Cheltenham Festival Day 1

Well, here we are. The 2013 Cheltenham Festival.

It can be a tough place to make money, so best of luck to all of you and please just enjoy it for what it is... an amazing sport.


WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1
Important Trends:

• Fourteen of the last sixteen winners won on their last appearance before the Cheltenham Festival.
• Only three of the last sixteen horses to start at odds of 3/1 or shorter have won.

Ok, so I spent hours on Sunday night going through this race and came to the conclusion of Rock Critic and Melodic Rendezvous  As they are now both non runners I have had to look elsewhere, so sadly, I am not as confident in this race as before. My Tent or Yours is clearly a very good horse. I cannot be backing him though as the price is far too short, and his form is rather muddling. Jezki has the beating of my selection on a specific piece of form, but I worry that he's been off a bit too long, and was not at his best when fresh last October. So I'm siding with CHAMPAGNE FEVER. The smaller, more tactical field is sure to help and the drop back to 2 miles is spot on.

7-1 Best price.
WINNER


RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1
Important Trends:

• Twelve out of the last thirteen winners had a rating of 142 and over and five of these were the highest rated hurdler in the race.
• Only three favourites in the last 21 runnings of the Arkle have won the race.
• 24 of the last 26 winners finished either first or second in the last race before the festival.

I have tried very hard, believe me, to get away from the top two in the market, but its impossible. I would be very very surprised if the winner didn't come from either Simonsig or Overturn. Due to the soft ground I've sided with SIMONSIG. But its a no bet race for me. Which is a shame as its probably my favourite of the whole week :-(

NO BET

JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3

Important Trends:

• The last twelve out of thirteen winners carried less than eleven stone to victory.
• There has not been a winner rated higher than 150 for thirty years.
• Horses aged eleven or over have failed to place in the last fourteen runnings

He will have a tough time with an extra 12lbs on his back, but the way LOCH BA won for me last time out left me feeling he still clearly had a lot left in the tank. He has come back this winter in superb form winning 2 of his last 3 races and I feel he can definitely make his presence felt in this company. If he jumps as well as last time, then I cannot see him out of the places.

12-1 Best price.
Unseated

STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1

Important Trends:

• Katchit was the only five-year-old to win in twenty-six years.
• Twenty-four of the last twenty-eight winners were winners of their last prep run.
• There have only been three winners over the age of eight since 1951.

For me, with those trends supporting his excellent form, I cannot back anything else other than ZARKANDAR in this. He'll be my best bet for day 1 and I am excited about viewing this race. 

7-2 Best price. (as of Sunday evening)
4th

GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A Cross Country Chase)

Important Trends:

• The last twenty-three winners of the race had all contested cross country races before.
• The trends suggest that the handicap is not an issue, Garde Champetre and Spot The Difference both recent top weight winners.
• Irish trainer Enda Bolger is a cross country specialist and has won fourteen of the 32 cross country races run at Cheltenham before. He has also saddled four of the last eight winners of this race.
• British trained runners have a dreadful record in the race, currently 1 from 65 runners, although Balthazar King bucked that trend in 2012 winning for Phillip Hobbs.

In my opinion this is between, Uncle Junior, Outlaw Pete and ARABELLA BOY. I know that the top weights can run well in this race, but I do feel 11-12 will be too tough for Uncle Junior. It'll be close between the other 2 though and I'll be siding with Arabella Boy, who is trained by Edna and has more of a progressive profile in my opinion.

5-1 Best price. (as of Sunday evening)
Abandoned


OLBG MARES´ HURDLE (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle) Grade 2
Important Trends:

• Quevega has won the last four years!

Personally, I think that's all you need to know. QUEVEGA is by far the best horse in the race. I want her to win, I think she will win so I will be having no bet in this race. I suppose Swing Bowler is one to look out for. However, I do not think she'll be anywhere near as good as Quevega.

NO BET
Winner

REWARDS4RACING NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE (Listed Race)

Important Trends:

• All eight of the winners either won or finished second in their last race before Cheltenham.
• Six out of the eight winners had previously won over two miles and four furlongs.

This is the toughest race of the day. We have plenty of horses who could all make a name for themselves in this race and the trends above do not really whittle them down in any way. I have this between The Druids Nephew, Howards Legacy and Arthur's Pass. I'll be siding with the highly progressive ARTHUR'S PASS. He has impressed me in his last 3 wins, and although he is flying up the weights, I think he can run a huge race as he hasn't even broken sweat, or made mistakes in his last few races.

18-1 Best price.
Unplaced


Best of luck all. I'm sure most will need it (including me!).

The Rascal