Jewson Novices’ Chase
Summary;
I massively respect Felix Yonger, and there is a good chance that Mullins/Ruby will get the hattrick of wins for the first race of the day. However, I have a real soft spot for DOUBLE ROSS and I feel the price on offer is excellent. He's a horse who thrives at Cheltenham and although he's better with a bit of cut in the ground, he's won on good here before. I also respect Wonderful Charm but Nichols is still looking for that first win.
Selection;
Double Ross - 14-1 @betvictor
Pertemps Final
Summary;
Tough race to call. Fingal Bay is clearly the class horse in the race, but has to carry top weight as proof of that. If In Doubt is weighted to push him close as well, and its no surprise to see them at the head of the market. I feel that there is another horse lurking who may be a little bit better handicapped. Well, there is no certainty that he is a better horse than 142, but I believe he is. His C&D 3rd in the Albert Bartlett 2 years ago has a link with Fingal Bay through Lovcen that says he has Fingal Bays measure over level weights. I'm happy to take the chance on him at the price. That horse is GRAND VISION.
Selection;
Grand Vision - 16-1 @willhills
Ryanair Chase
8 of the 9 winners and 7 runners-up had previously won at Cheltenham
5 of the 9 winners had either won or placed in a Paddy Power Gold Cup or December Gold Cup
5 of the last 6 winners contested the King George VI Chase
The officially top rated horse is yet to win
All 18 win and placed horses were officially rated 156+ since being made a Grade 1
Look to the first three in the betting
Summary;
There is no doubt in my mind, that the winner in this will come from one of the top 3 in the betting. Not just because its the stat above, but also because these are the best 3 in the race by some way. All have won at Cheltenham before and all will be primed for this. We look like we're in for a treat. Dynaste, is a super little horse, but I simply cannot forgive that last run, and I also do not think the drop back in trip will be that beneficial for him. Speaking of being 'Benefficient', lets move on to that horse, with the extra 'f'. He won the Jewson last year in really taking style and won last time out, so he's hitting form at the right time, but I do think that AL FEROF is the better horse out of the 3. His run when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup last November was scintillating in my opinion, considering the weight he was carrying and with the drop back to that trip in mind, I have to back him.
Selection;
Al Ferof - 5-1 @paddypower
Ladbrokes World Hurdle
The last 11 winners finished in the first two last time out
The last 11 winners ran no more than 4 times since August
9 of the last 11 winners had won a graded hurdle over at least 3 miles
10 of the last 11 winners finished in the top two in all hurdle starts that season
9 of the last 11 winners had an RPR of at least 165
9 of the last 11 winners had 8-20 runs over hurdles
8 of the last 11 winners were aged 6-8
9 of the last 11 winners had previously ran at the festival
First 5 in the betting have a strong record
Dismiss prominent runners
Respect French-bred horses
The Irish have won just once in the last 18 years. (Won last year)
Summary;
So then, we're here at the big one, which has to be one of the most intriguing races this year. We have the horse, Big Bucks that has dominated in this race with a record of 4 out of 4 between 2009 and 2012. We then have the mare Annie Power who has done nothing wrong whatsoever on her way to favoritism for this race. I am not against either, as such, and will be happy for either of them to win but the fact that we don't know whether Annie Power will stay (breeding doesn't scream out for it in my opinion) and we do not know exactly how Big Bucks is after his injury, I have to look elsewhere. I don't think Zarkandar will stay, and anyway, Annie Power has his measure... If Rule The World can lose to Zaidpour then he is certainly no world hurdler... this leaves me whittled down to 3. Celestial Halo is an absolute favourite of mine, and I would be happy for him to win, but I feel a place at best for him. It will be interesting to see just how good More of That is, but I feel this might be a step too far for this relatively inexperienced horse. SO. That leaves me with AT FISHERS CROSS. This horse seems to come alive at Cheltenham, which is always a plus and the trainer has hit form recently. If he makes no mistakes, he'll go very, very close in my opinion.
Selection;
At Fishers Cross - 9-1 @willhills
Byrne Group Plate
24 of the last 26 winners were officially rated no higher than 141
7 of the last 14 winners were French-bred
Only 1 Irish trained winner in last 61 years
12 of the last 13 winners started at 10/1 or bigger (only 1 winning fav in last 10 years)
18 of the last 22 winners were placed in the first 4 last time out
14 of the last 15 winners ran no more than 16 times over fences
18 of the last 22 winners had ran at the Cheltenham Festival before
Be wary of horses that haven’t run in the last 6 weeks
Summary;
Tough race to call, and normally a race where horses are kept with this in mind. I will take a chance with the veteran TATENEN who ran an excellent race last time out and is in good form at present. I'll be happy with just a place.
Selection;
Tatenen - 25-1 with various boookmakers
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Summary;
BUDDY BOLERO for me :-) small bet though.
Selection;
Buddy Bolero - 16-1 @betvictor
Best of luck
Dudders
Best of luck
Dudders
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