Lincoln & Dubai World Cup

I will be previewing the Lincoln and The Dubai World Cup as they are my main bets of today. But I will also give my selections for the Group 1's at Meydan.


15.05 Doncaster - William Hill Lincoln
So after a minor setback last week, the first real day of the flat season is here. Its not the easiest of races to work out but there is a horse that I am very keen on. Brae Hill, last years winner, returns this year on the same handicap mark of 95, so he's got to be on a lot of peoples lists, especially as he runs well when fresh. Jacks Revenge could run a good race at a big price, but I like one of the John Gosden horses. LAHAAG could be on a cracking mark for his seasonal return. He's up 5 lbs for a head loss behind Chapter Seven (who also runs here, and 6lbs higher than that win) but there is reason to believe that there is more scope for improvement from my selection. He's running from stall 6 though, so my advice would be check the results of the Spring Mile to see where the best side is.

9-1 Best price.

18.05 Meydan - Dubai World Cup
Godolphin have an excellent record in this race, and American horses do not. I will have to stick with this, even though the American horses look to have the better form. Of those Godolphin horses, Hunters Light is favourite, and you cannot knock his form at this course at all. The best from the US is sure to be Royal Delta, who is a multiple Group 1 winner, but I will be siding with AFRICAN STORY. As I am writing this, news has just broken that Mickael Barzalona is riding over Fallon, which is a bit of a shame for Fallon, but it doesn't change my opinion. I feel the step up in trip will be perfect.

9-1 Best price.

Meydan Group 1's
15.05 - Shea Shea, 11-8
15.45 - Frederick Engels, 10-1 e/w
16.40 - Sajjhaa, 8-1 e/w
17.20 - St Nicholas Abbey, 7-2

Best of luck all.

The Rascal.

Cheltenham Festival Day 4 - Friday - Gold Cup Day

No winners on Thursday, it can only get better.

JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1
Important Trends;

• Sixteen of the last nineteen winners won the last time out before the festival.
• Just two of the last fifteen winners were rated lower than 80 on the flat.
• Nineteen of the last twenty-two runners had run at least three times over hurdles.
• There have only been seven placed Irish trained horses in the last ten years, from a total of fifty-eight runners, although they've had the second place horse the last two years.

I would be absolutely amazed if the winner of this race didn't come from either Far West, Our Conner or Rolling Star, but as they're the 3 favourites, I suppose that's pretty obvious to point out. However, finding the winner, isn't so. The one who ticks all the trends is Far West, but I will be going against, purely because Paul Nicholls hasn't had the best of weeks. Our Conner is an obvious choice, but that Irish stat is blaring out to me, and I cannot ignore that. So i'm with ROLLING STAR. He has only been seen in the UK over hurdles once, but he was very impressive up the Cheltenham hill on heavy ground. There is reason to believe that he will improve even more so on the better ground, and this Nicky Henderson horse look a real hot prospect.

7-2 Best price.

VINCENT O´BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3

Important Trends;

• Six of the last eight winners were rated between 128 and 135.
• Sixteen of the last nineteen winners had raced at least four times in that season.

This race is a bit of a minefield if i'm honest, so i'll be straight to the point. I like IFANDBUTWHYNOT. This horse is an improving sort, who has a win at Cheltenham on his CV and is 2 from 2 under Timmy Murphy.

11-1 Best price.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES´ HURDLE (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 1

Important Trends;

• All eight winners of this race had run at least three times over hurdles.
• Nineteen of the twenty-one win and placed horses in this race had finished first or second in their last prep race.
• All eight winners were rode handily.
• Six of the last eight winners had previously contested races over three miles.

I think you really would be mad to go against AT FISHERS CROSS in this race who has stamina in abundance. In his last race here at Cheltenham he beat The New One who couldn't have been anymore impressive on Wednesday in the Neptune and I feel this could be AP McCoys first win at the festival this year. There are others in this race that will push him, but with my selections experience at the course and distance, I have to stick with him.

3-1 Best price.

BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1

Important Trends;

• All of the last thirteen winners of the race had previously won a Grade 1 contest.
• Seventeen of the last nineteen winners were aged between seven and nine.
• The last twelve winners started in the top three of the betting.
• Eleven of the last twelve winners were rated at 166 or higher.
• Thirteen of the last fourteen winners had won earlier in the season.

Well, here it is... the big one of the week, and what a race we have in prospect. I simply cannot get away from BOBS WORTH and its by far my best bet of the day. Of course, I cannot easily cast aside Long Run, who has won this race before and has won 2 King Georges or Sir Des Champs, who won the Jewson last year and is sure to stay. But, you have to say that Bobs Worth is a worthy favourite. He is 4 from 4 at the track, has improved on his jumping and with Barry Geraghty on his back should be in front at the winning post. It would be rude to not mention Silviniaco Conti, who is 3 wins from 3 races this year, but like I said before, Nicholls hasn't had the best of weeks and I believe he'd be better on a flatter track.

11-4 Best price.

CGA FOXHUNTER CHASE CHALLENGE CUP

Important Trends;

• Twenty of the last twenty-two winners were aged ten or younger.
• Twenty-two of the last twenty-seven winners won on their last appearance before the festival.

We may well see the same two horses as last year fighting out the finish here, however, I fancy CHAPOTURGEON to reverse the placings with Salisify. 

9-2 Best price.

MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS´ HANDICAP HURDLE

Important Trends;

• All 4 winners rated 133-139
• All 4 winners ran no more than 4 times that season
• 5 & 6 year olds dominated, accounting for all four wins and 6 places
• Jockeys with allowances claimed 12 of the 16 places & 3 from 4 wins

Its probably best to take those trends with a pinch of salt, considering there has only been 4 runnings of this race. I really like the form of MA FILLEULE's last win. The 2nd and 3rd that day ran really well behind Quevega earlier in the week, and Nicky Henderson has already won this race before. I also think she is running off a very nice weight.

11-1 Best price.

JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (Handicap) Grade 3

Important Trends;

• The last thirteen out of fourteen winners have raced no more than twelve times over fences.
• Thirty of the last thirty-seven winners of the race were priced under 10/1.

A tough race to finish the meeting, 24 runners in a handicap over fences... sounds easy right? The 3 form horses coming into the race are Ulck Du Lin, Rody and Alderwood. Out of the 3, Alderwood certainly looks the better handicapped, but i'll be siding with a horse right near the bottom on the weights. ANQUETTA has run in this race the past two years running relatively well and he should be much more fresher this year. Its also a race that Nicky Henderson likes to win, for obvious reasons.

16-1 Best price.

Best of luck, The Rascal.

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3 - Thursday

Another winner today/yesterday in Lord Windermere, which was handy to be honest, as that was the only one (backed). We'll change that here though.


JEWSON NOVICES´ CHASE (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2
Important Trends;

• There isn't any really, other than the fact that the Irish have won both runnings

If i'm honest, even though that trend doesn't mean much, i'm going to stick with it. I have the utmost respect for Dynaste, but the form of AUPCHARLIE has been backed up this festival, whereas maybe Dynaste's hasn't. Obviously a bit of cut would be preferable, but his action appears to me that he will handle this ground fine. The drop in trip will suit perfectly and of course, Willies Mullins can do no wrong at the moment.

6-1 Best price.

PERTEMPS FINAL (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race)

Important Trend;

• Nine of the last seventeen winners won last time out.

Easily the toughest race to work out today. The trend doesn't really help and there are 24 runners. So where to look? Well, I'll be having a small bet on CAPTAIN SUNSHINE. I have always felt that 3 miles at Cheltenham is spot on and perfect for this horse. He's become a bit of a cliff horse for me, but I will be giving him one last chance. Its a minefield race, so I have to stick to my guns on this one.

20-1 Best price.

RYANAIR CHASE (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) Grade 1

Important Trends;

• All bar one of the eight winners of this race had a previous win at the Cheltenham track to their name.
• Ireland have yet to win this race.
• All but one of the eight of top rated horses have been beaten, Riverside Theatre was top rated at 168 in 2012.

I am very much looking forward to this race, not only because the field is mouthwatering, but also, my best bet of the day runs in it. CHAMPION COURT looks spot on for this race. He has great course form, he ran well in the Jewson last year, and looks set to make a big impression this year.

15-2 Best price.

LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1

Important Trends;

• No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.
• There hasn't been an Irish trained winner in this race for eighteen years.
• The last twenty-five winners all finished in the first four in their last prep race before the festival.
• Only one front runner has held on for a place since 1996.

I'm sure i'm not alone in feeling sad that Big Bucks isn't here to make history. There is no doubt in my mind that he would have won this if fully fit. However, he's not here and for the first time in 4 years, this is hugely competitive. A lot will revolve around whether Peddlars Cross holds any of his old ability. When in his prime, he went unbeaten in 7 races over hurdles, won at the festival in the Neptune (beating Reve De Sivola) and then pushed Hurricane Fly all the way to the line when I believe, Hurricane Fly was at his best. However, in that same year he was put well and truly in his place by OSCAR WHISKY at Aintree. Anyone who thought that Oscar Whiskey wouldn't stay 3 miles were proven wrong last time out on heavy ground, and with the better ground here I am sure he can reverse the placings with Reve De Sivola.

7-2 Best price.

BYRNE GROUP PLATE (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3

Important Trends;

• Twenty-three of the last twenty-five winners were officially rated no higher than 141.
• There has been only one Irish trained winner in this race since 1951.
• Eighteen of the last twenty-one winners finished in the top four last time out.

I will absolutely kick myself if wrong here, as going against a rule that I normally stick by. That is "Do not back any Ferdy Murphy horses". However. The reasons why I don't back them, could work in my favour in this race. We all know that he is a bit of a genius / swindler, whatever you like to call it, when it comes to handicap races at the festival, and my selection has even won one before in a novice event. DIVERS ran in this same race last year off 7 lbs lower and arguably, he was unlucky in that race. He also fits the trends, and for those reasons I will be backing him.

18-1 Best price.

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE (Amateur Riders)

Important Trends;

• There has not been an Irish trained winner of the race for twenty-eight years.
• Only four of the last thirty-three winners were aged seven or younger.
• Top weight has won two of the last four runnings.

David Pipe is a trainer to watch for this race, as its one he focuses on. He has 3 runners here and I actually like them all, so if there was a market for a Pipe winner here, i'd back it. However, I haven't found one, so will whittle them down. Swing Bowler is a horse I like a lot, and actually backed/tipped him on his last win here. But I do not think this is a horse that can carry a heavy weight, and he doesn't look well handicapped to me. Problema Tic looks to have a better chance back on better ground, but i'm not a big fan of his jumping, and I feel that could really let him down today. So that leaves me with NO SECRETS. He has good novice hurdle form and has really come to light over fences since the application of the tongue tie. He's riding off a featherweight and has a good amateur jockey on board, who has won at the festival before, back in 2010. He looks a very typical Pipe horse for this race.

14-1 Best price.

GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A Cross Country Chase)

Important Trends;

• The last twenty-three winners of the race had all contested cross country races before.
• The trends suggest that the handicap is not an issue, Garde Champetre and Spot The Difference both recent top weight winners.
• Irish trainer Enda Bolger is a cross country specialist and has won fourteen of the 32 cross country races run at Cheltenham before. He has also saddled four of the last eight winners of this race.
• British trained runners have a dreadful record in the race, currently 1 from 65 runners, although Balthazar King bucked that trend in 2012 winning for Phillip Hobbs.

In my opinion this is between, Uncle Junior, Outlaw Pete and ARABELLA BOY. I know that the top weights can run well in this race, but I do feel 11-12 will be too tough for Uncle Junior. It'll be close between the other 2 though and I'll be siding with Arabella Boy, who is trained by Edna and has more of a progressive profile in my opinion.

9-2 Best price.

Best of luck all,

The Rascal

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

Not a bad start today/yesterday, depending on when you;re reading this... 3 selections won, but I only backed Champagne Fever out of those.

Anyway onto Day 2..


JOHN OAKSEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase )
Important Trends;

• There has only been one winning five or six year old in the race since 1989.
• Twenty-six of the last twenty-nine winners had finished in the top four in their last prep run.

Tricky start to the day here and all eyes will bound to be on Back In Focus, and rightly so given his form over in Ireland. But there are others here that make his price just a little too short. I like ROSE OF THE MOON. This horse has bags of stamina and is versatile with regards to the ground, but a little bit of cut will be preferable. I am also very happy with the jockey on board.

16-1 Best price.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES´ HURDLE (Registered Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1

Important Trends;

• Twenty-three of the last twenty-six winners have had at least three runs over the hurdles.
• Twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine winners finished in the top two on their most recent start before the festival.
• Bumper horses have a much better record than ex-flat horses
• Twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine winners finished in the top two on their most recent start before the festival.
• There has only been one winner aged over six in the last 39 years.

There are no secrets at all with regards to what Mullins and Ruby feel about PONT ALEXANDRE and normally I would not buy into the hype, but this horse has the form to back it up. Along with the fact that the Mullins/Ruby combination had an excellent start to the festival, I am struggling to find a reason not to back him. Chatterbox is quite a big price for an unbeaten horse, but the potential of the selection is huge.

6-4 Best price.

RSA CHASE (Grade 1)

Important Trends;

• The last thirteen winners have all raced at least three times over the timber.
• Only two six-year-olds have won the RSA Chase since 1978.
• There has not been a winner over the age of eight since 1992.
• The last 49 winners all raced during the same calendar year.
• Twenty-four of the last twenty-five winners either won or finished second on their last run before the festival.

There is no doubt in my mind that Boston Bob and Unioniste will have plenty of supporters here. However, a couple of the trends above are too strong to ignore and I am looking at LORD WINDERMERE. Even though his pedigree doesn't scream out 3 miles, his racing style and form does. I think he's worth an e/w chance here.

10-1 Best price.

 

SPORTINGBET QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1

Important Trends;

• The last thirteen Arkle Trophy winners to run in this race the following year have all placed at worst, Finian's Rainbow was second in the Arkle the year before.

The racingpost says "The awesome SPRINTER SACRE may not be backable for most punters but he is also unopposable. Stand by to applaud one of the greats" and I have to say, this is exactly how I feel. No bet for me, but Sprinter Sacre, with a clean round, will not lose.

No Bet

CORAL CUP (A Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 

Important Trends;

• There has never been a winner rated higher than 147.
• Six of the last ten winners in this race were winners in their last race before the festival.

A very tough race, probably the toughest all week. But nonetheless, I am rather keen on PENDRA. He finished 4 and a half lengths behind a 150 rated horse, and Pendra is running off 139 here. He could be thrown in considering that last race possibly wasn't run to suit and the trainer had a couple of winners the other day. Also, we have AP McCoy on board, which in these big fields and at the festival, can never be a bad thing.

8-1 Best price.

FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3

Important Trends;

• Five of the eight winners have run exactly three times to acquire a handicap mark.
• Seven of the last eight winners of this race were beaten on their first two starts over hurdles.
• Fillies have won four of the eight runnings.

A tentative vote, accompanied by a small bet will go towards SAPHIR DU RHEU. He has the scope for more improvement and the race should run to suit.

7-1 Best price.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 1

Important Trends;

• Irish trained horses dominate this race with fifteen winners from the twenty runnings.
• Eighteen of the twenty winners had won on their last race out before the festival.
• French bred horses are three from twenty-seven chances to place.

My idea of the winner here is one of the Mullins horses in UNION DUES. He has impressed me with both of his wins. The form of both races look pretty decent, he goes well fresh and of course, the trainer has an excellent record in the race.

8-1 Best price.

Best of luck to all.

The Rascal

Cheltenham Festival Day 1

Well, here we are. The 2013 Cheltenham Festival.

It can be a tough place to make money, so best of luck to all of you and please just enjoy it for what it is... an amazing sport.


WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1
Important Trends:

• Fourteen of the last sixteen winners won on their last appearance before the Cheltenham Festival.
• Only three of the last sixteen horses to start at odds of 3/1 or shorter have won.

Ok, so I spent hours on Sunday night going through this race and came to the conclusion of Rock Critic and Melodic Rendezvous  As they are now both non runners I have had to look elsewhere, so sadly, I am not as confident in this race as before. My Tent or Yours is clearly a very good horse. I cannot be backing him though as the price is far too short, and his form is rather muddling. Jezki has the beating of my selection on a specific piece of form, but I worry that he's been off a bit too long, and was not at his best when fresh last October. So I'm siding with CHAMPAGNE FEVER. The smaller, more tactical field is sure to help and the drop back to 2 miles is spot on.

7-1 Best price.
WINNER


RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1
Important Trends:

• Twelve out of the last thirteen winners had a rating of 142 and over and five of these were the highest rated hurdler in the race.
• Only three favourites in the last 21 runnings of the Arkle have won the race.
• 24 of the last 26 winners finished either first or second in the last race before the festival.

I have tried very hard, believe me, to get away from the top two in the market, but its impossible. I would be very very surprised if the winner didn't come from either Simonsig or Overturn. Due to the soft ground I've sided with SIMONSIG. But its a no bet race for me. Which is a shame as its probably my favourite of the whole week :-(

NO BET

JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3

Important Trends:

• The last twelve out of thirteen winners carried less than eleven stone to victory.
• There has not been a winner rated higher than 150 for thirty years.
• Horses aged eleven or over have failed to place in the last fourteen runnings

He will have a tough time with an extra 12lbs on his back, but the way LOCH BA won for me last time out left me feeling he still clearly had a lot left in the tank. He has come back this winter in superb form winning 2 of his last 3 races and I feel he can definitely make his presence felt in this company. If he jumps as well as last time, then I cannot see him out of the places.

12-1 Best price.
Unseated

STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1

Important Trends:

• Katchit was the only five-year-old to win in twenty-six years.
• Twenty-four of the last twenty-eight winners were winners of their last prep run.
• There have only been three winners over the age of eight since 1951.

For me, with those trends supporting his excellent form, I cannot back anything else other than ZARKANDAR in this. He'll be my best bet for day 1 and I am excited about viewing this race. 

7-2 Best price. (as of Sunday evening)
4th

GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A Cross Country Chase)

Important Trends:

• The last twenty-three winners of the race had all contested cross country races before.
• The trends suggest that the handicap is not an issue, Garde Champetre and Spot The Difference both recent top weight winners.
• Irish trainer Enda Bolger is a cross country specialist and has won fourteen of the 32 cross country races run at Cheltenham before. He has also saddled four of the last eight winners of this race.
• British trained runners have a dreadful record in the race, currently 1 from 65 runners, although Balthazar King bucked that trend in 2012 winning for Phillip Hobbs.

In my opinion this is between, Uncle Junior, Outlaw Pete and ARABELLA BOY. I know that the top weights can run well in this race, but I do feel 11-12 will be too tough for Uncle Junior. It'll be close between the other 2 though and I'll be siding with Arabella Boy, who is trained by Edna and has more of a progressive profile in my opinion.

5-1 Best price. (as of Sunday evening)
Abandoned


OLBG MARES´ HURDLE (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle) Grade 2
Important Trends:

• Quevega has won the last four years!

Personally, I think that's all you need to know. QUEVEGA is by far the best horse in the race. I want her to win, I think she will win so I will be having no bet in this race. I suppose Swing Bowler is one to look out for. However, I do not think she'll be anywhere near as good as Quevega.

NO BET
Winner

REWARDS4RACING NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE (Listed Race)

Important Trends:

• All eight of the winners either won or finished second in their last race before Cheltenham.
• Six out of the eight winners had previously won over two miles and four furlongs.

This is the toughest race of the day. We have plenty of horses who could all make a name for themselves in this race and the trends above do not really whittle them down in any way. I have this between The Druids Nephew, Howards Legacy and Arthur's Pass. I'll be siding with the highly progressive ARTHUR'S PASS. He has impressed me in his last 3 wins, and although he is flying up the weights, I think he can run a huge race as he hasn't even broken sweat, or made mistakes in his last few races.

18-1 Best price.
Unplaced


Best of luck all. I'm sure most will need it (including me!).

The Rascal