JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1
Important Trends;
- Sixteen of the last nineteen winners won the last time out before the festival.
- Just two of the last fifteen winners were rated lower than 80 on the flat.
- Nineteen of the last twenty-two runners had run at least three times over hurdles.
- There have only been seven placed Irish trained horses in the last ten years, from a total of fifty-eight runners, although they've had the second place horse the last two years.
I would be absolutely amazed if the winner of this race didn't come from either Far West, Our Conner or Rolling Star, but as they're the 3 favourites, I suppose that's pretty obvious to point out. However, finding the winner, isn't so. The one who ticks all the trends is Far West, but I will be going against, purely because Paul Nicholls hasn't had the best of weeks. Our Conner is an obvious choice, but that Irish stat is blaring out to me, and I cannot ignore that. So i'm with ROLLING STAR. He has only been seen in the UK over hurdles once, but he was very impressive up the Cheltenham hill on heavy ground. There is reason to believe that he will improve even more so on the better ground, and this Nicky Henderson horse look a real hot prospect.
7-2 Best price.
VINCENT O´BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3
Important Trends;
- Six of the last eight winners were rated between 128 and 135.
- Sixteen of the last nineteen winners had raced at least four times in that season.
This race is a bit of a minefield if i'm honest, so i'll be straight to the point. I like IFANDBUTWHYNOT. This horse is an improving sort, who has a win at Cheltenham on his CV and is 2 from 2 under Timmy Murphy.
11-1 Best price.
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES´ HURDLE (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 1
Important Trends;
- All eight winners of this race had run at least three times over hurdles.
- Nineteen of the twenty-one win and placed horses in this race had finished first or second in their last prep race.
- All eight winners were rode handily.
- Six of the last eight winners had previously contested races over three miles.
I think you really would be mad to go against AT FISHERS CROSS in this race who has stamina in abundance. In his last race here at Cheltenham he beat The New One who couldn't have been anymore impressive on Wednesday in the Neptune and I feel this could be AP McCoys first win at the festival this year. There are others in this race that will push him, but with my selections experience at the course and distance, I have to stick with him.
3-1 Best price.
BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1
Important Trends;
- All of the last thirteen winners of the race had previously won a Grade 1 contest.
- Seventeen of the last nineteen winners were aged between seven and nine.
- The last twelve winners started in the top three of the betting.
- Eleven of the last twelve winners were rated at 166 or higher.
- Thirteen of the last fourteen winners had won earlier in the season.
Well, here it is... the big one of the week, and what a race we have in prospect. I simply cannot get away from BOBS WORTH and its by far my best bet of the day. Of course, I cannot easily cast aside Long Run, who has won this race before and has won 2 King Georges or Sir Des Champs, who won the Jewson last year and is sure to stay. But, you have to say that Bobs Worth is a worthy favourite. He is 4 from 4 at the track, has improved on his jumping and with Barry Geraghty on his back should be in front at the winning post. It would be rude to not mention Silviniaco Conti, who is 3 wins from 3 races this year, but like I said before, Nicholls hasn't had the best of weeks and I believe he'd be better on a flatter track.
11-4 Best price.
CGA FOXHUNTER CHASE CHALLENGE CUP
Important Trends;
- Twenty of the last twenty-two winners were aged ten or younger.
- Twenty-two of the last twenty-seven winners won on their last appearance before the festival.
We may well see the same two horses as last year fighting out the finish here, however, I fancy CHAPOTURGEON to reverse the placings with Salisify.
9-2 Best price.
MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS´ HANDICAP HURDLE
Important Trends;
- All 4 winners rated 133-139
- All 4 winners ran no more than 4 times that season
- 5 & 6 year olds dominated, accounting for all four wins and 6 places
- Jockeys with allowances claimed 12 of the 16 places & 3 from 4 wins
Its probably best to take those trends with a pinch of salt, considering there has only been 4 runnings of this race. I really like the form of MA FILLEULE's last win. The 2nd and 3rd that day ran really well behind Quevega earlier in the week, and Nicky Henderson has already won this race before. I also think she is running off a very nice weight.
11-1 Best price.
JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (Handicap) Grade 3
Important Trends;
- The last thirteen out of fourteen winners have raced no more than twelve times over fences.
- Thirty of the last thirty-seven winners of the race were priced under 10/1.
A tough race to finish the meeting, 24 runners in a handicap over fences... sounds easy right? The 3 form horses coming into the race are Ulck Du Lin, Rody and Alderwood. Out of the 3, Alderwood certainly looks the better handicapped, but i'll be siding with a horse right near the bottom on the weights. ANQUETTA has run in this race the past two years running relatively well and he should be much more fresher this year. Its also a race that Nicky Henderson likes to win, for obvious reasons.
16-1 Best price.
Best of luck, The Rascal.
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