RACING - Saturday 24th March

Morning all, I haven't the time to go through reasons today, but the below are who I have backed.


Best of luck all!


Lingfield
14.25 - Crown Dependency (small e/w)
15.25 - Cai Shen e/w


Newbury
14.40 - Kentford Grey Lady, win
15.40 - Mon Parrain, win




Footy bet
Norwich, Reading, Southampton and Tranmere

RACING Saturday 17th March

Anybody else feel the come down from that fantastic festival?? Lets see if we can find some winners today. However, there are only 2 horse racing selections and a footy treble.




14.25 - Ffos Las
Strongly Suggested is on a very nice handicap mark for this race after some creditable runs in novice hurdles.
NAP
11-4 Best price.


15.20 - Uttoxeter
Honourable Arthur is my selection for this tough National. He is an improving chaser who looks in need of this demanding trip. He's off a low weight and I can see him there at the end.
N.B
20-1 Best price.




FOOTY TREBLE
I have gone for Fulham, WBA and Reading in my footy treble this week. It pays roughly 8-1.




Best of luck all!

Cheltenham Day 4

Last day today, and still looking for that 'real' winner. Will it be today? After this week, i'm not so confident... but here goes!

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Key Trends

•             15 of the last 17 winners won last time out.

•             15 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.

•             12 of the last 17 winners (including all of the last 6) started in the first 4 in the betting.

•             The last 5 winners were officially rated 138+ beforehand (last season just 5 of the 17 runners were, four of whom filled the first 4 places).

Summary
Personally, I feel this revolves around the Alan King yard. I have always been a fan of Grumeti, and maybe I should stick to him, but my instincts have not been good this week and I am now going against. Pearl Swan and Baby Mix are also huge dangers. Good race.

Selection(s)
BALDER SUCCES - Been through the form of this horse and its been very impressive, hard to see it out of the top 3. (However, I have said that a few times this week and been wrong!) 8-1 e/w

Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle

Key Trends

•             The last 6 winners were officially rated between 128-135, including the first 4 home last year (only one horse in the top 12 in the weights could finish in the first nine).

•             32 of the last 36 renewals were won by a horse starting at no bigger than 16/1.

•             39 of last 48 winners were aged 5 of 6 (5 year olds have won seven of the last twelve renewals, from approximately 20% of the total runners in that period).

•             Just 4 winners since 1959 were aged older than 7.

•             No winner has carried more than 11st 8Ib for 50 years (only 1 horse has carried more into a place since 1979).

Summary
Another tough handicap for the week. Another stat that is not mentioned above is the Irish form of the race, which is very good.

Selection(s)
CITIZENSHIP - This won really impressively last time out and looks set to run a cracker again today. 8-1 e/w.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Key Trends

•             All 6 winners had run at least 3 times over hurdles.

•             5 of the 6 winners had previously contested a race over 3 miles.

•             5 of the 6 winners had run at Cheltenham before.

•             5 of the 6 winners had won or finished second last time out.

•             16 of the 18 win-and-placed horses finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

Summary
The clear favourite Boston Bob is a worthy favourite on form... but who am I to go against a horse that has one for me 3 times over hurdles?

Selection(s)
BRINDISI BREEZE - You can only be impressed by the way this horse has performed since coming over from pointing. The hill will not faze him as he will stay all day on good ground. 11-1 e/w

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Key Trends

•             The last 10 winners started in the first 3 in the betting, although there have been 10 horses priced 33/1 and bigger placed since 1997.

•             No winner older than 10 since 1969.

•             Only one winner (Cool Dawn) aged 10 in the last 17 renewals and just four ten-year-olds have placed since then from 35 to try, including very many fancied horses.

•             16 of the last 17 winners (and all of the last 11) aged between 7 and 9, during which period 54 horses aged 10+ have run, which included ten horses at 10/1 or less and four outright favourites. (Only three six-year-old's have competed in the race in the last 40 years).

•             9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 166+.

•             9 of the last 10 winners had won or finished second at the Festival before.

•             18 of the last 18 winners have run on or after Boxing Day that season.

•             0 out of the last 18 winners entered the race off the back of just one race earlier in the season).

•             11 of the last 13 winners were placed at the Festival before.

•             11 of the last 12 winners had won a race that season.

•             21 of the last 23 winners finished in the first 4 in their previous race.

•             9 of the last 19 winners were second-season chasers.

•             Horses beaten in the Gold Cup before are 2-67 since 1994. Only See More Business (having won in 1999...and he was "carried out" by a horse pulling up injured in 1998 rather than being beaten on merit) and Kauto Star (second in 2008 and winner 12 months later - but had also won in 2007) have bucked this trend.

Summary
Only 3 horses in this field can win today (in my opinion). Kauto Star obviously is one of them, but he is now too old, even though I would be ecstatic if he won. Burton Port has excellent form at Cheltenham but I feel he will bounce after an excellent come back. That leaves 1 horse.

Selection(s)
LONG RUN - This horse will be 100% spot on for tomorrow and I can only see a Long Run win. Confident. 2-1 WIN

Foxhunter Chase

Key Trends

•             18 of the last 20 winners were aged ten or younger.

•             20 of the last 25 winners won last time out.

•             6 of the last 10 winners have started at 14/1+ (although not the last 2).

Summary
This is actually a really good renewal of this race, 3 of these horses being at the top of their game in Group races just 2-3 years ago. Barbers Shop, Cloudy Lane and Chapoturgeon... I like one of them a lot.

Selection(s)
CHAPOTURGEON - This horse has won at the festival before, so definitely likes this time of year and course... He does have to win over the furthest he has ever raced at, but he was so impressive last time out that he looks like it will be no problem at all. 13-2 e/w

Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle

Key Trends

•             Since 1993 just under 50% (27-55) of Handicap Hurdle winners also won last time out, from just less than 20% overall representation.

Summary
Blimey, not much to go on here for this race. Nicky Henderson has a good strike rate in it though.

Selection(s)
OSCAR NOMINEE - This horse has a good e/w chance with the extra distance expected to help. 12-1 e/w

John Henderson Grand Annual Chase

Key Trends

•             9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 129-134 (and accounted for the 1-2 in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008).

•             6 of the last 9 winners were previous course winners.

•             42 of the last 48 win-and-placed runners were aged under 10.

•             30 of the last 35 renewals were won by horses that started at no bigger then 10/1.

Summary
I personally think this is a close your eyes and point job. Apologies that I cannot give a selection from form/trends etc, as they point to a lot. So I will go with a horse that's a little bit of a favourite of mine and I do think he has the class to win here.

Selection(s)
KID CASSIDY - This horse was very lucky a year a go to survive an electric shock in the paddock at Newbury when 2 horses tragically died. What a story this would be if this horse could win at Cheltenham a year later. Also AP McCoy has not ridden a winner this year, and cannot see any before this race. 10-1 e/w.




Good luck all! Lets hope for a great last days racing and that all horses come home safe.

Cheltenham Day 3

Jewson Novices Chase

Key Trends

•             No stats to go on

Summary

Selection(s)
FOR NON STOP - Hopefully this horse will make amends for his last visit to Cheltenham. Vastly improving, never been out of the first 2 (when finishing) in chases and the fast pace will surely suit. Looks a good e/w bet. 6-1 e/w

Pertemps Final

Key Trends

•             Only 1 winning 5 year-old in 36 runnings of the race.

•             The last 5 winners were aged 7 or older.

•             9 of the last 15 winners won last time out.

•             Just 1 winning favourite in the last 16 runnings.

•             The last 7 winners were sent off at double figure odds

Summary
You could probably select a few in this race, so trying to whittle it down to one is pretty difficult. 

Selection(s)
SONOFVIC - This horse is very interesting back over hurdles where he is unbeaten. He tried his hand at chases but wasn't a natural jumper. Its a horse who I have liked since its debut and I will have a small e/w bet in a race where favourites tend to be beaten. 11-1 e/w.

Ryanair Chase

Key Trends

•             11 of the 12 winners and runner's-up had won at Cheltenham before (including all 6 winners). Last season produced a lower-than-average representation of previous course winners (5 from 13) but they were still responsible for the supplying the 1-2.

•             The last 3 winners contested that season's King George VI Chase.

•             5 of the 6 winners started at less than 6/1.

•             Irish trained horses are 0-16.

Summary
Tough little race here. I have dismissed the Irish trained horses as they have never won this race. I will also dismiss the fave as his form at Cheltenham last time was not good enough. 1 thing I do know is, I will be sick as a parrot if Captain Chris wins, so will see how he reacts in the paddock and going down.

Selection(s)
SOMERSBY - Now that Somersby has got his head in front in a Group 1, I feel that he can go on for his 2nd here. He beat Finians Rainbow last time (some may question FR's ride) but that is still top quality form, and I cannot see him out of the first 3. 13-2 e/w

World Hurdle

Key Trends

•             No 5 year-old has ever won, although plenty have been placed.

•             15 of the 17 winners also ran at the previous seasons Cheltenham Festival.

•             Only one winner older than 9 (Crimson Embers in 1986).

•             No Irish trained winner since 1995.

•             French-breds have won 5 of the last 9 runnings.

•             The last 23 winners finished in the first 4 last time out and 14 of the 16 winners finished in the first 2 last time out.

•             No shock results of late. 8/1 the highest SP in last ten years.

•             6 of the last 7 runnings have seen the 1-2-3 filled by horses in the first five in the betting.

Summary
I have this out of the first 2 in the betting. It would be madness to go against Big Bucks but Nicky Hendersons form at this festival is so good.

Selection(s)       
BIG BUCKS - Seriously, who would go against this horse? No single bet from me, so might see if there are any distance bets for BB to win.
UPDATE - I have backed DYNASTE e/w in the market without Big Bucks at 7-1 with Paddy Power.

Byrne Group Plate

Key Trends

•             21 of the last 23 winners were officially rated no higher than 141 (last year the 1-2-3 emerged from the bottom 7 in the handicap from 24 runners).

•             14 of the last 16 winners carried no more than 11 stone (including the first three horses home in each of the last two years).

•             French-bred horses have won 6 of the last 11 renewals (and been runner-up in 4 of the other 5). In 2009 they accounted for the 1-2-3.

•             Only 1 winning favourite since 1981 (9 of the last favourites finished unplaced and the last 10 winners started at double-figure odds).

•             Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951.

•             Venetia Williams has trained 2 of the last 4 winners (including the first and second in 2009).

•             17 of the last 19 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival before.

•             17 of the last 19 winners finished in the first 4 last time out.

Summary
Only having a small bet in this race as its a minefield.

Selection(s)
FINE PARCHMENT - This horse is a c&d winner, which is always handy at Cheltenham. Big price, small bet. 33-1 e/w

Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Key Trends

•             Only 4 of the last 31 winners were aged 7 or younger (yet the last 3 beaten favourites were aged 6 and 7!)

•             8 and 9 year-olds have won 13 of the last 17 renewals (the last 3 winners have been 9 year-olds).

•             No Irish trained winner for 28 years.

•             Last time out form not necessarily important - 6 of the last 8 winners were unplaced in their last run.

•             The top weight has won the last 2 runnings

Summary
Probably my biggest ever winner on this race last year with Junior as I had him antipost from some info I received. David Pipe likes to win this race so will go for another of his.

Selection(s)
SONA SASTA - Another big price here so another small e/w bet. First time blinkers and the drop in trip will help this horse. 22-1 e/w

Cheltenham Day 2

Good evening everyone! 


Here are my thoughts for Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival. Lets hope its better than day 1.

National Hunt Chase

Key Trends

•             No outright winning favourite since 1992 and 7 of the last 9 winners have been sent off at a double figure price (four of which at 25/1+).

•             25 of the last 27 winners finished in the first 4 last time out and 7 of the last 9 winners (including the last 3) finished in the first 2 last time out.

•             Only one 6 year-old has won since 1989 (from 62 runners) and no successful 5 year-old for 33 years.

•             All seven 140+ rated chasers since 2002 have been beaten.

•             Jonjo O'Neill has won 5 renewals - including 4 of the last 9.

•             Paul Nicholls saddled just 1 placed horse in from 13 starters - of which 9 started in the first 5 in the betting.

Summary
What a tough race to start the day off. I particularly like the double priced winners trend above as my selection is definitely in that bracket. He's an improver and trainer is in form and I would have backed him today if he stayed in the race.
Selection(s)

BLENHEIM BROOK - This is my E/W steal of the festival. Lucinda Russell has hit good form at the right time. 25-1

Neptune Investments Novices Hurdles

Key Trends

•             23 of the last 25 winners started in the first 6 in the betting.

•             Just 1 winner (in 1974) aged older than 6 in the races history (since 1971).

•             26 of the last 27 winners won or came 2nd on their most recent start.

•             Nicky Henderson is 0-21 in this race. Only 2 of his runners since 1990 have finished any higher than tenth!

•             Top-six finishers in the previous season's Festival Bumper have a fine record in the Neptune: 11 have taken their chance in the last 12 runnings of which three have won (French Holly, Monsignor and Fiveforthree) and three more have been placed (Pizarro, Refinement and Rite Of Passage).

Summary
I'm going with the Irish here and have whittled it down to 2 selections. Sous Le Cieux is the danger to my selection.

Selection(s)

MONKSLAND - Some of you may remember he was a NAP for me on his most recent win. He has impressed me and feel an e/w bet at 6-1 is very good.

RSA Chase

Key Trends

•             The last 11 winners had raced at least 3 times over fences.

•             22 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

•             9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7.

•             Just two 6 year olds have won since 1978.

•             The last 47 winners raced during the same calendar year (2011 favourite, Time For Rupert, hadn't raced since 11th Dec).

Summary
All about Grands Crus for me here and going against the trends.

Selection(s)
GRANDS CRUS - This horse is a potential superstar. He was 6-1 in the Gold Cup field before opting for this race (wise choice in my opinion). 6-4 win.

QM Champion Chase

Key Trends

•             10 of the last 12 Arkle Trophy winners were 1st or 2nd in this race the next year and all 12 finished in the first 3.

•             26 of the last 27 winners had won over 2m2f+ or over course and distance.

•             28 of the last 29 winners started at odds of no bigger than 11/1.

•             10 of the last 12 winners started no bigger than 5/1.

•             8 of the last 9 winners were rated 160+ and had previously won a Grade 1 race.

•             Just one winner older than 10 since 1997.

•             8 of the last 10 winners contested the Tingle Creek Chase the same season.

Summary
Again, apologies, but this is all about Sizing Europe. No bet for me, as far too short, so a small e/w on another selection.

Selection(s)
KAUTO STONE - I do not believe we have seen the best of this horse. I also feel he will relish the hill. 16-1 small e/w.

                         

Coral Cup

Key Trends

•             Only 2 favourites have won from the 17 renewals (none of the last 7).

•             No winner officially rated higher than 147.

•             10 of the last 11 winners were aged under eight.

•             6 of the last 8 winners won last time out (including the 1-2-3 in 2009).

Summary
I have this down to 2 David Pipe runners who appear to be ahead of the handicapper and its the more experienced of the 2 that I will be backing.

Selection(s)
POOLE MASTER - This horse was mightily impressive last time out, and although this is his handicap debut, I feel he could make a mockery of his mark of 135. 14-1 e/w.

Fred Winter Novices Hurdle

Key Trends

•             The last five winners won last time out.

•             3 of the last 4 winners had won at Sandown.

•             David Pipe has saddled the winner, two seconds and a third in the last 4 years.

•             Just 6 horses priced at under 10/1 have finished in the first 7 places.

Summary
A tough handicap here with plenty of chances. David Pipe demands respect and Kazlian is a horse I struggle to put people off with. Vendor is a worthy favourite, but 4-1 in a tough handicap is not for me.

Selection(s)
KAPGA DE CERISY - I am absolutely amazed that this horse is the price it is. He fought really well to win last time out and I'm very happy to take a chance. 22-1 e/w

Champion Bumper

Key Trends

•             Last time out winners have won 16 of the 18 runnings.

•             11 of those 18 winners were unbeaten in bumpers (including the last 4).

•             Irish-trained horses have won 14 of the 18 runnings.

•             Willie Mullins has trained the winner 6 times in the last 14 years (5 of which were a once-raced 5 year-old).

•             14 of the 18 winners emerged from the first 6 in the betting.

Summary
I'm not really big on bumper races... so if you want to follow someone with a lot of knowledge on them, then @kingofbumpers in your man.

Selection(s)
NEW YEAR'S EVE - John Ferguson has been a revelation this year and I feel its definitely worth a chance to follow this horse and trainers form. 6-1 e/w.




So there are my thoughts... lets hope they come good tomorrow.


The Rascal

Cheltenham Day 1

Good day to all, and welcome to the greatest 4 days racing in the UK. We start off with an excellent day so let’s hope we find some winners. I have included some key trends for the races below. I believe these are an excellent guide for the handicaps and novice races... they can and do get broken from time to time, but the majority of the time they are spot on.
Apologies if prices are no longer available. This was as of Sunday 11th March.

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Key Trends

•             12 of the last 14 winners won last time out.

•             Only 6 favourites have won in the last 31 runnings and none in the last 6 years.

•             Just 3 of the last 15 horses to start at 3/1 or shorter have won.

•             8 out of the last 12 winners were Irish-trained.

•             10 of the last 11 winners ran in the previous 45 days.

•             8 of the last 19 Supreme winners had just one or two prior runs over hurdles.

•             10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August

Summary

This is a race that it’s best to stick with trends. As you can see from the above, the likely favourite Darlan, is easily opposed, yet his form makes him look a likely winner. I have this race between 3 horses, Montbazon, for Alan King - Tetlami, for Nicky Henderson and at a higher price - Felix Yonger for Willie Mullins (now a NON runner).

Selection(s)

MONTBAZON – This horse fits all the trends, is an improving horse which is key for this race and Alan King had about 3 horses who all could have a very good chance in this race, but he kept only my selection in. E/W at 10-1.

Arkle Challenge Trophy

Key Trends

•             22 of the last 24 winners had finished first or second last time out.

•             Only 2 winning favourites since 1992. 

•             The last 20 winners started at no bigger than 11/1.

•             10 of the last 11 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles.

•             5 of the last 10 winners entered the race as the highest-rated hurdler in the line up.

•             Only 2 winners aged over 7 in the last 19 runnings.

Summary

If anything Cue Card fits the most trends, so could be an e/w shot for anyone as stats do not lie. Personally, I will be going against the trends here as I honestly believe it to be out of the top 2 in the betting – Sprinter Sacre and Al Ferof.

Selection(s)

AL FEROF – This horse will relish the hill at the end of the race just like last year in the Supreme (where he outstayed Sprinter Sacre). Sprinter Sacre is feared though obviously as he has improved leaps and bounds this year. 11-4, WIN.

JLT Speciality Chase

Key Trends

•             Only two winning favourites have won since 1977.

•             Novices have won 3 of the last 7 runnings.

•             8 of the last 10 winners could be found in the first 4 in the betting.

•             The last 11 winners carried less than 11 stone.

•             No winner rated 150+ for 28 years and the last 11 winners were rated no higher than               143 (50% of the 2010 field were rated 144+).

•             Five-year-olds are 1-85 since 1985.

•             Just 3 winners older than eight since 1951.

•             No horse aged 11+ has been placed since 1997 - from 34 runners.

•             6 of the last 8 winners won on their previous outing (in fact in 2010 the 1-2-3 all won last time out, from only 5 of the 24 runners who had - including the 33/1 winner).

Summary

Surprisingly, there are only 2 horses that fit the most trends. No horses in this field fit them all. They are, Blenheim Brook and Golden Chieftain. Luckily for me, I already liked one of them!
UPDATE - Both the above are now non runners. 

Selection(s)

BLENHEIM BROOK – This is my E/W steal of the festival. Lucinda Russell has hit good form at the right time. 25-1
This is now a non runner... my replacement is Our Mick at 6-1

Champion Hurdle

Key Trends

•             23 of the last 27 winners won last time out.

•             Only one five-year-old since 1985 has won.

•             Just 3 winners have been older than eight since 1951.

•             16 of the last 22 winners had won at Cheltenham before (although not the last 2).

•             17 of the last 20 winners started in the first 6 in the betting.

•             Irish trained horses have won 7 of the last 12 runnings.

Summary

Forget the trends; there is only one winner in my opinion.

Selection(s)

HURRICANE FLY – I will not back it to win as the price is too short. But I cannot see anything beating him. Zaidpour may run a big race at a big price (40-1)

Cross Country Chase

Key Trends

•             Enda Bolger has trained the winner of 14 of the 32 cross country races staged at Cheltenham.

•             27 of those 32 were won by horses in the first five in the betting.

•             Horses aged younger than 8 are 1-72 in cross country races at Cheltenham.

•             Irish trained horses have won all six renewals - four were trained by Enda Bolger.

•             British trained horses are 0-50 from a total of 96 runners to date.

•             Nina Carberry has ridden the winner of three of the last four renewals.

Summary

If there is a race at Cheltenham that has ‘minefield’ written all over it, it’s this one. I can only advise everyone to stick to Irish trained horses.

Selection(s)

UNCLE JUNIOR – This isn't a race I’ll be going mad on, but will have a small e/w bet. Uncle Junior has good course and distance form and I will be surprised if he isn’t in the top 3. 9-2.

David Nicholson Hurdle

Key Trends

•             No real trends here as only 4 runnings, Quevega has won 3 of them.

Summary

Like the Champion Hurdle, it’s impossible to back anything against Quevaga... and it’s not at a price I want to back the fave. I’ll just watch this one.

Selection(s)

QUEVAGA – No bet.

Pulteney Land Investments Novices Handicap Chase

Key Trends

•             Note: This year the race will be run on the Old Course over 2 miles, four and a half furlongs and is for horses rated 0-140. Previously it was on the New Course, over two miles five furlongs and there was no upper limit. Thus we are not comparing like-with-like with regards to the following patterns.

•             All six winners won or finished second last time out and such horses have been responsible for the 1-2-3 four times and a 1-2 on another.

•             All six winners had won no more than once over fences, suggesting the handicapper had yet to get the bottom of the horse's true ability.

•             Four of the six winners had fallen earlier in the season.

•             Four of the last five winners ran at last season's Cheltenham Festival (3 in Novice Hurdles).

•             The last five winners were officially rated 131-139 (although this season more lower rates horses will be running than previously, as horses at the top of the handicap will be more likely to head to the new Jewson Novices' Chase.

Summary

This looks an ultra competitive race. Ferdy Murphy has Going Wrong in this... and this trainer is a very good trainer at plotting his horses in these types of races. However, as some of you are already aware, I never back anything this guy trains, and most of the time I do not back in the race either. As an exception though, as its Cheltenham I do have a selection that I will back.

Selection(s)

ACKERTAC – Even though this horse hasn’t won a race yet over fences, he looks very well handicapped in my opinion. Again, it’s not a race to go mad on -betting wise - but this horse has an excellent e/w chance. 12-1

Good luck all. I hope its a profitable day for all, whether you follow my selections or not.

The Rascal.

RACING Saturday 10/03/12

Good morning all. only a few days to go until the biggest week in UK Racing. Hopefully we can find some winners today to bulk up those Cheltenham funds.




15.15 Sandown
I honestly believe that Ted Spread is still very well handicapped. He is the class horse in the race and I believe he will show that today, and give Grumeti a nice boost for next week.
NAP
4-1 Best price.


14.05 Sandown
Carrigmorna King's novice form is excellent. I have him at a higher handicap mark than he is running off here and its a stand out e/w price today.
N.B
7-1 Best price.


16.40 Meydan
I feel there is a chance to take with Dubawi Gold here. His form last year was very good behind the top 3 year olds and 9-1 is good e/w value.
N.N.B
9-1 Best price.




That's all for me today, good luck!

RACING 08/03/12

Unusually I have a blog for today. My attentions are mainly upon Cheltenham for next week but I had a NAG me alert for a horse at Wincanton... which in turn led me to have a look at all the races today.


I have 3 selections today, 2 at Wincanton and 1 from Carlisle.




15.00 Wincanton
Qalinas is running off 2 lbs less than when falling last time out. He has had a break since and definitely looks on a good handicap mark if you look at the horses that beat him last year, most notably Ubi Ace.
7-2 Best price.


16.40 Wincanton
Fran's Folly ran very well on only his 2nd re-appearance and that form has been franked by the winner recently. Should be spot on for today.
7-2 Best price.


14.40 Carlisle
There is not a lot of depth to this race and I feel that Snapping Turtle can improve for his latest hurdling debut, especially as the winner of that race has come out since and won a Group 2 race.
100-30 Best price.




Good luck all.

RACING Saturday 03/03/12

Good morning, and a happy Saturday to all. I have 4 selections for you today on what looks quite a poor days racing. 





15.20 Lingfield
The NAP today runs in this race, and its the Mark Johnson trained Hikma who gets the vote. I normally try to stay away from maidens but MJ's form at the moment is excellent and this horse looks easily up to winning a race like this.
NAP
9-4 Best price.

15.35 Kelso
Ubaltique won a pretty competitive race at Pau on debut... clearly I have no idea what the form is like but he did win well. I was waiting to see if it was going to be backed and its been nibbled. I would advise e/w at 9-2.
N.B
9-2 Best price.




15.10 Newbury
Dave's Dream could spark a revival with the first blinkers on today. We all know that this horse runs best fresh, but this looks a poor Group 3 to me and I do not think it will take much winning. 
N.N.B
11-1 Best price.





14.40 Newbury
Now, this is by no means a tip... its just a horse that is a bit of a fave of mine. Its also my girlfriends birthday today and her surname is 'Bailey'. So the horse in question is Blazing Bailey. I do actually also think this horse is well handicapped.
10-1 Best price.




Good luck all!