JCB Triumph Hurdle
17 of the last 20 winners won last time out
7 of the last 10 winners made their hurdling debut after November
Just 1 of the last 16 winners rated less than 80 on the flat
The last 15 winners to have raced on the flat were all tested at 1m4f and further
Only 8 placed Irish trained horses in the last 10 years from 60 runners (Irish trained winner last year)
17 of the last 20 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
Ignore horses rated below 140 over hurdles
A run in the last 7 weeks is ideal
Summary;
I am quite surprised by ABBYSSIAL's price here as I had him in single figures. Not sure he's done wrong, and he's impressed me in his wins. Calipto is respected, but I'll pass as Nichols is still looking for that winner... I expect Guitar Pete to chase my selection home.
Selection;
Abbyssial - 14-1 @betvictor
Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle
5-year-olds have won 8 of the last 15 runnings
8 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season hurdlers
The Irish have won 7 of the last 11 runnings
8 of the last 12 winners have run in the Betfair Hurdle or Boylesports Hurdle
7 of the last 9 were officially rated between 128-135
18 of the last 20 runners had run at least 4 times in the season
17 of the last 20 runners ran in the 5 weeks before the Festival
Avoid front runners
Summary;
I'm sticking with CHELTENIAN for this. I know he's won on heavy, but he'll do better on good ground in my opinion. I thought it was a very good run in the Betfair Hurdle last time, and I think he can improve on that.
Selection;
Cheltenian - 9-1 @willhills
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurlde
All 9 winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles
All 9 winners did not run on the flat
7 of the 9 winners had previous Cheltenham runs
7 of the 9 winners had previously run over 3 miles
Respect Novices aged 7 and over
8 of the 9 winners finished first or 2nd last time out
8 of the 9 winners were from the first 5 in the betting
Summary;
Briar Hill, the winner of the bumper last year, could be the real deal. But he's going to have to be to beat KINGS PALACE. My selection is a winner at the course, on the ground and is guaranteed to stay.
Selection
Kings Palace - 7-2 @willhills
Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup
Just 1 of the last 20 winners was aged 10+
No winning novice since 1974
The last 14 winners had previously won a Grade 1 race
14 of the last 15 winners had won earlier in the season
10 of the last 13 winners had won or finished second at the festival previously
11 of the last 22 winners were second season chasers
9 of the last 14 winners contested the King George VI Chase
9 of the last 12 winners did not run in the same calendar year
12 of the last 13 winners were officially rated 166+
The last 13 winners were sent off in the top 3 in the betting
Summary;
How can I go against BOBS WORTH? He won for me last year, his record going left handed is excellent, his record at Cheltenham is excellent and he won last time out to prove he's still got it. I cannot see him being beaten.
Selection;
Bobs Worth - 2-1 @willhills
CGA Foxhunter Chase
21 of the last 23 winners were aged 10 or younger
23 of the last 28 winners won last time out
22 of the last 25 winners came from a point to point/foxhunter chase background
19 of the last 20 winners had previously won under rules
10 of the last 13 winners ran in 3 or less handicap chases
The last 12 winners ran no more than 3 times that season
The last 12 winners had won over 3 miles or further
11 of the last 12 winners ran in the 6 weeks before the Festival
Summary;
Not a race I like to get involved in too much, but I was rather impressed with CERTAIN FLIGHT's win at Huntingdon. I know that he has to step up on that to win this, but I do not see why not. Nice price.
Selection;
Certain Flight - 22-1 @paddypower
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle
4 of the 5 winners were second season hurdlers
Last time out winners do well in Festival handicap hurdles
4 of the 5 winners were rated 133-139 (Winner rated 149 last year, horses 2nd to 6th rated 133-139)
All winners ran in same calendar year
All 5 winners ran no more than 4 times that season
15 of the 20 placed horses have gone off at double figures
All 5 winners rated within 7lb of top rated horse
5 & 6 year olds dominated, accounting for all five wins and 8 places
Jockeys with allowances claimed 14 of the 20 places & 4 from 5 wins
Summary;
David Pipe will obviously like to win this, as he always does... so I will stick with him and I like VIEUX LION ROUGE a lot. Looks on a good enough mark to win this after impressing in 3 novice wins, and we have a nice claim with the jockey too :-)
Selection;
Vieux Lion Rouge - 15-2 @paddypower
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
9 of the last 13 winners were rated between 129-134
14 of the last 15 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
Novices have won 13 of the last 32 runnings
21 of the last 22 winners had their last outing in February or March
31 of the last 38 winners started no bigger than 10/1
Horses rated over 145 have struggled (Did finish 2nd – 5th last year)
5-year-olds have an eye catching record
Summary;
Another trainer who would like to win for their father is Nicky Henderson here. I'll stick him also, because I think that TANKS FOR THAT is his horse this year. He's now really low in the handicap compared to his best form and I think he's been plotted for this.
Selection;
Tanks for That - 16-1 @betvictor
Best of luck all.
Dudders
Tanks for That - 16-1 @betvictor
Best of luck all.
Dudders
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