Cheltenham Festival Day 1

Its been 3 months since my last blog, but how could I let the Cheltenham Festival pass without expressing my thoughts.

I absolutely adore the Cheltenham Festival, whether I win big, lose big or do not even bet, its my favourite sporting event of the year.

Lets see if this year can be one of those 'winning big' years.

As usual, I'll start all of my blogs this week with the trends for each race;

Skybet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Trends;

• 15 of the last 17 winners won last time out
• 19 of the last 23 winners were aged 5 or 6
• NH breeds have started to dominate recently
• The Irish have won 9 of the last 15 runnings
• 16 of the previous 19 winners had run in the previous 45 days
• Just 3 of the last 18 horses to start 3/1 or shorter have won
• Key races: Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle, Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle, Champion Bumper
• Respect French-bred 4-year-olds receiving weight

Summary;
I suppose I have to start with the favourite. Irvine HAS to be respected for this race as he hasn't done much wrong in all 4 starts in the UK (jumping can be slightly suspect in my opinion), is unbeaten and has impressed in the process. However, favourites do not have a good record in this race, so maybe its best to look elsewhere? Form figures would suggest that Irvine has the measure of many of these, including Splash of Ginge, Vaniteux and Sgt Reckless, so if you are an Irvine fan, then you should be pretty confident. Although I am a fan, I am looking elsewhere, and I believe that Willie Mullins will get the Irish cheering from the very start. But, which one? Vautour is a horse that has done nothing wrong since moving over to Ireland, from France and is currently unbeaten, but I am hoping for a pretty fast pace, and a waited with ride by Paul Townend. WICKLOW BRAVE represents a very strong chance on form and is my selection, as also, he should have no worries with the drying ground.  

Selection;

Wicklow Brave - 15-2 @betvictor

Racing Post Arkle Chase

Trends;

13 of the last 14 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles

Only 4 of the last 20 favourites have won

The 2nd – 4th favourite has won 15 of the last 21 runnings

Ignore horses that aren’t aged 5-8

25 of the last 27 winners finished first or second last time out

10 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 2 on all completed chase starts

The last 11 winners’ SP was no bigger than 9/1

11 of the last 12 winners were rated within 12lb of RPR top-rated

10 of the last 11 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 151

9 of the last 11 winners had three to five runs over fences

9 of the last 11 winners had an RPR hurdle rating of at least 153

8 of the last 11 winners had won a novice chase over 2m to 2m1f

Just 1 winning front-running performance since 1980

Respect the top rated hurdler

Winning course form / placed form at the Festival a big advantage

Key races: November Chase, Racing Post Chase & Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle at Leopardstown

Summary;

Champagne Fever did me a favour last year by getting my festival up and running at the first hurdle. I simply cannot back him for this race though, as the above stats are very much against. I have this down to 2, DODGING BULLETS and Grandouet. I would very much love to be able to back the latter, but he just hasn't been able to compete at the top level yet (although he does have a Group 1 win to his name). I expect the drying ground will help, but I believe it will for my selection as well. Dodging Bullets has improved for fences and is the clear form pick in my opinion. The heavy ground scuppered his unbeaten record over the bigger obstacles and this C&D winner can get right back on track here. 

Selection;

Dodging Bullets - 6-1 @paddypower

JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

Trends;

The last 14 winners were officially rated no more than 143

Novices have won only 3 of the last 10 runnings

Horses aged 11+ are 1-44 to place since 1997

9 of the last 13 winners started in the first four in the betting

6 of the last 11 winners won last time out

7 of the last 16 winners have finished in the first four at the festival before

Oppose Grand National hopefuls

Respect Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Ferdy Murphy, Jonjo O’Neill & the Irish

Summary;

The main trend that I'll be following is the first one, so I have scrubbed off any horse rated above 143. Oh and for obvious reasons I have removed the old horses. This doesn't actually whittle them down too much, so still a long way to go. There are a few horses in this that I like, whether it be for course form, or trainer form... and I would be very happy to see either Time For Rupert or Alfie Sherrin win. But the horse I like the most is WRONG TURN. This Tony Martin trained horse has won his last 3 completed starts, and seems pretty unexposed to me. Obviously, he has to stay on his feet, but if he does, he has an outstanding e/w chance.

Selection;

Wrong Turn - 14-1 with various bookmakers

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Trends;

25 of the last 30 winners won last time out

10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 9 (5-year-olds are 1-90 since 1985)

19 of the last 29 winners finished in the first four at last year’s festival

18 of the last 19 winners ran during the same calendar year

Just 1 of the last 23 Xmas Hurdle winners has won the Champion Hurdle in the same season

The Irish have won 9 of the last 15 runnings

20 of the last 23 winners started in the first six in the betting

9 of the last 11 winners had 10 to 25 runs over hurdles

9 of the last 11 winners had a pre-race RPR rating of at least 162

9 of the last 11 winners had a Top Speed of at least 152

9 of the last 11 winners were rated within 7lb of RPR top rated

8 of the last 11 winners had won either a Grade 1 hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap hurdle

8 of the last 11 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 that season

6 of the last 11 winners had won at the Festival before

Summary;

This is an incredibly intriguing renewal with many questions over pretty much all runners. Can Hurricane Fly really win a Champion Hurdle at 10? Can Jezki or Our Conor reverse the Irish form placings with Hurricane Fly? Will My Tent or Yours make it up the steep Cheltenham hill? Or will The New One have enough pace to win a Champion Hurdle? To me, and I may have egg on my face for saying this, but I do not think that Hurricane fly will win at 10. He hasn't oozed the class this year like normally for me, and I also do not think that the other Irish challengers will improve past him. That leaves me with the British raiders and I am really struggling to split them. I DO think that My Tent or Yours can find for pressure up the Cheltenham hill, and I also believe The New One to be the real deal at 2 miles. The Christmas Hurdle has been an awful trial for this race in recent years, which My Tent or Yours won, but The New One would have undoubtedly beaten him that day, without the final hurdle blunder. Right, ok... for having the course form, I'm with THE NEW ONE. One thing is for sure though, this will be an excellent renewal.

Selection;

The New One - 3-1 @betvictor

OLBG Mares’ Hurdle

Trends;

Irish trained mares have fared well

Novices’ have overperformed so far

Front runners have struggled

Summary;

Cheltenham, then Punchestown... Cheltenham, then Punchestown. This is all that Quevega has been interested in since March 2010, but she has won them all. She has won this race the last 5 years and I want nothing else, but for her to win again. Cockney Sparrow can follow her home. 

Selection;

None - I am just watching this, as I do not bet at such short odds.

Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase

Trends;

Just 1 winning 5/6 year-old since 1989 from 65 runners

9 of the last 12 winners finished first or 2nd last time out

Dismiss runners with less than 3 chase starts

Horses that have tackled open handicaps have fared well

7 of the last 11 winners started at a double-figure price

4 of the last 7 winners ran in a chase at Cheltenham that season

Respect Jonjo O’Neill, Ferdy Murphy and JP McManus’ runners

Paul Nicholls’ runners have struggled so far

The last 3 winners contested a Grade 1 Novices’ Chase earlier in the season

Summary;

Foxrock is a worthy favourite with his form, but surely, as the above trend states, he is too young? For a 4 mile chase around Cheltenham with amateur jockeys, I believe you need a horse than can jump well, and I mean really well. I have been very impressed with SHOTGUN PADDY in that department and is a clear stayer. Ground may be a concern for many, but he has ran well on good to soft before, so I am happy to give him a chance on that. He beat Carruthers and Loch Ba last time out, so that is not bad form at all.

Selection;

Shotgun Paddy - 5-1 @betvictor

Rewards4Racing Novices’ Chase

Trends;

8 of the 9 winners won or finished 2nd last time out

7 of the 9 winners had won no more than once over fences

6 of the 9 winners were running in their first handicap chase

7-year-olds have won 6 of the 9 runnings

4 of the 9 winners ran at last year’s Cheltenham Festival

Only 1 winner won either of first 2 chase starts

Summary;

I am not sure if anyone is still awake to read this, so I will keep it short. This is an incredibly tough race to call. My selection will have to carry the top weight, but Hunt Ball, the winner of this race in 2012, carried heavier... so it can be done. ERICHT is that horse, and I am mainly following the top 2 trends above. 

Selection;
Ericht - 10-1 @betvictor


Best of luck all.

Dudders