Anyway onto Day 2..
JOHN OAKSEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase )
Important Trends;
- There has only been one winning five or six year old in the race since 1989.
- Twenty-six of the last twenty-nine winners had finished in the top four in their last prep run.
Tricky start to the day here and all eyes will bound to be on Back In Focus, and rightly so given his form over in Ireland. But there are others here that make his price just a little too short. I like ROSE OF THE MOON. This horse has bags of stamina and is versatile with regards to the ground, but a little bit of cut will be preferable. I am also very happy with the jockey on board.
16-1 Best price.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES´ HURDLE (Registered Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1
Important Trends;
- Twenty-three of the last twenty-six winners have had at least three runs over the hurdles.
- Twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine winners finished in the top two on their most recent start before the festival.
- Bumper horses have a much better record than ex-flat horses
- Twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine winners finished in the top two on their most recent start before the festival.
- There has only been one winner aged over six in the last 39 years.
There are no secrets at all with regards to what Mullins and Ruby feel about PONT ALEXANDRE and normally I would not buy into the hype, but this horse has the form to back it up. Along with the fact that the Mullins/Ruby combination had an excellent start to the festival, I am struggling to find a reason not to back him. Chatterbox is quite a big price for an unbeaten horse, but the potential of the selection is huge.
6-4 Best price.
RSA CHASE (Grade 1)
Important Trends;
- The last thirteen winners have all raced at least three times over the timber.
- Only two six-year-olds have won the RSA Chase since 1978.
- There has not been a winner over the age of eight since 1992.
- The last 49 winners all raced during the same calendar year.
- Twenty-four of the last twenty-five winners either won or finished second on their last run before the festival.
There is no doubt in my mind that Boston Bob and Unioniste will have plenty of supporters here. However, a couple of the trends above are too strong to ignore and I am looking at LORD WINDERMERE. Even though his pedigree doesn't scream out 3 miles, his racing style and form does. I think he's worth an e/w chance here.
10-1 Best price.
SPORTINGBET QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1
Important Trends;
- The last thirteen Arkle Trophy winners to run in this race the following year have all placed at worst, Finian's Rainbow was second in the Arkle the year before.
The racingpost says "The awesome SPRINTER SACRE may not be backable for most punters but he is also unopposable. Stand by to applaud one of the greats" and I have to say, this is exactly how I feel. No bet for me, but Sprinter Sacre, with a clean round, will not lose.
No Bet
CORAL CUP (A Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3
Important Trends;
- There has never been a winner rated higher than 147.
- Six of the last ten winners in this race were winners in their last race before the festival.
A very tough race, probably the toughest all week. But nonetheless, I am rather keen on PENDRA. He finished 4 and a half lengths behind a 150 rated horse, and Pendra is running off 139 here. He could be thrown in considering that last race possibly wasn't run to suit and the trainer had a couple of winners the other day. Also, we have AP McCoy on board, which in these big fields and at the festival, can never be a bad thing.
8-1 Best price.
FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3
Important Trends;
- Five of the eight winners have run exactly three times to acquire a handicap mark.
- Seven of the last eight winners of this race were beaten on their first two starts over hurdles.
- Fillies have won four of the eight runnings.
A tentative vote, accompanied by a small bet will go towards SAPHIR DU RHEU. He has the scope for more improvement and the race should run to suit.
7-1 Best price.
WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 1
Important Trends;
- Irish trained horses dominate this race with fifteen winners from the twenty runnings.
- Eighteen of the twenty winners had won on their last race out before the festival.
- French bred horses are three from twenty-seven chances to place.
My idea of the winner here is one of the Mullins horses in UNION DUES. He has impressed me with both of his wins. The form of both races look pretty decent, he goes well fresh and of course, the trainer has an excellent record in the race.
8-1 Best price.
Best of luck to all.
The Rascal
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