Cheltenham Festival Day 4

Three 3rd places yesterday... at 9-1, 14-1 and 33-1 so not too bad. But need more winners.

JCB Triumph Hurdle

17 of the last 20 winners won last time out

7 of the last 10 winners made their hurdling debut after November

Just 1 of the last 16 winners rated less than 80 on the flat

The last 15 winners to have raced on the flat were all tested at 1m4f and further

Only 8 placed Irish trained horses in the last 10 years from 60 runners (Irish trained winner last year)

17 of the last 20 winners had won at least twice over hurdles

Ignore horses rated below 140 over hurdles

A run in the last 7 weeks is ideal

Summary;

I am quite surprised by ABBYSSIAL's price here as I had him in single figures. Not sure he's done wrong, and he's impressed me in his wins. Calipto is respected, but I'll pass as Nichols is still looking for that winner... I expect Guitar Pete to chase my selection home.

Selection;

Abbyssial - 14-1 @betvictor

Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle

5-year-olds have won 8 of the last 15 runnings

8 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season hurdlers

The Irish have won 7 of the last 11 runnings

8 of the last 12 winners have run in the Betfair Hurdle or Boylesports Hurdle

7 of the last 9 were officially rated between 128-135

18 of the last 20 runners had run at least 4 times in the season

17 of the last 20 runners ran in the 5 weeks before the Festival

Avoid front runners

Summary;

I'm sticking with CHELTENIAN for this. I know he's won on heavy, but he'll do better on good ground in my opinion. I thought it was a very good run in the Betfair Hurdle last time, and I think he can improve on that.

Selection;

Cheltenian - 9-1 @willhills

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurlde

All 9 winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles

All 9 winners did not run on the flat

7 of the 9 winners had previous Cheltenham runs

7 of the 9 winners had previously run over 3 miles

Respect Novices aged 7 and over

8 of the 9 winners finished first or 2nd last time out

8 of the 9 winners were from the first 5 in the betting

Summary;

Briar Hill, the winner of the bumper last year, could be the real deal. But he's going to have to be to beat KINGS PALACE. My selection is a winner at the course, on the ground and is guaranteed to stay.

Selection

Kings Palace - 7-2 @willhills

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

Just 1 of the last 20 winners was aged 10+

No winning novice since 1974

The last 14 winners had previously won a Grade 1 race

14 of the last 15 winners had won earlier in the season

10 of the last 13 winners had won or finished second at the festival previously

11 of the last 22 winners were second season chasers

9 of the last 14 winners contested the King George VI Chase

9 of the last 12 winners did not run in the same calendar year

12 of the last 13 winners were officially rated 166+

The last 13 winners were sent off in the top 3 in the betting

Summary;

How can I go against BOBS WORTH? He won for me last year, his record going left handed is excellent, his record at Cheltenham is excellent and he won last time out to prove he's still got it. I cannot see him being beaten.

Selection;

Bobs Worth - 2-1 @willhills

CGA Foxhunter Chase

21 of the last 23 winners were aged 10 or younger

23 of the last 28 winners won last time out

22 of the last 25 winners came from a point to point/foxhunter chase background

19 of the last 20 winners had previously won under rules

10 of the last 13 winners ran in 3 or less handicap chases

The last 12 winners ran no more than 3 times that season

The last 12 winners had won over 3 miles or further

11 of the last 12 winners ran in the 6 weeks before the Festival

Summary;

Not a race I like to get involved in too much, but I was rather impressed with CERTAIN FLIGHT's win at Huntingdon. I know that he has to step up on that to win this, but I do not see why not. Nice price.

Selection;

Certain Flight - 22-1 @paddypower

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle

4 of the 5 winners were second season hurdlers

Last time out winners do well in Festival handicap hurdles

4 of the 5 winners were rated 133-139 (Winner rated 149 last year, horses 2nd to 6th rated 133-139)

All winners ran in same calendar year

All 5 winners ran no more than 4 times that season

15 of the 20 placed horses have gone off at double figures

All 5 winners rated within 7lb of top rated horse

5 & 6 year olds dominated, accounting for all five wins and 8 places

Jockeys with allowances claimed 14 of the 20 places & 4 from 5 wins

Summary;

David Pipe will obviously like to win this, as he always does... so I will stick with him and I like VIEUX LION ROUGE a lot. Looks on a good enough mark to win this after impressing in 3 novice wins, and we have a nice claim with the jockey too :-)

Selection;

Vieux Lion Rouge - 15-2 @paddypower

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase

9 of the last 13 winners were rated between 129-134

14 of the last 15 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Novices have won 13 of the last 32 runnings

21 of the last 22 winners had their last outing in February or March

31 of the last 38 winners started no bigger than 10/1

Horses rated over 145 have struggled (Did finish 2nd – 5th last year)

5-year-olds have an eye catching record

Summary;

Another trainer who would like to win for their father is Nicky Henderson here. I'll stick him also, because I think that TANKS FOR THAT is his horse this year. He's now really low in the handicap compared to his best form and I think he's been plotted for this.

Selection;
Tanks for That - 16-1 @betvictor

Best of luck all.

Dudders

Cheltenham Festival Day 3

Better day yesterday, as I had a winner and a couple of places... but with 2 fallers, it could have been a lot better!

Jewson Novices’ Chase

Avoid horses that didn't finish in the first two on their last outing

Oppose novices aged older than 8

Last season’s first three home ran at the previous festival

Give preference to the winner of a pattern race over hurdles

Summary;

I massively respect Felix Yonger, and there is a good chance that Mullins/Ruby will get the hattrick of wins for the first race of the day. However, I have a real soft spot for DOUBLE ROSS and I feel the price on offer is excellent. He's a horse who thrives at Cheltenham and although he's better with a bit of cut in the ground, he's won on good here before. I also respect Wonderful Charm but Nichols is still looking for that first win.

Selection;

Double Ross - 14-1 @betvictor

Pertemps Final

The last 11 winners all ran in the same calendar year

9 of the last 18 winners won last time out despite making up on a small number of runners

Horses officially rated 150+ have struggled

The last 10 winners were double-figure priced winners

Only one winning 5-year-old in the race’s history

Don’t dismiss the oldies

Summary;

Tough race to call. Fingal Bay is clearly the class horse in the race, but has to carry top weight as proof of that. If In Doubt is weighted to push him close as well, and its no surprise to see them at the head of the market. I feel that there is another horse lurking who may be a little bit better handicapped. Well, there is no certainty that he is a better horse than 142, but I believe he is. His C&D 3rd in the Albert Bartlett 2 years ago has a link with Fingal Bay through Lovcen that says he has Fingal Bays measure over level weights. I'm happy to take the chance on him at the price. That horse is GRAND VISION.

Selection;

Grand Vision - 16-1 @willhills

Ryanair Chase

8 of the 9 winners and 7 runners-up had previously won at Cheltenham

5 of the 9 winners had either won or placed in a Paddy Power Gold Cup or December Gold Cup

5 of the last 6 winners contested the King George VI Chase

The officially top rated horse is yet to win

All 18 win and placed horses were officially rated 156+ since being made a Grade 1

Look to the first three in the betting

Summary;

There is no doubt in my mind, that the winner in this will come from one of the top 3 in the betting. Not just because its the stat above, but also because these are the best 3 in the race by some way. All have won at Cheltenham before and all will be primed for this. We look like we're in for a treat. Dynaste, is a super little horse, but I simply cannot forgive that last run, and I also do not think the drop back in trip will be that beneficial for him. Speaking of being 'Benefficient', lets move on to that horse, with the extra 'f'. He won the Jewson last year in really taking style and won last time out, so he's hitting form at the right time, but I do think that AL FEROF is the better horse out of the 3. His run when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup last November was scintillating in my opinion, considering the weight he was carrying and with the drop back to that trip in mind, I have to back him.

Selection;

Al Ferof - 5-1 @paddypower

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

The last 11 winners finished in the first two last time out

The last 11 winners ran no more than 4 times since August

9 of the last 11 winners had won a graded hurdle over at least 3 miles

10 of the last 11 winners finished in the top two in all hurdle starts that season

9 of the last 11 winners had an RPR of at least 165

9 of the last 11 winners had 8-20 runs over hurdles

8 of the last 11 winners were aged 6-8

9 of the last 11 winners had previously ran at the festival

First 5 in the betting have a strong record

Dismiss prominent runners

Respect French-bred horses

The Irish have won just once in the last 18 years. (Won last year)

Summary;

So then, we're here at the big one, which has to be one of the most intriguing races this year. We have the horse, Big Bucks that has dominated in this race with a record of 4 out of 4 between 2009 and 2012. We then have the mare Annie Power who has done nothing wrong whatsoever on her way to favoritism for this race. I am not against either, as such, and will be happy for either of them to win but the fact that we don't know whether Annie Power will stay (breeding doesn't scream out for it in my opinion) and we do not know exactly how Big Bucks is after his injury, I have to look elsewhere. I don't think Zarkandar will stay, and anyway, Annie Power has his measure... If Rule The World can lose to Zaidpour then he is certainly no world hurdler... this leaves me whittled down to 3. Celestial Halo is an absolute favourite of mine, and I would be happy for him to win, but I feel a place at best for him. It will be interesting to see just how good More of That is, but I feel this might be a step too far for this relatively inexperienced horse. SO. That leaves me with AT FISHERS CROSS. This horse seems to come alive at Cheltenham, which is always a plus and the trainer has hit form recently. If he makes no mistakes, he'll go very, very close in my opinion.

Selection;

At Fishers Cross - 9-1 @willhills

Byrne Group Plate

24 of the last 26 winners were officially rated no higher than 141

7 of the last 14 winners were French-bred

Only 1 Irish trained winner in last 61 years

12 of the last 13 winners started at 10/1 or bigger (only 1 winning fav in last 10 years)

18 of the last 22 winners were placed in the first 4 last time out

14 of the last 15 winners ran no more than 16 times over fences

18 of the last 22 winners had ran at the Cheltenham Festival before

Be wary of horses that haven’t run in the last 6 weeks

Summary;

Tough race to call, and normally a race where horses are kept with this in mind. I will take a chance with the veteran TATENEN who ran an excellent race last time out and is in good form at present. I'll be happy with just a place.

Selection;

Tatenen - 25-1 with various boookmakers

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Only 5 of last 35 winners aged seven or younger

8 & 9 year olds have won 15 of the last 20 runnings

Avoid the Irish horses

Trevor Hemmings has owned 3 of the last 9 winners

Look to non-claiming amateur jockeys

Top half of the handicap have a better record

The last 13 winners ran over at least 3 miles last time out

Summary;

BUDDY BOLERO for me :-) small bet though.

Selection;

Buddy Bolero - 16-1 @betvictor

Best of luck

Dudders

Cheltenham Festival Day 2

Not the best of starts to a Cheltenham Festival yesterday, and to top if off, we lost Our Conor, which is extremely upsetting.

Lets change our fortunes today.

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

The Irish have won 4 of the last 8 renewals

Just 1 winner aged over 6 for 39 years

14 of the last 16 winners had contested pattern races over hurdles

All 14 Challow Hurdle winners to run have been beaten

26 of the last 28 winners started in the first 6 in the betting

Be sceptical of ex-flat horses

29 of the last 30 winners won or finished 2nd on their last outing

Nicky Henderson is 1-33 (No runner in 2013, won in 2012)

Respect top-six finishers in last year’s Champion Bumper

Summary;

I cannot see past the favourite in this race, and that will be FAUGHEEN. He's versatile on ground and distance and looks the real deal to me. There are a few in here who should push him, but I think Mullins/Walsh will be celebrating in the first race again.

Selection;

Faugheen - 5-2 @paddypower

RSA Chase

The last 14 winners had run at least 3 times over fences

The last 11 winners had finished in the first three in a grade 1 or 2 chase

18 of the last 21 winners were contesting novice hurdles the previous season

7-year-olds have won the last 8 runnings

The last 50 winners ran during the same calendar year

24 of the last 26 winners won or finished 2nd last time out

Traditional NH breeds have won 20 of the last 22 runnings

Summary;

As the betting suggests, this is a tight race to call. BLACK THUNDER has flourished since chasing and should appreciate the drying ground. The Irish raiders are a threat of course, as Ballycasey and Morning Assembly look to have strong credentials, but I'm hoping Paul Nichols can get his first winner of the festival with Black Thunder. Nice price too.

Selection;

Black Thunder - 20-1 with various bookmakers

Coral Cup

7 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers

11 of the last 13 winners had won no more than one handicap

7 of the last 11 winners won last time out

The Irish have won 7 runnings from less than 20% representation

15 of the last 20 winners had won earlier in the season

No winner officially rated higher than 148

11 of the last 13 winners carried no more than 11-2

11 of the last 18 winners ran no more than 3 times earlier in the season

5 of the last 8 winners ran in the same calendar year

12 of the last 14 winners were 7 or younger

Summary;

This isn't a race I tend to do well in... so i'm going to stick with DELL' ARCA who I backed last time out. He has also, when finishing a race, never finished outside of the first 3.

Selection;

Dell' Arca - 14-1 @willhill

Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase

9 of the last 13 winner contested the Tingle Creek

19 of the last 29 winners had won at the Cheltenham Festival before

The last 14 Arkle winners to run the following year have all placed at worst

11 of the last 12 winners had previously won a grade 1 race

31 of the last 32 winners started no bigger than 11/1

The Irish & Paul Nicholls have won 9 of the last 14 runnings between them

Avoid horses with 5 or more runs this season

Oppose horses that failed to place last time out upon completion

Summary;

I make it 1 all in the Sire De Grugy vrs CAPTAIN CONAN match ups, and I make them very close on form figures this time out. The fact that Captain Conan won over C&D and Sire De Grugy is seemingly better going right handed... its Captain Conan for me. I'm even going to stick my neck on the line and say that I think Hinterland can chase him home.

Selection;

Captain Conan - 5-1 @betvictor

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

25 of the last 26 winners had previously contested a cross country chase

Only 1 British trained winner, British trained runners now 1-63

Enda Bolger has an outstanding record in cross country chases staged at Cheltenham

33 of the 39 cross country races staged at Cheltenham were won by horses in the first five in the betting

Horses aged under 8 are 1-79 in cross country races at Cheltenham

Weight is not a significant factor

Key races: Cross country chase at Cheltenham in December, PP Hogan Memorial Chase, La Touche Cup

Summary;

You have to respect Balthazar King, as his C&D form is tremendous, and he has won this race before. But he still remains the only British trained horse to win this out of 63 runnings. I will be sticking with the Irish, and I will be sticking with last years winner BIG SHU. He is a thorough stayer, and would have probably won his last race if it was a few furlongs further. 

Selection;

Big Shu - 5-1 @paddypower

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

7 of the 9 winners were beaten on their first 2 starts over hurdles

6 of the last 7 winners’ sire had won at Group 1 level on the flat

6 of the 9 winners had run exactly 3 times to acquire a handicap mark

5 of the last 8 winners won last time out

Fillies have won 4 of the 9 runnings

3 of the 9 winners were the highest rated on flat form

5 of the 9 winners were French breds or French imports

5 of the 9 winners emerged from the top half of the handicap

3 of last 7 winners had won at Sandown

3 of the last 7 winners beat older horses on their latest start

Summary;

Many, many horses here have credentials to win this. I had whittled this down to about 5 on form but the one I am taking a poke at will be ASTRE DE LA COUR... I liked his last race a lot and think he could potentially be a better rated horse than 130.

Selection;

Astre De Le Cour - 25-1 with various bookmakers

Weatherbys Champion Bumper

19 of the 21 winners won last time out

12 of the 21 winners were unbeaten in bumpers including 4 of last 6 winners

Willie Mullins has trained 8 winners

17 of the 21 winners were Irish bred

14 of the 21 winners emerged from the first 6 in the betting

16 of the 21 winners had won a bumper with at least 14 runners

Summary;

You want Irish, you want unbeaten (preferably) and you pretty much want Willie Mullins. Not a race I like to go big on, so just a small e/w on BLACK HERCULES.

Selection;
Black Hercules - 8-1 @betvictor

Best of luck all.

Dudders

Cheltenham Festival Day 1

Its been 3 months since my last blog, but how could I let the Cheltenham Festival pass without expressing my thoughts.

I absolutely adore the Cheltenham Festival, whether I win big, lose big or do not even bet, its my favourite sporting event of the year.

Lets see if this year can be one of those 'winning big' years.

As usual, I'll start all of my blogs this week with the trends for each race;

Skybet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Trends;

• 15 of the last 17 winners won last time out
• 19 of the last 23 winners were aged 5 or 6
• NH breeds have started to dominate recently
• The Irish have won 9 of the last 15 runnings
• 16 of the previous 19 winners had run in the previous 45 days
• Just 3 of the last 18 horses to start 3/1 or shorter have won
• Key races: Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle, Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle, Champion Bumper
• Respect French-bred 4-year-olds receiving weight

Summary;
I suppose I have to start with the favourite. Irvine HAS to be respected for this race as he hasn't done much wrong in all 4 starts in the UK (jumping can be slightly suspect in my opinion), is unbeaten and has impressed in the process. However, favourites do not have a good record in this race, so maybe its best to look elsewhere? Form figures would suggest that Irvine has the measure of many of these, including Splash of Ginge, Vaniteux and Sgt Reckless, so if you are an Irvine fan, then you should be pretty confident. Although I am a fan, I am looking elsewhere, and I believe that Willie Mullins will get the Irish cheering from the very start. But, which one? Vautour is a horse that has done nothing wrong since moving over to Ireland, from France and is currently unbeaten, but I am hoping for a pretty fast pace, and a waited with ride by Paul Townend. WICKLOW BRAVE represents a very strong chance on form and is my selection, as also, he should have no worries with the drying ground.  

Selection;

Wicklow Brave - 15-2 @betvictor

Racing Post Arkle Chase

Trends;

13 of the last 14 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles

Only 4 of the last 20 favourites have won

The 2nd – 4th favourite has won 15 of the last 21 runnings

Ignore horses that aren’t aged 5-8

25 of the last 27 winners finished first or second last time out

10 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 2 on all completed chase starts

The last 11 winners’ SP was no bigger than 9/1

11 of the last 12 winners were rated within 12lb of RPR top-rated

10 of the last 11 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 151

9 of the last 11 winners had three to five runs over fences

9 of the last 11 winners had an RPR hurdle rating of at least 153

8 of the last 11 winners had won a novice chase over 2m to 2m1f

Just 1 winning front-running performance since 1980

Respect the top rated hurdler

Winning course form / placed form at the Festival a big advantage

Key races: November Chase, Racing Post Chase & Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle at Leopardstown

Summary;

Champagne Fever did me a favour last year by getting my festival up and running at the first hurdle. I simply cannot back him for this race though, as the above stats are very much against. I have this down to 2, DODGING BULLETS and Grandouet. I would very much love to be able to back the latter, but he just hasn't been able to compete at the top level yet (although he does have a Group 1 win to his name). I expect the drying ground will help, but I believe it will for my selection as well. Dodging Bullets has improved for fences and is the clear form pick in my opinion. The heavy ground scuppered his unbeaten record over the bigger obstacles and this C&D winner can get right back on track here. 

Selection;

Dodging Bullets - 6-1 @paddypower

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

Trends;

The last 14 winners were officially rated no more than 143

Novices have won only 3 of the last 10 runnings

Horses aged 11+ are 1-44 to place since 1997

9 of the last 13 winners started in the first four in the betting

6 of the last 11 winners won last time out

7 of the last 16 winners have finished in the first four at the festival before

Oppose Grand National hopefuls

Respect Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Ferdy Murphy, Jonjo O’Neill & the Irish

Summary;

The main trend that I'll be following is the first one, so I have scrubbed off any horse rated above 143. Oh and for obvious reasons I have removed the old horses. This doesn't actually whittle them down too much, so still a long way to go. There are a few horses in this that I like, whether it be for course form, or trainer form... and I would be very happy to see either Time For Rupert or Alfie Sherrin win. But the horse I like the most is WRONG TURN. This Tony Martin trained horse has won his last 3 completed starts, and seems pretty unexposed to me. Obviously, he has to stay on his feet, but if he does, he has an outstanding e/w chance.

Selection;

Wrong Turn - 14-1 with various bookmakers

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Trends;

25 of the last 30 winners won last time out

10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 9 (5-year-olds are 1-90 since 1985)

19 of the last 29 winners finished in the first four at last year’s festival

18 of the last 19 winners ran during the same calendar year

Just 1 of the last 23 Xmas Hurdle winners has won the Champion Hurdle in the same season

The Irish have won 9 of the last 15 runnings

20 of the last 23 winners started in the first six in the betting

9 of the last 11 winners had 10 to 25 runs over hurdles

9 of the last 11 winners had a pre-race RPR rating of at least 162

9 of the last 11 winners had a Top Speed of at least 152

9 of the last 11 winners were rated within 7lb of RPR top rated

8 of the last 11 winners had won either a Grade 1 hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap hurdle

8 of the last 11 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 that season

6 of the last 11 winners had won at the Festival before

Summary;

This is an incredibly intriguing renewal with many questions over pretty much all runners. Can Hurricane Fly really win a Champion Hurdle at 10? Can Jezki or Our Conor reverse the Irish form placings with Hurricane Fly? Will My Tent or Yours make it up the steep Cheltenham hill? Or will The New One have enough pace to win a Champion Hurdle? To me, and I may have egg on my face for saying this, but I do not think that Hurricane fly will win at 10. He hasn't oozed the class this year like normally for me, and I also do not think that the other Irish challengers will improve past him. That leaves me with the British raiders and I am really struggling to split them. I DO think that My Tent or Yours can find for pressure up the Cheltenham hill, and I also believe The New One to be the real deal at 2 miles. The Christmas Hurdle has been an awful trial for this race in recent years, which My Tent or Yours won, but The New One would have undoubtedly beaten him that day, without the final hurdle blunder. Right, ok... for having the course form, I'm with THE NEW ONE. One thing is for sure though, this will be an excellent renewal.

Selection;

The New One - 3-1 @betvictor

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

Trends;

Irish trained mares have fared well

Novices’ have overperformed so far

Front runners have struggled

Summary;

Cheltenham, then Punchestown... Cheltenham, then Punchestown. This is all that Quevega has been interested in since March 2010, but she has won them all. She has won this race the last 5 years and I want nothing else, but for her to win again. Cockney Sparrow can follow her home. 

Selection;

None - I am just watching this, as I do not bet at such short odds.

Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase

Trends;

Just 1 winning 5/6 year-old since 1989 from 65 runners

9 of the last 12 winners finished first or 2nd last time out

Dismiss runners with less than 3 chase starts

Horses that have tackled open handicaps have fared well

7 of the last 11 winners started at a double-figure price

4 of the last 7 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham that season

Respect Jonjo O’Neill, Ferdy Murphy and JP McManus’ runners

Paul Nicholls’ runners have struggled so far

The last 3 winners contested a Grade 1 Novices’ Chase earlier in the season

Summary;

Foxrock is a worthy favourite with his form, but surely, as the above trend states, he is too young? For a 4 mile chase around Cheltenham with amateur jockeys, I believe you need a horse than can jump well, and I mean really well. I have been very impressed with SHOTGUN PADDY in that department and is a clear stayer. Ground may be a concern for many, but he has ran well on good to soft before, so I am happy to give him a chance on that. He beat Carruthers and Loch Ba last time out, so that is not bad form at all.

Selection;

Shotgun Paddy - 5-1 @betvictor

Rewards4Racing Novices’ Chase

Trends;

8 of the 9 winners won or finished 2nd last time out

7 of the 9 winners had won no more than once over fences

6 of the 9 winners were running in their first handicap chase

7-year-olds have won 6 of the 9 runnings

4 of the 9 winners ran at last year’s Cheltenham Festival

Only 1 winner won either of first 2 chase starts

Summary;

I am not sure if anyone is still awake to read this, so I will keep it short. This is an incredibly tough race to call. My selection will have to carry the top weight, but Hunt Ball, the winner of this race in 2012, carried heavier... so it can be done. ERICHT is that horse, and I am mainly following the top 2 trends above. 

Selection;
Ericht - 10-1 @betvictor


Best of luck all.

Dudders