JEWSON NOVICES´ CHASE (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2
Important Trends;
- There isn't any really, other than the fact that the Irish have won both runnings
If i'm honest, even though that trend doesn't mean much, i'm going to stick with it. I have the utmost respect for Dynaste, but the form of AUPCHARLIE has been backed up this festival, whereas maybe Dynaste's hasn't. Obviously a bit of cut would be preferable, but his action appears to me that he will handle this ground fine. The drop in trip will suit perfectly and of course, Willies Mullins can do no wrong at the moment.
6-1 Best price.
PERTEMPS FINAL (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race)
Important Trend;
- Nine of the last seventeen winners won last time out.
Easily the toughest race to work out today. The trend doesn't really help and there are 24 runners. So where to look? Well, I'll be having a small bet on CAPTAIN SUNSHINE. I have always felt that 3 miles at Cheltenham is spot on and perfect for this horse. He's become a bit of a cliff horse for me, but I will be giving him one last chance. Its a minefield race, so I have to stick to my guns on this one.
20-1 Best price.
RYANAIR CHASE (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) Grade 1
Important Trends;
- All bar one of the eight winners of this race had a previous win at the Cheltenham track to their name.
- Ireland have yet to win this race.
- All but one of the eight of top rated horses have been beaten, Riverside Theatre was top rated at 168 in 2012.
I am very much looking forward to this race, not only because the field is mouthwatering, but also, my best bet of the day runs in it. CHAMPION COURT looks spot on for this race. He has great course form, he ran well in the Jewson last year, and looks set to make a big impression this year.
15-2 Best price.
LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1
Important Trends;
- No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.
- There hasn't been an Irish trained winner in this race for eighteen years.
- The last twenty-five winners all finished in the first four in their last prep race before the festival.
- Only one front runner has held on for a place since 1996.
I'm sure i'm not alone in feeling sad that Big Bucks isn't here to make history. There is no doubt in my mind that he would have won this if fully fit. However, he's not here and for the first time in 4 years, this is hugely competitive. A lot will revolve around whether Peddlars Cross holds any of his old ability. When in his prime, he went unbeaten in 7 races over hurdles, won at the festival in the Neptune (beating Reve De Sivola) and then pushed Hurricane Fly all the way to the line when I believe, Hurricane Fly was at his best. However, in that same year he was put well and truly in his place by OSCAR WHISKY at Aintree. Anyone who thought that Oscar Whiskey wouldn't stay 3 miles were proven wrong last time out on heavy ground, and with the better ground here I am sure he can reverse the placings with Reve De Sivola.
7-2 Best price.
BYRNE GROUP PLATE (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3
Important Trends;
- Twenty-three of the last twenty-five winners were officially rated no higher than 141.
- There has been only one Irish trained winner in this race since 1951.
- Eighteen of the last twenty-one winners finished in the top four last time out.
I will absolutely kick myself if wrong here, as going against a rule that I normally stick by. That is "Do not back any Ferdy Murphy horses". However. The reasons why I don't back them, could work in my favour in this race. We all know that he is a bit of a genius / swindler, whatever you like to call it, when it comes to handicap races at the festival, and my selection has even won one before in a novice event. DIVERS ran in this same race last year off 7 lbs lower and arguably, he was unlucky in that race. He also fits the trends, and for those reasons I will be backing him.
18-1 Best price.
FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE (Amateur Riders)
Important Trends;
- There has not been an Irish trained winner of the race for twenty-eight years.
- Only four of the last thirty-three winners were aged seven or younger.
- Top weight has won two of the last four runnings.
David Pipe is a trainer to watch for this race, as its one he focuses on. He has 3 runners here and I actually like them all, so if there was a market for a Pipe winner here, i'd back it. However, I haven't found one, so will whittle them down. Swing Bowler is a horse I like a lot, and actually backed/tipped him on his last win here. But I do not think this is a horse that can carry a heavy weight, and he doesn't look well handicapped to me. Problema Tic looks to have a better chance back on better ground, but i'm not a big fan of his jumping, and I feel that could really let him down today. So that leaves me with NO SECRETS. He has good novice hurdle form and has really come to light over fences since the application of the tongue tie. He's riding off a featherweight and has a good amateur jockey on board, who has won at the festival before, back in 2010. He looks a very typical Pipe horse for this race.
14-1 Best price.
GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A Cross Country Chase)
Important Trends;
- The last twenty-three winners of the race had all contested cross country races before.
- The trends suggest that the handicap is not an issue, Garde Champetre and Spot The Difference both recent top weight winners.
- Irish trainer Enda Bolger is a cross country specialist and has won fourteen of the 32 cross country races run at Cheltenham before. He has also saddled four of the last eight winners of this race.
- British trained runners have a dreadful record in the race, currently 1 from 65 runners, although Balthazar King bucked that trend in 2012 winning for Phillip Hobbs.
In my opinion this is between, Uncle Junior, Outlaw Pete and ARABELLA BOY. I know that the top weights can run well in this race, but I do feel 11-12 will be too tough for Uncle Junior. It'll be close between the other 2 though and I'll be siding with Arabella Boy, who is trained by Edna and has more of a progressive profile in my opinion.
9-2 Best price.
Best of luck all,
The Rascal
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