Cheltenham Day 2

Good evening everyone! 


Here are my thoughts for Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival. Lets hope its better than day 1.

National Hunt Chase

Key Trends

•             No outright winning favourite since 1992 and 7 of the last 9 winners have been sent off at a double figure price (four of which at 25/1+).

•             25 of the last 27 winners finished in the first 4 last time out and 7 of the last 9 winners (including the last 3) finished in the first 2 last time out.

•             Only one 6 year-old has won since 1989 (from 62 runners) and no successful 5 year-old for 33 years.

•             All seven 140+ rated chasers since 2002 have been beaten.

•             Jonjo O'Neill has won 5 renewals - including 4 of the last 9.

•             Paul Nicholls saddled just 1 placed horse in from 13 starters - of which 9 started in the first 5 in the betting.

Summary
What a tough race to start the day off. I particularly like the double priced winners trend above as my selection is definitely in that bracket. He's an improver and trainer is in form and I would have backed him today if he stayed in the race.
Selection(s)

BLENHEIM BROOK - This is my E/W steal of the festival. Lucinda Russell has hit good form at the right time. 25-1

Neptune Investments Novices Hurdles

Key Trends

•             23 of the last 25 winners started in the first 6 in the betting.

•             Just 1 winner (in 1974) aged older than 6 in the races history (since 1971).

•             26 of the last 27 winners won or came 2nd on their most recent start.

•             Nicky Henderson is 0-21 in this race. Only 2 of his runners since 1990 have finished any higher than tenth!

•             Top-six finishers in the previous season's Festival Bumper have a fine record in the Neptune: 11 have taken their chance in the last 12 runnings of which three have won (French Holly, Monsignor and Fiveforthree) and three more have been placed (Pizarro, Refinement and Rite Of Passage).

Summary
I'm going with the Irish here and have whittled it down to 2 selections. Sous Le Cieux is the danger to my selection.

Selection(s)

MONKSLAND - Some of you may remember he was a NAP for me on his most recent win. He has impressed me and feel an e/w bet at 6-1 is very good.

RSA Chase

Key Trends

•             The last 11 winners had raced at least 3 times over fences.

•             22 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

•             9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7.

•             Just two 6 year olds have won since 1978.

•             The last 47 winners raced during the same calendar year (2011 favourite, Time For Rupert, hadn't raced since 11th Dec).

Summary
All about Grands Crus for me here and going against the trends.

Selection(s)
GRANDS CRUS - This horse is a potential superstar. He was 6-1 in the Gold Cup field before opting for this race (wise choice in my opinion). 6-4 win.

QM Champion Chase

Key Trends

•             10 of the last 12 Arkle Trophy winners were 1st or 2nd in this race the next year and all 12 finished in the first 3.

•             26 of the last 27 winners had won over 2m2f+ or over course and distance.

•             28 of the last 29 winners started at odds of no bigger than 11/1.

•             10 of the last 12 winners started no bigger than 5/1.

•             8 of the last 9 winners were rated 160+ and had previously won a Grade 1 race.

•             Just one winner older than 10 since 1997.

•             8 of the last 10 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase the same season.

Summary
Again, apologies, but this is all about Sizing Europe. No bet for me, as far too short, so a small e/w on another selection.

Selection(s)
KAUTO STONE - I do not believe we have seen the best of this horse. I also feel he will relish the hill. 16-1 small e/w.

                         

Coral Cup

Key Trends

•             Only 2 favourites have won from the 17 renewals (none of the last 7).

•             No winner officially rated higher than 147.

•             10 of the last 11 winners were aged under eight.

•             6 of the last 8 winners won last time out (including the 1-2-3 in 2009).

Summary
I have this down to 2 David Pipe runners who appear to be ahead of the handicapper and its the more experienced of the 2 that I will be backing.

Selection(s)
POOLE MASTER - This horse was mightily impressive last time out, and although this is his handicap debut, I feel he could make a mockery of his mark of 135. 14-1 e/w.

Fred Winter Novices Hurdle

Key Trends

•             The last five winners won last time out.

•             3 of the last 4 winners had won at Sandown.

•             David Pipe has saddled the winner, two seconds and a third in the last 4 years.

•             Just 6 horses priced at under 10/1 have finished in the first 7 places.

Summary
A tough handicap here with plenty of chances. David Pipe demands respect and Kazlian is a horse I struggle to put people off with. Vendor is a worthy favourite, but 4-1 in a tough handicap is not for me.

Selection(s)
KAPGA DE CERISY - I am absolutely amazed that this horse is the price it is. He fought really well to win last time out and I'm very happy to take a chance. 22-1 e/w

Champion Bumper

Key Trends

•             Last time out winners have won 16 of the 18 runnings.

•             11 of those 18 winners were unbeaten in bumpers (including the last 4).

•             Irish-trained horses have won 14 of the 18 runnings.

•             Willie Mullins has trained the winner 6 times in the last 14 years (5 of which were a once-raced 5 year-old).

•             14 of the 18 winners emerged from the first 6 in the betting.

Summary
I'm not really big on bumper races... so if you want to follow someone with a lot of knowledge on them, then @kingofbumpers in your man.

Selection(s)
NEW YEAR'S EVE - John Ferguson has been a revelation this year and I feel its definitely worth a chance to follow this horse and trainers form. 6-1 e/w.




So there are my thoughts... lets hope they come good tomorrow.


The Rascal