Cheltenham Festival Day 2

Not the best of starts to a Cheltenham Festival yesterday, and to top if off, we lost Our Conor, which is extremely upsetting.

Lets change our fortunes today.

Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

The Irish have won 4 of the last 8 renewals

Just 1 winner aged over 6 for 39 years

14 of the last 16 winners had contested pattern races over hurdles

All 14 Challow Hurdle winners to run have been beaten

26 of the last 28 winners started in the first 6 in the betting

Be sceptical of ex-flat horses

29 of the last 30 winners won or finished 2nd on their last outing

Nicky Henderson is 1-33 (No runner in 2013, won in 2012)

Respect top-six finishers in last year’s Champion Bumper

Summary;

I cannot see past the favourite in this race, and that will be FAUGHEEN. He's versatile on ground and distance and looks the real deal to me. There are a few in here who should push him, but I think Mullins/Walsh will be celebrating in the first race again.

Selection;

Faugheen - 5-2 @paddypower

RSA Chase

The last 14 winners had run at least 3 times over fences

The last 11 winners had finished in the first three in a grade 1 or 2 chase

18 of the last 21 winners were contesting novice hurdles the previous season

7-year-olds have won the last 8 runnings

The last 50 winners ran during the same calendar year

24 of the last 26 winners won or finished 2nd last time out

Traditional NH breeds have won 20 of the last 22 runnings

Summary;

As the betting suggests, this is a tight race to call. BLACK THUNDER has flourished since chasing and should appreciate the drying ground. The Irish raiders are a threat of course, as Ballycasey and Morning Assembly look to have strong credentials, but I'm hoping Paul Nichols can get his first winner of the festival with Black Thunder. Nice price too.

Selection;

Black Thunder - 20-1 with various bookmakers

Coral Cup

7 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers

11 of the last 13 winners had won no more than one handicap

7 of the last 11 winners won last time out

The Irish have won 7 runnings from less than 20% representation

15 of the last 20 winners had won earlier in the season

No winner officially rated higher than 148

11 of the last 13 winners carried no more than 11-2

11 of the last 18 winners ran no more than 3 times earlier in the season

5 of the last 8 winners ran in the same calendar year

12 of the last 14 winners were 7 or younger

Summary;

This isn't a race I tend to do well in... so i'm going to stick with DELL' ARCA who I backed last time out. He has also, when finishing a race, never finished outside of the first 3.

Selection;

Dell' Arca - 14-1 @willhill

Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase

9 of the last 13 winner contested the Tingle Creek

19 of the last 29 winners had won at the Cheltenham Festival before

The last 14 Arkle winners to run the following year have all placed at worst

11 of the last 12 winners had previously won a grade 1 race

31 of the last 32 winners started no bigger than 11/1

The Irish & Paul Nicholls have won 9 of the last 14 runnings between them

Avoid horses with 5 or more runs this season

Oppose horses that failed to place last time out upon completion

Summary;

I make it 1 all in the Sire De Grugy vrs CAPTAIN CONAN match ups, and I make them very close on form figures this time out. The fact that Captain Conan won over C&D and Sire De Grugy is seemingly better going right handed... its Captain Conan for me. I'm even going to stick my neck on the line and say that I think Hinterland can chase him home.

Selection;

Captain Conan - 5-1 @betvictor

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

25 of the last 26 winners had previously contested a cross country chase

Only 1 British trained winner, British trained runners now 1-63

Enda Bolger has an outstanding record in cross country chases staged at Cheltenham

33 of the 39 cross country races staged at Cheltenham were won by horses in the first five in the betting

Horses aged under 8 are 1-79 in cross country races at Cheltenham

Weight is not a significant factor

Key races: Cross country chase at Cheltenham in December, PP Hogan Memorial Chase, La Touche Cup

Summary;

You have to respect Balthazar King, as his C&D form is tremendous, and he has won this race before. But he still remains the only British trained horse to win this out of 63 runnings. I will be sticking with the Irish, and I will be sticking with last years winner BIG SHU. He is a thorough stayer, and would have probably won his last race if it was a few furlongs further. 

Selection;

Big Shu - 5-1 @paddypower

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

7 of the 9 winners were beaten on their first 2 starts over hurdles

6 of the last 7 winners’ sire had won at Group 1 level on the flat

6 of the 9 winners had run exactly 3 times to acquire a handicap mark

5 of the last 8 winners won last time out

Fillies have won 4 of the 9 runnings

3 of the 9 winners were the highest rated on flat form

5 of the 9 winners were French breds or French imports

5 of the 9 winners emerged from the top half of the handicap

3 of last 7 winners had won at Sandown

3 of the last 7 winners beat older horses on their latest start

Summary;

Many, many horses here have credentials to win this. I had whittled this down to about 5 on form but the one I am taking a poke at will be ASTRE DE LA COUR... I liked his last race a lot and think he could potentially be a better rated horse than 130.

Selection;

Astre De Le Cour - 25-1 with various bookmakers

Weatherbys Champion Bumper

19 of the 21 winners won last time out

12 of the 21 winners were unbeaten in bumpers including 4 of last 6 winners

Willie Mullins has trained 8 winners

17 of the 21 winners were Irish bred

14 of the 21 winners emerged from the first 6 in the betting

16 of the 21 winners had won a bumper with at least 14 runners

Summary;

You want Irish, you want unbeaten (preferably) and you pretty much want Willie Mullins. Not a race I like to go big on, so just a small e/w on BLACK HERCULES.

Selection;
Black Hercules - 8-1 @betvictor

Best of luck all.

Dudders