Cheltenham Day 3

Jewson Novices Chase

Key Trends

•             No stats to go on

Summary

Selection(s)
FOR NON STOP - Hopefully this horse will make amends for his last visit to Cheltenham. Vastly improving, never been out of the first 2 (when finishing) in chases and the fast pace will surely suit. Looks a good e/w bet. 6-1 e/w

Pertemps Final

Key Trends

•             Only 1 winning 5 year-old in 36 runnings of the race.

•             The last 5 winners were aged 7 or older.

•             9 of the last 15 winners won last time out.

•             Just 1 winning favourite in the last 16 runnings.

•             The last 7 winners were sent off at double figure odds

Summary
You could probably select a few in this race, so trying to whittle it down to one is pretty difficult. 

Selection(s)
SONOFVIC - This horse is very interesting back over hurdles where he is unbeaten. He tried his hand at chases but wasn't a natural jumper. Its a horse who I have liked since its debut and I will have a small e/w bet in a race where favourites tend to be beaten. 11-1 e/w.

Ryanair Chase

Key Trends

•             11 of the 12 winners and runner's-up had won at Cheltenham before (including all 6 winners). Last season produced a lower-than-average representation of previous course winners (5 from 13) but they were still responsible for the supplying the 1-2.

•             The last 3 winners contested that season's King George VI Chase.

•             5 of the 6 winners started at less than 6/1.

•             Irish trained horses are 0-16.

Summary
Tough little race here. I have dismissed the Irish trained horses as they have never won this race. I will also dismiss the fave as his form at Cheltenham last time was not good enough. 1 thing I do know is, I will be sick as a parrot if Captain Chris wins, so will see how he reacts in the paddock and going down.

Selection(s)
SOMERSBY - Now that Somersby has got his head in front in a Group 1, I feel that he can go on for his 2nd here. He beat Finians Rainbow last time (some may question FR's ride) but that is still top quality form, and I cannot see him out of the first 3. 13-2 e/w

World Hurdle

Key Trends

•             No 5 year-old has ever won, although plenty have been placed.

•             15 of the 17 winners also ran at the previous seasons Cheltenham Festival.

•             Only one winner older than 9 (Crimson Embers in 1986).

•             No Irish trained winner since 1995.

•             French-breds have won 5 of the last 9 runnings.

•             The last 23 winners finished in the first 4 last time out and 14 of the 16 winners finished in the first 2 last time out.

•             No shock results of late. 8/1 the highest SP in last ten years.

•             6 of the last 7 runnings have seen the 1-2-3 filled by horses in the first five in the betting.

Summary
I have this out of the first 2 in the betting. It would be madness to go against Big Bucks but Nicky Hendersons form at this festival is so good.

Selection(s)       
BIG BUCKS - Seriously, who would go against this horse? No single bet from me, so might see if there are any distance bets for BB to win.
UPDATE - I have backed DYNASTE e/w in the market without Big Bucks at 7-1 with Paddy Power.

Byrne Group Plate

Key Trends

•             21 of the last 23 winners were officially rated no higher than 141 (last year the 1-2-3 emerged from the bottom 7 in the handicap from 24 runners).

•             14 of the last 16 winners carried no more than 11 stone (including the first three horses home in each of the last two years).

•             French-bred horses have won 6 of the last 11 renewals (and been runner-up in 4 of the other 5). In 2009 they accounted for the 1-2-3.

•             Only 1 winning favourite since 1981 (9 of the last favourites finished unplaced and the last 10 winners started at double-figure odds).

•             Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951.

•             Venetia Williams has trained 2 of the last 4 winners (including the first and second in 2009).

•             17 of the last 19 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival before.

•             17 of the last 19 winners finished in the first 4 last time out.

Summary
Only having a small bet in this race as its a minefield.

Selection(s)
FINE PARCHMENT - This horse is a c&d winner, which is always handy at Cheltenham. Big price, small bet. 33-1 e/w

Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Key Trends

•             Only 4 of the last 31 winners were aged 7 or younger (yet the last 3 beaten favourites were aged 6 and 7!)

•             8 and 9 year-olds have won 13 of the last 17 renewals (the last 3 winners have been 9 year-olds).

•             No Irish trained winner for 28 years.

•             Last time out form not necessarily important - 6 of the last 8 winners were unplaced in their last run.

•             The top weight has won the last 2 runnings

Summary
Probably my biggest ever winner on this race last year with Junior as I had him antipost from some info I received. David Pipe likes to win this race so will go for another of his.

Selection(s)
SONA SASTA - Another big price here so another small e/w bet. First time blinkers and the drop in trip will help this horse. 22-1 e/w