Cheltenham Day 1

Good day to all, and welcome to the greatest 4 days racing in the UK. We start off with an excellent day so let’s hope we find some winners. I have included some key trends for the races below. I believe these are an excellent guide for the handicaps and novice races... they can and do get broken from time to time, but the majority of the time they are spot on.
Apologies if prices are no longer available. This was as of Sunday 11th March.

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Key Trends

•             12 of the last 14 winners won last time out.

•             Only 6 favourites have won in the last 31 runnings and none in the last 6 years.

•             Just 3 of the last 15 horses to start at 3/1 or shorter have won.

•             8 out of the last 12 winners were Irish-trained.

•             10 of the last 11 winners ran in the previous 45 days.

•             8 of the last 19 Supreme winners had just one or two prior runs over hurdles.

•             10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August

Summary

This is a race that it’s best to stick with trends. As you can see from the above, the likely favourite Darlan, is easily opposed, yet his form makes him look a likely winner. I have this race between 3 horses, Montbazon, for Alan King - Tetlami, for Nicky Henderson and at a higher price - Felix Yonger for Willie Mullins (now a NON runner).

Selection(s)

MONTBAZON – This horse fits all the trends, is an improving horse which is key for this race and Alan King had about 3 horses who all could have a very good chance in this race, but he kept only my selection in. E/W at 10-1.

Arkle Challenge Trophy

Key Trends

•             22 of the last 24 winners had finished first or second last time out.

•             Only 2 winning favourites since 1992. 

•             The last 20 winners started at no bigger than 11/1.

•             10 of the last 11 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles.

•             5 of the last 10 winners entered the race as the highest-rated hurdler in the line up.

•             Only 2 winners aged over 7 in the last 19 runnings.

Summary

If anything Cue Card fits the most trends, so could be an e/w shot for anyone as stats do not lie. Personally, I will be going against the trends here as I honestly believe it to be out of the top 2 in the betting – Sprinter Sacre and Al Ferof.

Selection(s)

AL FEROF – This horse will relish the hill at the end of the race just like last year in the Supreme (where he outstayed Sprinter Sacre). Sprinter Sacre is feared though obviously as he has improved leaps and bounds this year. 11-4, WIN.

JLT Speciality Chase

Key Trends

•             Only two winning favourites have won since 1977.

•             Novices have won 3 of the last 7 runnings.

•             8 of the last 10 winners could be found in the first 4 in the betting.

•             The last 11 winners carried less than 11 stone.

•             No winner rated 150+ for 28 years and the last 11 winners were rated no higher than               143 (50% of the 2010 field were rated 144+).

•             Five-year-olds are 1-85 since 1985.

•             Just 3 winners older than eight since 1951.

•             No horse aged 11+ has been placed since 1997 - from 34 runners.

•             6 of the last 8 winners won on their previous outing (in fact in 2010 the 1-2-3 all won last time out, from only 5 of the 24 runners who had - including the 33/1 winner).

Summary

Surprisingly, there are only 2 horses that fit the most trends. No horses in this field fit them all. They are, Blenheim Brook and Golden Chieftain. Luckily for me, I already liked one of them!
UPDATE - Both the above are now non runners. 

Selection(s)

BLENHEIM BROOK – This is my E/W steal of the festival. Lucinda Russell has hit good form at the right time. 25-1
This is now a non runner... my replacement is Our Mick at 6-1

Champion Hurdle

Key Trends

•             23 of the last 27 winners won last time out.

•             Only one five-year-old since 1985 has won.

•             Just 3 winners have been older than eight since 1951.

•             16 of the last 22 winners had won at Cheltenham before (although not the last 2).

•             17 of the last 20 winners started in the first 6 in the betting.

•             Irish trained horses have won 7 of the last 12 runnings.

Summary

Forget the trends; there is only one winner in my opinion.

Selection(s)

HURRICANE FLY – I will not back it to win as the price is too short. But I cannot see anything beating him. Zaidpour may run a big race at a big price (40-1)

Cross Country Chase

Key Trends

•             Enda Bolger has trained the winner of 14 of the 32 cross country races staged at Cheltenham.

•             27 of those 32 were won by horses in the first five in the betting.

•             Horses aged younger than 8 are 1-72 in cross country races at Cheltenham.

•             Irish trained horses have won all six renewals - four were trained by Enda Bolger.

•             British trained horses are 0-50 from a total of 96 runners to date.

•             Nina Carberry has ridden the winner of three of the last four renewals.

Summary

If there is a race at Cheltenham that has ‘minefield’ written all over it, it’s this one. I can only advise everyone to stick to Irish trained horses.

Selection(s)

UNCLE JUNIOR – This isn't a race I’ll be going mad on, but will have a small e/w bet. Uncle Junior has good course and distance form and I will be surprised if he isn’t in the top 3. 9-2.

David Nicholson Hurdle

Key Trends

•             No real trends here as only 4 runnings, Quevega has won 3 of them.

Summary

Like the Champion Hurdle, it’s impossible to back anything against Quevaga... and it’s not at a price I want to back the fave. I’ll just watch this one.

Selection(s)

QUEVAGA – No bet.

Pulteney Land Investments Novices Handicap Chase

Key Trends

•             Note: This year the race will be run on the Old Course over 2 miles, four and a half furlongs and is for horses rated 0-140. Previously it was on the New Course, over two miles five furlongs and there was no upper limit. Thus we are not comparing like-with-like with regards to the following patterns.

•             All six winners won or finished second last time out and such horses have been responsible for the 1-2-3 four times and a 1-2 on another.

•             All six winners had won no more than once over fences, suggesting the handicapper had yet to get the bottom of the horse's true ability.

•             Four of the six winners had fallen earlier in the season.

•             Four of the last five winners ran at last season's Cheltenham Festival (3 in Novice Hurdles).

•             The last five winners were officially rated 131-139 (although this season more lower rates horses will be running than previously, as horses at the top of the handicap will be more likely to head to the new Jewson Novices' Chase.

Summary

This looks an ultra competitive race. Ferdy Murphy has Going Wrong in this... and this trainer is a very good trainer at plotting his horses in these types of races. However, as some of you are already aware, I never back anything this guy trains, and most of the time I do not back in the race either. As an exception though, as its Cheltenham I do have a selection that I will back.

Selection(s)

ACKERTAC – Even though this horse hasn’t won a race yet over fences, he looks very well handicapped in my opinion. Again, it’s not a race to go mad on -betting wise - but this horse has an excellent e/w chance. 12-1

Good luck all. I hope its a profitable day for all, whether you follow my selections or not.

The Rascal.