season chasers.
• Horses
beaten in the Gold Cup before are 2-67 since 1994. Only See More Business
(having won in 1999...and he was "carried out" by a horse pulling up
injured in 1998 rather than being beaten on merit) and Kauto Star (second in
2008 and winner 12 months later - but had also won in 2007) have bucked this
trend.
Summary
Only 3 horses in this field can win today (in my opinion). Kauto Star obviously is one of them, but he is now too old, even though I would be ecstatic if he won. Burton Port has excellent form at Cheltenham but I feel he will bounce after an excellent come back. That leaves 1 horse.
Only 3 horses in this field can win today (in my opinion). Kauto Star obviously is one of them, but he is now too old, even though I would be ecstatic if he won. Burton Port has excellent form at Cheltenham but I feel he will bounce after an excellent come back. That leaves 1 horse.
Selection(s)
LONG RUN - This horse will be 100% spot on for tomorrow and I can only see a Long Run win. Confident. 2-1 WIN
LONG RUN - This horse will be 100% spot on for tomorrow and I can only see a Long Run win. Confident. 2-1 WIN
Foxhunter Chase
Key Trends
• 18 of the
last 20 winners were aged ten or younger.
• 20 of the
last 25 winners won last time out.
• 6 of the
last 10 winners have started at 14/1+ (although not the last 2).
Summary
This is actually a really good renewal of this race, 3 of these horses being at the top of their game in Group races just 2-3 years ago. Barbers Shop, Cloudy Lane and Chapoturgeon... I like one of them a lot.
This is actually a really good renewal of this race, 3 of these horses being at the top of their game in Group races just 2-3 years ago. Barbers Shop, Cloudy Lane and Chapoturgeon... I like one of them a lot.
Selection(s)
CHAPOTURGEON - This horse has won at the festival before, so definitely likes this time of year and course... He does have to win over the furthest he has ever raced at, but he was so impressive last time out that he looks like it will be no problem at all. 13-2 e/w
CHAPOTURGEON - This horse has won at the festival before, so definitely likes this time of year and course... He does have to win over the furthest he has ever raced at, but he was so impressive last time out that he looks like it will be no problem at all. 13-2 e/w
Martin Pipe Conditionals
Hurdle
Key Trends
• Since
1993 just under 50% (27-55) of Handicap Hurdle winners also won last time out,
from just less than 20% overall representation.
Summary
Blimey, not much to go on here for this race. Nicky Henderson has a good strike rate in it though.
Blimey, not much to go on here for this race. Nicky Henderson has a good strike rate in it though.
Selection(s)
OSCAR NOMINEE - This horse has a good e/w chance with the extra distance expected to help. 12-1 e/w
OSCAR NOMINEE - This horse has a good e/w chance with the extra distance expected to help. 12-1 e/w
John Henderson Grand Annual
Chase
Key Trends
• 9 of the
last 10 winners were officially rated between 129-134 (and accounted for the
1-2 in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008).
• 6 of the
last 9 winners were previous course winners.
• 42 of the
last 48 win-and-placed runners were aged under 10.
• 30 of the
last 35 renewals were won by horses that started at no bigger then 10/1.
Summary
I personally think this is a close your eyes and point job. Apologies that I cannot give a selection from form/trends etc, as they point to a lot. So I will go with a horse that's a little bit of a favourite of mine and I do think he has the class to win here.
I personally think this is a close your eyes and point job. Apologies that I cannot give a selection from form/trends etc, as they point to a lot. So I will go with a horse that's a little bit of a favourite of mine and I do think he has the class to win here.
Selection(s)
KID CASSIDY - This horse was very lucky a year a go to survive an electric shock in the paddock at Newbury when 2 horses tragically died. What a story this would be if this horse could win at Cheltenham a year later. Also AP McCoy has not ridden a winner this year, and cannot see any before this race. 10-1 e/w.
Good luck all! Lets hope for a great last days racing and that all horses come home safe.
KID CASSIDY - This horse was very lucky a year a go to survive an electric shock in the paddock at Newbury when 2 horses tragically died. What a story this would be if this horse could win at Cheltenham a year later. Also AP McCoy has not ridden a winner this year, and cannot see any before this race. 10-1 e/w.
Good luck all! Lets hope for a great last days racing and that all horses come home safe.
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