Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup Day

I felt the need to write a blog today because I have a strong feeling for a horse in the main race today. By saying that I've probably jinxed the hell out of it, but hey ho... still feeling confident.

14.30 Cheltenham - Paddy Power Gold Cup
As I write this, all 20 runners are still standing, so this is looking like an excellent renewal. You have the class horses in Finians Rainbow and Champion Court... and the promising 2nd season chasers in Rajdhani Express and Johns Spirit all lining up. However, its none of those that I have my eye on. The horse in question has a 100% record when first time out, good course form and is well weighted (in my opinion) as he was 3rd last year off 5lbs heavier. I am of course talking about Nadiya De La Vega. For those of you that followed 'The Rascal' will remember him well as he was a selection of mine last year on his seasonal debut. This is my confident selection today.
12-1 best price

15.55 Cheltenham - Neptune Investment
My only 'win' bet today is in this race and its the Emma Lavelle trained Timesremebered. Emma Lavelle couldn't be in any better form and I was very impressed by my selections Grade 2 win last time out. Paul Nichols horse could be anything, but I think Timesremembered has all the rest covered.
5-2 best price

15.15 Wetherby
Zafranagar should be spot on from his seasonal reappearance 2 weeks ago and should be ready for today. He was well backed for that run, which suggests he should have been ready then, but visually it looked to me that he was in need of the run.
6-1 best price

That's all from me today... I was tempted by Goulanes, but his price is a little too short for the risk.

Best of luck all.

Dudders

The Old Roan Chase

Its no secret at all that I am more of a jumps man, than a flat one... so you can surely understand my excitement around this time of year. Along with the fact we have an extra hour in bed tonight, I can hardly contain myself :-)

Old Roan Chase (15.05 Aintree)
What better place to start today but at the show-piece at Aintree. Last year For Non Stop made a mockery of his handicap mark by demolishing the field by 23 lengths... I cannot see any here that look particularly well handicapped, so I'll go for the 2nd in that race to go one better in Wishful Thinking. My selection has a pretty good record at the track with a win and 2 seconds in his last 3 outings here and is now 4lbs better off that last year. You cannot ignore Walkon, who has a tremendous record when fresh, and Edgardo Sol, who brings youth to the field should run a good race. Not the easiest race to sum up, but I strongly fancy Wishful Thinking to place at worst.
13-2 Best price.

Racing Post Trophy (15.50 Donny)
This race is another that looks wide open, but there is a horse that left a very, very good impression with me last time out, when winning at Newbury on soft. I feel that Pinzolo still left a fair amount in the tank when winning that race, and the 2nd came out after and franked that form. With the form over the distance and on the ground, I have to stick with him.
5-1 Best price.

13.55 Aintree
I like Special Catch a lot on this race... ran a great race at the Grand National meeting and had run well when fresh before.
5-1 Best price.

Best of luck all.

Ayr Gold Cup Day

The Ayr Gold Cup, one of my favourite races of the year. 20+ runners, over 6 furlongs and a handicap. Not only do I enjoy this race as a spectacle, but its also been kind to the ol' wallet in years gone by.

This race, along with 2 others, are my only targets today.

14.20 - Newbury
The Mill Reef Stakes today holds the return of the unbeaten Richard Hannon trained Shamshon, who will surely be at the top of most peoples lists, however, this is his first run over 6 furlongs and on ground softer than good, so for me, he's a tad to short. I will be siding with Hot Streak. This Kevin Ryan trained colt is back on turf, which is a huge plus and has form on soft. I may have my facts wrong here, but I do not think the Irish jockey has ever won in the UK, so I am hoping this changes today.
15-2 Best price.

15.15 - Ayr
A nice 2 year old big field here, so I expect it to be run at a true pace. Although my selection was behind the favourite Valonia on debut, she took time for the penny to drop, but when it did, she flew home. Coral Mist has since come out and improved with a pretty comfortable win at Haydock. I think there is more room for improvement here and she should go very close.
8-1 Best price.

15.50 - Ayr Gold Cup
26 runners at the moment, with only 1 withdrawal. That horse is Captain Ramius, last years winner, so pretty significant. I could go through plenty of horses here, but will be waffling on for hours, so lets only concentrate on my selection. My horse hits the weight and age trends, has a trainer who has a 25% strike rate at Ayr (albeit with only 12 runners) and has a very promising young jockey taking off a very welcome 5lbs. The horse in question is Highland Colori. He's only ever contested 1 run at Ayr and that saw him finishing 2nd in last years Silver Cup at this meeting. Most of his form is at 7 furlongs, but he's got nice form on soft, so 6 furlongs today should be no problem at all.
20-1 Best price.

Football Five Fold;
Liverpool, QPR, Blackburn, Dortmund & Celtic
Just under 10-1

Best of luck all,

Dudders

July Cup Day

Here are my thoughts for the racing on Channel 4 today. 6 selections that interest me a lot, and all at e/w prices. The racing is competitive today so hopefully we'll see some truly run races.

NEWMARKET
14.05
Prince's Trust is the favourite in this race, and you'll be hoping that he is well handicapped for his debut in this sphere to be backing him at shortish odds... The horse I like is Muharrib. His seasonal return was ok as he didn't get the best of starts, but he still ran well enough off top weight. Running off a rating of 91 again today, with that run behind him, I am expecting him to be a lot closer.
7-1 Best price.

14.40
Anybody with any knowledge on trainers will know that the Brian Meehan horses almost always improve from their debut to their 2nd outing. The fact that Recanted won on debut is very encouraging. Obviously this is a lot harder than his maiden win, but knowing he is bound to improve, he has to be an e/w bet.
9-2 Best price.

15.15
20 runners, in a handicap, not the easiest to breakdown. I have looked at an inform horse, who loves 7 furlongs over fast ground. That horse is Redvers. Admittedly, he doesn't look the best handicapped but he will always run his race and he was unlucky last time at Ascot.
14-1 Best price.

15.50
The feature for the day, and a race I'm looking forward to watching. We get these sprinters facing each other a fair few times a year and its always scintillating (in my opinion). Society Rock had to go the long and hard way round last time, but still finished 2nd. Over 6 furlongs on fast ground I believe this horse is the best on offer and at the prices, he's an excellent e/w bet.
11-2 Best price.

York
14.20
Onto York now, and Songcraft is my selection here. He has a course and distance win on his CV and I feel he ran pretty well enough in a Group 2 last time out. There is reason to believe he can be even better on faster ground, and this seems to be his best distance (2 from 2 over 14 furlongs).
13-2 Best price.

14.55
A small stakes e/w for my last selection. This is not an easy race to assess, but Awake My Soul is in very good form this year. He hasn't been out of the places in all 5 of his contests this term, winning 3 of them. He has only ever raced on good to firm once, and he won that... we also have Daniel Tudhope back on-board, which is only a plus.
20-1 Best price.

Best of luck to all today. 

Dudders

Ascot - Friday - Coronation Stakes Day

First blog for a while... not the easiest of days punting, but here are my thoughts.

2.30- 

Favourite can be taken on here, a couple in here with far superior pedigrees, most notably Joyeuse (half sister to Frankel) and WEDDING RING... At the prices I'm taking a chance that Wedding Ring will improve enough to at least place.

12-1 Best price.

3.05- 

Battle of Marengo is a ridiculous price considering Derby runners have an awful record in this race. However, its tricky because he has by far the best form on offer. CONTRIBUTER each way for me.

14-1 Best price (drifting)

3.45- 

BIG BREAK had an awful draw last time but still ran well, much better here to get cover and is a nice each way price. Viztoria is of interest at a higher price.

6-1 Best price.

4.25- tough race, my dart has fallen on LABARINTO each way.

12-1 Best price.

5.00- 

I was all over nearly Caught, but he's now a non runner. As I like Contributer above, I'll take a chance on DISCLAIMER. favourite is too short.

9-2 Best price.

5.35- 

Having 29 runners doesn't make this easy, however SMARTY SOCKS is still really well weighted and I feel he will run another big race.

22-1 Best price.

Best of luck all.

Dudders

Derby Day Farewell

It was in 2011 that The Rascal came alive. I can't for the life of me remember the exact horse but it was a Hannon horse who was a winner that came of my first ever 'tip'. My followers began to grow, mainly due to @kyleleedsfan who started the hash tag #alwaysfollowtherascal. Within those 2 years my followers have grown to just over 3000.

Over the last year or so there have been an increasing amount of 'tipsters' joining twitter. They start out asking for RT's left right and centre, or 'please read my blog, I'm up 30 points this week'. Personally, I never cared much for them or ever RT'd them as I felt inclined to believe they were only in it for one thing, money. Low and behold, the majority of them now charge, most notably @footyacca and @tips4theslips (which may I add, is the worst twitter handle ever). There are some genuine people on here and are well worth a follow... then there are accounts like @tippingscams, who, on paper look like they're doing something for the greater good, but I'd be amazed if they weren't affiliated to some sort of 'tipster' on here, and I'd bet anything that they are. So personally, I'm a bit bored of it all now. If I could leave you with one piece of advice, never pay for tips, these people are not better than anyone else, they have the same form to study etc and IF they were that good, then surely they make enough money out of betting themselves. If I was a professional gambler, I certainly wouldn't be sharing my views.

So this is my last ever Rascal Blog and the twitter account will be closing. Thought I'd let you all know why, not that anyone will be bothered, haha! There are tons of us out there. I'm sure @rascaltips will be pleased :-). By all means follow my personal account @matthewdudney as horse racing is still a passion and would still love to piffle about it.

Best of luck today. Lets go out on a high.

1.35 Epsom

MUNDAHESH came back from a break as favourite in a handicap at York, where he finished a poor 11th. I'm inclined to forgive him for that as he had very good maiden form, and I don't think this mark is beyond him and he may have needed that run. Richard Hughes now on board and 10-1 is a nice e/w price.

10-1 Best Price

2.05 Epsom

Obviously Thunder Strike is of interest, but he's quite a skinny price against these unexposed 2 year olds. The horse that has impressed me the most is RIVERBOAT SPRINGS. He saw off Money Team who then came out and won easily. I think there is still bags on improvement left in my selection and Buick is an eye catching jockey.

5-1 Best Price

The Derby

I do think that Dawn Approach is the class act in the field and clearly the one to beat. He's the only group 1 winner in the field, which says it all really. However, Ladbrokes are the betting company that are taking him on, they've gone 7-4 this morning, which looking at it is huge for this horse, but, because its Labrokes, I have left alone, they don't normally give out freebies, and are rarely wrong. I have gone with LIBERTARIAN e/w. His Dante win was impressive and like Dawn Approach he is also by New Approach who had the winner of The Oaks yesterday. Buick onboard again and he should relish the extra 2 furlongs.

16-1 Best Price.

Best of luck all.

The Rascal

The Oaks Day

Good evening/morning all, the 3rd classic of the year is upon us and its the start of 2 very good days racing.

Here are my selections for Day 1.

13.35 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes
In my opinion, there are 2 horses here who have the best form on offer (with Starscope filling third). Those 2 in question are Beatrice Aurore and LADYS FIRST. Considering the latter is a 4 year old, and that age group have an incredible record in this race, I'll be siding with her.
7-1 Best Price.

14.10 - Investec Wealth and Investment
As I pointed out on twitter during the week, Amanda Perrett is in superb form. BLUE SURF ran out a ready winner on seasonal debut last year and continued to impress. The soft ground should be no issue at all and he's better at 10 furlongs.
5-1 Best Price.

14.45 - Investec Diomed Stakes
PRODUCER is 4 from 4 at Epsom and with the smallish field he should be able to see out the extra furlong (all wins have been at 7). This is enough for me to back him.
4-1 Best Price.

16.00 - The Oaks
On paper this looks like an excellent renewal, I hope it plays out that way. I cannot get away from MOTH. I backed her in the Guineas and with a better ride I am sure she would have finished a lot closer. Bags of stamina on the dam side and I'll be absolutely amazed if she's not in the top 3 at least. Although obviously I'm on for the win.
If this doesn't take your fancy, then Talent is of interest as an outsider, her form is very good for a 16-1 shot and she could start off the Oaks / Derby double for New Approach, with Dawn Approach looking the most likely winner on Saturday. I've had a very small e/w on her.
7-2 Best Price (Moth)
16-1 Best Price (Talent)

Best of luck all.

The Rascal

2000 Guineas Day

Hello to all readers. Its been a while, but I couldn't resist a blog for the first classic of the year.


2000 Guineas
All the talk is about Dawn Approach and Toronado and I couldn't put anybody off either of them. Dawn Approach is unbeaten in 6, Toronado unbeaten in 4. Both have been highly impressive and both probably deserve the win. However, because I simply cannot split them I will be having a speculative bet on a bigger priced horse and will be happy to get a place... and maybe, just maybe, if one of the 2 favourites have an off day, then you just never know. That horse is VAN DER NEER. This Richard Hannon horse has been impressive in his wins, and a couple of them have had their form franked Most notably by Masarah who won at Sandown in the week. The only loss for my selection was his 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy last year behind the highly regarded Kingsbairns, which is nothing to be too sad about. Small bet.
22-1 Best price (as of Friday night)

14.55 Goodwood
There are some tricky races today, and this is not that much easier. However, there is a horse in here who I believe to be pretty well handicapped after his last run, and he's been dropped a further lb from then. ACCESSION is the horse in question and I see this as an excellent e/w bet.
7-1 Best price (as of Friday night)

16.05 Goodwood
For a win bet today, I see no better than SENTARIL. 1 mile is no issue and he won on debut last year... Haggas is in excellent form and even though he's conceding weight all round here he's the best horse in the race, so should be ok. Possibly would not want the ground to get too firm, but I still see him winning.
3-1 best price (as of Friday night) 

That's all for me. Best of luck to all.

The Rascal 

Grand National Day

Torrid 2nd day at Aintree, so lets forget that and move on very swiftly.


13.45 - JOHN SMITH´S MERSEY NOVICES´ HURDLE (Grade 2)
Clearly the best horse in this race is Dodging Bullets, but with the step up in trip a clear negative in my opinion, I have to look elsewhere. If he takes to the extra 4 furlongs then he wins, but I don't think he will and there is nothing in his pedigree to make me think otherwise. We then move onto the favourite in Up and Go. The form of the Donald McCain runners is a worry, even though he managed a win at Sedgefield yesterday and I do feel this horse needs soft ground, according to his action. I'll be with UTOPIE DES BORDES. This filly by Nicky Henderson (who by the way, had an excellent day yesterday) has form on good ground, the drop back to 2m4f is a big bonus and the filly's allowance always helps.
5-1 Best price.

14.15 - JOHN SMITH´S MAGHULL NOVICES´ CHASE (Grade 1)
Surely OVERTURN's poor run in the Arkle was only due to the ground? That's my take on it anyway, and on better ground this time around, with hopefully an uncontested lead, he can show his true colours. I am a big fan of Baily Green, but I think he'll be the complete opposite to Overturn on this ground. I think that the rest will fall a little short of this grade and its all set up for Overturn to bounce back.
9-4 Best price.

14.50 - JOHN SMITH´S LIVERPOOL HURDLE (Grade 1)
It was a favourites day yesterday, and I think that will continue here. SOLWHIT was very impressive when stepped up to 3 miles for the first time in the World Hurdle and he shouldn't have too much trouble with the better ground here. I would love to see Grands Crus run well, but he is a shadow of his former self.
5-2 best price.

15.25 - JOHN SMITH´S HANDICAP CHASE (Listed Race)
After frustratingly seeing Battle Group bolt up on Thursday after I have followed him a few times and knew he had a bit of class about him, i'd be amazed if he can win this race only 2 days later. I like PROBLEMA TIC and Loch Ba for this. The former is my selection and I fully expect David Pipe to have him spot on, now he's back to his last winning mark. He loves good ground and this is the time to catch him... the blinkers should have a positive effect.
18-1 Best price.

16.15 - JOHN SMITH´S GRAND NATIONAL CHASE (Handicap) (Grade 3)
So the big one. As mentioned on twitter on Thursday, my 3 against the field are Cappa Bleu, Seabass and Roberto Goldback. Best of luck in whoever yours are.
11-1 Seabass
12-1 Cappa Bleu
33-1 Roberto Goldback
(from Thursday)

17.10 - JOHN SMITH´S HANDICAP HURDLE (For Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders)
22 horses, all with amateur jockeys on their backs. To call this tough would be an understatement. So its best to go with a good jockey, for an inform yard. That lands with JUMPS ROAD for me.
16-1 Best price.

17.45 - JOHN SMITH´S CHAMPION STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE(Grade 2)
What surprises me time and time again in these flat races at festivals are that unbeaten horses have a tremendous record. There is only 1 here, and that's DAKAR RUN. So that's where my small bet will go.
16-1 Best price.


Best of luck all.

The Rascal

Aintree Grand National Meeting - Day 2

Mixed fortunes for day 1, but I am very pleased that I was adamant that Silviniaco Conti wouldn't win. Onto day 2.

14.00 - ROSE APPEAL SUPPORTS ALDER HEY TOP NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 2
My Tent or Yours is clearly the pick for this race, but at the odds its a definite no bet for me. Interestingly, he's the only horse in this field that ran at Cheltenham, and considering that was a tough race for him, he's easily opposed. But, is it a no bet race, or will we look elsewhere? I'm looking elsewhere... and considering its got the potential of a sprint finish, FORGOTTEN VOICE has an excellent chance if he settles well. Will be interesting to see how Barry G manages this, but I advise an e/w bet with Ladbrokes at 4-1.
4-1 Best price.

14.30 - JOHN SMITH´S MILDMAY NOVICES´ CHASE GRADE 2
I am totally with a horse who skipped Cheltenham in this... and considering there is only 1, it has to be ROCKY CREEK. The small field will really help as he is 4 from 4 when there are 6 horses or less in the race. People will be wary of the good ground, but I think he just struggled last year at Cheltenham because it was a massive field.
5-2 Best price.

15.05 - JOHN SMITH´S MELLING CHASE GRADE 1
What an excellent race we have in store here. Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar along with another couple, who on their day, can be top quality as well, in For Non Stop and Finian's Rainbow. If there was ever a race Sprinter Sacre might lose, its this. But lets face it, he wont, and I dont want him too either. He's too short to back, but impossible to oppose. 
NO BET

15.40 - JOHN SMITH´S TOPHAM CHASE HANDICAP (Grade 3)
The second day, and second race over the National fences. A horse that is tumbling down the weights is my selection in TARTAK. He ran a very good race at Cheltenham and he's gone down another 4 lbs. This horse was a good horse in his day, winning a handicap chase off a mark of 149 back in 2011. He's now going off 130 here and he looks a big price to me.
14-1 Best price.

16.15 - JOHN SMITH´S SEFTON NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1
This isn't a great horse for favourites, but At Fishers Cross looks a very very smart staying Novice. He's beaten The New One before and we all know how well he's franked that form since. However, for me, he's just a little too short to back. Considering he won for me at 3-1 at the festival, I wont be diving in at 11-8. ROAD TO RICHES is the interesting one for me, and he could be absolutely anything. Like At Fishers Cross, he is taking to good ground for the first time, but there are good ground winners in his pedigree and i'd rather take the place money for a horse that has impressed me in his 3 wins from just 3 runs under rules.
8-1 Best price.

16.50 - JOHN SMITH´S DAILY MIRROR PUNTERS CLUB HANDICAP HURDLE (Listed Race)
This race is a bit of a minefield, so its just a small bet, and when I say small, I mean small. But that selection is for PRIMA PORTA, who ran really well at Cheltenham behind Quevega and the return to good ground is no issue at all.
20-1 best price.

17.25 - JOHN SMITH´S MARES´ STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE(Listed Race)
The flat race at Cheltenham is not really one I like to get stuck into, and its the same here. However, OUR POLLYANNA is interesting with Barry G riding for Alan King. I'll have a small bet on that, but its certainly no tip.
16-1 Best price.

That's me done for today. best of luck to all.

The Rascal.

Aintree Meeting - Day 1

So, who remembers Cheltenham? It feels like it was a long time ago now, but its best to keep your eyes on those that ran there. Its only been 3 weeks so the ones that ran there are more than likely here as an afterthought. 3 weeks isn't a great deal of time to let a horse recover and then get them to peak fitness again, and its towards the end of the season now. I'm not saying they cannot win, because obviously they can, i'm just saying be wary.


So onto the racing.

14.00 - MATALAN ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-O JUVENILE HURDLE GRADE 1
The Cheltenham statement above can easily be cast aside for this race because Triumph Hurdle runners have a fairly good record. However, I do feel that IRISH SAINT can be a very good bet. He's back on better ground and has missed Cheltenham so is bound to be fresh as a daisy. He has to turn the form around with Rolling Star but with the flatter track, and better ground, I think he will.
7-2 Best price.

14.30 - BETFRED BOWL CHASE GRADE 1
I think that anyone taking the evens on the favourite Silviniaco Conti needs their heads checking. Yes, he's the best horse in the race, but that means nothing here and Cheltenham Gold Cup runners have an awful record in this race. With that in mind, and the fact he fell at Cheltenham, so you really do not know the extent of the fall, make me look elsewhere without any persuasion. He could easily hose up on form, and he probably deserves to, but at the price? No thank you. So there are only 2 horses here who didn't make it to Cheltenham and 1 of them is my selection. Paul Townend gave QUITO DE LA ROQUE a real peach of a ride at Thurles when riding on him for the first time, and he has some pretty decent course form. He's my stand out e/w selection of the day.
10-1 Best price.

15.05 - JOHN SMITH´S AINTREE HURDLE GRADE 1
Tough race to weigh up this. If Oscar Whisky had ran a better race at Cheltenham then I would have been very keen on him, but its hard to ignore that, even though he's won this the last 2 years. The New One is a very exciting prospect for the future, but he's still a novice, and I wonder if this step up in class is a little too soon. I'm going to stick with my Champion Hurdle selection ZARKANDAR to hopefully repay me back. I still feel he is a classy animal and its as clear as day that this step up in trip will see him in his best light.
5-1 Best price.

15.40 - JOHN SMITH´S FOX HUNTERS´ CHASE
This is not a race to get stuck into betting wise, but it is always a pretty good spectacle. I'll be going with BOLD ADDITION who has impressed me with his 2 hunter chases.
11-2 Best price.

16.15 - MATALAN.CO.UK RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3
Novice chasers normally run well in this race and I will be siding with the Ruby Walsh selection in REBEL REBELLION. He has a nice profile for this race and I feel he can be a better horse than a 140 chaser after this handicap debut.
7-1 Best price.

16.50 - BETFRED MANIFESTO NOVICES´ CHASE GRADE 1
Most people will be looking at Captain Conan and Changing Times for this, being that they both ran creditably in the Jewson last month. However, I have always felt that HIS EXCELLENCY would improve for the extra few furlongs, and I cannot ignore his price especially if it stays with the dead 8.
12-1 Best price.

17.25 - SILVER CROSS HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3
Another race to not go crazy on betting wise, as there are plenty of horses running, and plenty in with a great chance, which I suppose is just stating the obvious. I'll be going with the ultra consistent  DOUBLE ROSS who will always run a good race.
20-1 Best price.

Best of luck all.

The Rascal

Lincoln & Dubai World Cup

I will be previewing the Lincoln and The Dubai World Cup as they are my main bets of today. But I will also give my selections for the Group 1's at Meydan.


15.05 Doncaster - William Hill Lincoln
So after a minor setback last week, the first real day of the flat season is here. Its not the easiest of races to work out but there is a horse that I am very keen on. Brae Hill, last years winner, returns this year on the same handicap mark of 95, so he's got to be on a lot of peoples lists, especially as he runs well when fresh. Jacks Revenge could run a good race at a big price, but I like one of the John Gosden horses. LAHAAG could be on a cracking mark for his seasonal return. He's up 5 lbs for a head loss behind Chapter Seven (who also runs here, and 6lbs higher than that win) but there is reason to believe that there is more scope for improvement from my selection. He's running from stall 6 though, so my advice would be check the results of the Spring Mile to see where the best side is.

9-1 Best price.

18.05 Meydan - Dubai World Cup
Godolphin have an excellent record in this race, and American horses do not. I will have to stick with this, even though the American horses look to have the better form. Of those Godolphin horses, Hunters Light is favourite, and you cannot knock his form at this course at all. The best from the US is sure to be Royal Delta, who is a multiple Group 1 winner, but I will be siding with AFRICAN STORY. As I am writing this, news has just broken that Mickael Barzalona is riding over Fallon, which is a bit of a shame for Fallon, but it doesn't change my opinion. I feel the step up in trip will be perfect.

9-1 Best price.

Meydan Group 1's
15.05 - Shea Shea, 11-8
15.45 - Frederick Engels, 10-1 e/w
16.40 - Sajjhaa, 8-1 e/w
17.20 - St Nicholas Abbey, 7-2

Best of luck all.

The Rascal.

Cheltenham Festival Day 4 - Friday - Gold Cup Day

No winners on Thursday, it can only get better.

JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1
Important Trends;

• Sixteen of the last nineteen winners won the last time out before the festival.
• Just two of the last fifteen winners were rated lower than 80 on the flat.
• Nineteen of the last twenty-two runners had run at least three times over hurdles.
• There have only been seven placed Irish trained horses in the last ten years, from a total of fifty-eight runners, although they've had the second place horse the last two years.

I would be absolutely amazed if the winner of this race didn't come from either Far West, Our Conner or Rolling Star, but as they're the 3 favourites, I suppose that's pretty obvious to point out. However, finding the winner, isn't so. The one who ticks all the trends is Far West, but I will be going against, purely because Paul Nicholls hasn't had the best of weeks. Our Conner is an obvious choice, but that Irish stat is blaring out to me, and I cannot ignore that. So i'm with ROLLING STAR. He has only been seen in the UK over hurdles once, but he was very impressive up the Cheltenham hill on heavy ground. There is reason to believe that he will improve even more so on the better ground, and this Nicky Henderson horse look a real hot prospect.

7-2 Best price.

VINCENT O´BRIEN COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3

Important Trends;

• Six of the last eight winners were rated between 128 and 135.
• Sixteen of the last nineteen winners had raced at least four times in that season.

This race is a bit of a minefield if i'm honest, so i'll be straight to the point. I like IFANDBUTWHYNOT. This horse is an improving sort, who has a win at Cheltenham on his CV and is 2 from 2 under Timmy Murphy.

11-1 Best price.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES´ HURDLE (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 1

Important Trends;

• All eight winners of this race had run at least three times over hurdles.
• Nineteen of the twenty-one win and placed horses in this race had finished first or second in their last prep race.
• All eight winners were rode handily.
• Six of the last eight winners had previously contested races over three miles.

I think you really would be mad to go against AT FISHERS CROSS in this race who has stamina in abundance. In his last race here at Cheltenham he beat The New One who couldn't have been anymore impressive on Wednesday in the Neptune and I feel this could be AP McCoys first win at the festival this year. There are others in this race that will push him, but with my selections experience at the course and distance, I have to stick with him.

3-1 Best price.

BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1

Important Trends;

• All of the last thirteen winners of the race had previously won a Grade 1 contest.
• Seventeen of the last nineteen winners were aged between seven and nine.
• The last twelve winners started in the top three of the betting.
• Eleven of the last twelve winners were rated at 166 or higher.
• Thirteen of the last fourteen winners had won earlier in the season.

Well, here it is... the big one of the week, and what a race we have in prospect. I simply cannot get away from BOBS WORTH and its by far my best bet of the day. Of course, I cannot easily cast aside Long Run, who has won this race before and has won 2 King Georges or Sir Des Champs, who won the Jewson last year and is sure to stay. But, you have to say that Bobs Worth is a worthy favourite. He is 4 from 4 at the track, has improved on his jumping and with Barry Geraghty on his back should be in front at the winning post. It would be rude to not mention Silviniaco Conti, who is 3 wins from 3 races this year, but like I said before, Nicholls hasn't had the best of weeks and I believe he'd be better on a flatter track.

11-4 Best price.

CGA FOXHUNTER CHASE CHALLENGE CUP

Important Trends;

• Twenty of the last twenty-two winners were aged ten or younger.
• Twenty-two of the last twenty-seven winners won on their last appearance before the festival.

We may well see the same two horses as last year fighting out the finish here, however, I fancy CHAPOTURGEON to reverse the placings with Salisify. 

9-2 Best price.

MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS´ HANDICAP HURDLE

Important Trends;

• All 4 winners rated 133-139
• All 4 winners ran no more than 4 times that season
• 5 & 6 year olds dominated, accounting for all four wins and 6 places
• Jockeys with allowances claimed 12 of the 16 places & 3 from 4 wins

Its probably best to take those trends with a pinch of salt, considering there has only been 4 runnings of this race. I really like the form of MA FILLEULE's last win. The 2nd and 3rd that day ran really well behind Quevega earlier in the week, and Nicky Henderson has already won this race before. I also think she is running off a very nice weight.

11-1 Best price.

JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (Handicap) Grade 3

Important Trends;

• The last thirteen out of fourteen winners have raced no more than twelve times over fences.
• Thirty of the last thirty-seven winners of the race were priced under 10/1.

A tough race to finish the meeting, 24 runners in a handicap over fences... sounds easy right? The 3 form horses coming into the race are Ulck Du Lin, Rody and Alderwood. Out of the 3, Alderwood certainly looks the better handicapped, but i'll be siding with a horse right near the bottom on the weights. ANQUETTA has run in this race the past two years running relatively well and he should be much more fresher this year. Its also a race that Nicky Henderson likes to win, for obvious reasons.

16-1 Best price.

Best of luck, The Rascal.

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3 - Thursday

Another winner today/yesterday in Lord Windermere, which was handy to be honest, as that was the only one (backed). We'll change that here though.


JEWSON NOVICES´ CHASE (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2
Important Trends;

• There isn't any really, other than the fact that the Irish have won both runnings

If i'm honest, even though that trend doesn't mean much, i'm going to stick with it. I have the utmost respect for Dynaste, but the form of AUPCHARLIE has been backed up this festival, whereas maybe Dynaste's hasn't. Obviously a bit of cut would be preferable, but his action appears to me that he will handle this ground fine. The drop in trip will suit perfectly and of course, Willies Mullins can do no wrong at the moment.

6-1 Best price.

PERTEMPS FINAL (A Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race)

Important Trend;

• Nine of the last seventeen winners won last time out.

Easily the toughest race to work out today. The trend doesn't really help and there are 24 runners. So where to look? Well, I'll be having a small bet on CAPTAIN SUNSHINE. I have always felt that 3 miles at Cheltenham is spot on and perfect for this horse. He's become a bit of a cliff horse for me, but I will be giving him one last chance. Its a minefield race, so I have to stick to my guns on this one.

20-1 Best price.

RYANAIR CHASE (Registered As The Festival Trophy Chase) Grade 1

Important Trends;

• All bar one of the eight winners of this race had a previous win at the Cheltenham track to their name.
• Ireland have yet to win this race.
• All but one of the eight of top rated horses have been beaten, Riverside Theatre was top rated at 168 in 2012.

I am very much looking forward to this race, not only because the field is mouthwatering, but also, my best bet of the day runs in it. CHAMPION COURT looks spot on for this race. He has great course form, he ran well in the Jewson last year, and looks set to make a big impression this year.

15-2 Best price.

LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1

Important Trends;

• No five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle.
• There hasn't been an Irish trained winner in this race for eighteen years.
• The last twenty-five winners all finished in the first four in their last prep race before the festival.
• Only one front runner has held on for a place since 1996.

I'm sure i'm not alone in feeling sad that Big Bucks isn't here to make history. There is no doubt in my mind that he would have won this if fully fit. However, he's not here and for the first time in 4 years, this is hugely competitive. A lot will revolve around whether Peddlars Cross holds any of his old ability. When in his prime, he went unbeaten in 7 races over hurdles, won at the festival in the Neptune (beating Reve De Sivola) and then pushed Hurricane Fly all the way to the line when I believe, Hurricane Fly was at his best. However, in that same year he was put well and truly in his place by OSCAR WHISKY at Aintree. Anyone who thought that Oscar Whiskey wouldn't stay 3 miles were proven wrong last time out on heavy ground, and with the better ground here I am sure he can reverse the placings with Reve De Sivola.

7-2 Best price.

BYRNE GROUP PLATE (A Handicap Chase) Grade 3

Important Trends;

• Twenty-three of the last twenty-five winners were officially rated no higher than 141.
• There has been only one Irish trained winner in this race since 1951.
• Eighteen of the last twenty-one winners finished in the top four last time out.

I will absolutely kick myself if wrong here, as going against a rule that I normally stick by. That is "Do not back any Ferdy Murphy horses". However. The reasons why I don't back them, could work in my favour in this race. We all know that he is a bit of a genius / swindler, whatever you like to call it, when it comes to handicap races at the festival, and my selection has even won one before in a novice event. DIVERS ran in this same race last year off 7 lbs lower and arguably, he was unlucky in that race. He also fits the trends, and for those reasons I will be backing him.

18-1 Best price.

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE (Amateur Riders)

Important Trends;

• There has not been an Irish trained winner of the race for twenty-eight years.
• Only four of the last thirty-three winners were aged seven or younger.
• Top weight has won two of the last four runnings.

David Pipe is a trainer to watch for this race, as its one he focuses on. He has 3 runners here and I actually like them all, so if there was a market for a Pipe winner here, i'd back it. However, I haven't found one, so will whittle them down. Swing Bowler is a horse I like a lot, and actually backed/tipped him on his last win here. But I do not think this is a horse that can carry a heavy weight, and he doesn't look well handicapped to me. Problema Tic looks to have a better chance back on better ground, but i'm not a big fan of his jumping, and I feel that could really let him down today. So that leaves me with NO SECRETS. He has good novice hurdle form and has really come to light over fences since the application of the tongue tie. He's riding off a featherweight and has a good amateur jockey on board, who has won at the festival before, back in 2010. He looks a very typical Pipe horse for this race.

14-1 Best price.

GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A Cross Country Chase)

Important Trends;

• The last twenty-three winners of the race had all contested cross country races before.
• The trends suggest that the handicap is not an issue, Garde Champetre and Spot The Difference both recent top weight winners.
• Irish trainer Enda Bolger is a cross country specialist and has won fourteen of the 32 cross country races run at Cheltenham before. He has also saddled four of the last eight winners of this race.
• British trained runners have a dreadful record in the race, currently 1 from 65 runners, although Balthazar King bucked that trend in 2012 winning for Phillip Hobbs.

In my opinion this is between, Uncle Junior, Outlaw Pete and ARABELLA BOY. I know that the top weights can run well in this race, but I do feel 11-12 will be too tough for Uncle Junior. It'll be close between the other 2 though and I'll be siding with Arabella Boy, who is trained by Edna and has more of a progressive profile in my opinion.

9-2 Best price.

Best of luck all,

The Rascal

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

Not a bad start today/yesterday, depending on when you;re reading this... 3 selections won, but I only backed Champagne Fever out of those.

Anyway onto Day 2..


JOHN OAKSEY NATIONAL HUNT CHASE (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase )
Important Trends;

• There has only been one winning five or six year old in the race since 1989.
• Twenty-six of the last twenty-nine winners had finished in the top four in their last prep run.

Tricky start to the day here and all eyes will bound to be on Back In Focus, and rightly so given his form over in Ireland. But there are others here that make his price just a little too short. I like ROSE OF THE MOON. This horse has bags of stamina and is versatile with regards to the ground, but a little bit of cut will be preferable. I am also very happy with the jockey on board.

16-1 Best price.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES´ HURDLE (Registered Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1

Important Trends;

• Twenty-three of the last twenty-six winners have had at least three runs over the hurdles.
• Twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine winners finished in the top two on their most recent start before the festival.
• Bumper horses have a much better record than ex-flat horses
• Twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine winners finished in the top two on their most recent start before the festival.
• There has only been one winner aged over six in the last 39 years.

There are no secrets at all with regards to what Mullins and Ruby feel about PONT ALEXANDRE and normally I would not buy into the hype, but this horse has the form to back it up. Along with the fact that the Mullins/Ruby combination had an excellent start to the festival, I am struggling to find a reason not to back him. Chatterbox is quite a big price for an unbeaten horse, but the potential of the selection is huge.

6-4 Best price.

RSA CHASE (Grade 1)

Important Trends;

• The last thirteen winners have all raced at least three times over the timber.
• Only two six-year-olds have won the RSA Chase since 1978.
• There has not been a winner over the age of eight since 1992.
• The last 49 winners all raced during the same calendar year.
• Twenty-four of the last twenty-five winners either won or finished second on their last run before the festival.

There is no doubt in my mind that Boston Bob and Unioniste will have plenty of supporters here. However, a couple of the trends above are too strong to ignore and I am looking at LORD WINDERMERE. Even though his pedigree doesn't scream out 3 miles, his racing style and form does. I think he's worth an e/w chance here.

10-1 Best price.

 

SPORTINGBET QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1

Important Trends;

• The last thirteen Arkle Trophy winners to run in this race the following year have all placed at worst, Finian's Rainbow was second in the Arkle the year before.

The racingpost says "The awesome SPRINTER SACRE may not be backable for most punters but he is also unopposable. Stand by to applaud one of the greats" and I have to say, this is exactly how I feel. No bet for me, but Sprinter Sacre, with a clean round, will not lose.

No Bet

CORAL CUP (A Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3 

Important Trends;

• There has never been a winner rated higher than 147.
• Six of the last ten winners in this race were winners in their last race before the festival.

A very tough race, probably the toughest all week. But nonetheless, I am rather keen on PENDRA. He finished 4 and a half lengths behind a 150 rated horse, and Pendra is running off 139 here. He could be thrown in considering that last race possibly wasn't run to suit and the trainer had a couple of winners the other day. Also, we have AP McCoy on board, which in these big fields and at the festival, can never be a bad thing.

8-1 Best price.

FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3

Important Trends;

• Five of the eight winners have run exactly three times to acquire a handicap mark.
• Seven of the last eight winners of this race were beaten on their first two starts over hurdles.
• Fillies have won four of the eight runnings.

A tentative vote, accompanied by a small bet will go towards SAPHIR DU RHEU. He has the scope for more improvement and the race should run to suit.

7-1 Best price.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 1

Important Trends;

• Irish trained horses dominate this race with fifteen winners from the twenty runnings.
• Eighteen of the twenty winners had won on their last race out before the festival.
• French bred horses are three from twenty-seven chances to place.

My idea of the winner here is one of the Mullins horses in UNION DUES. He has impressed me with both of his wins. The form of both races look pretty decent, he goes well fresh and of course, the trainer has an excellent record in the race.

8-1 Best price.

Best of luck to all.

The Rascal

Cheltenham Festival Day 1

Well, here we are. The 2013 Cheltenham Festival.

It can be a tough place to make money, so best of luck to all of you and please just enjoy it for what it is... an amazing sport.


WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1
Important Trends:

• Fourteen of the last sixteen winners won on their last appearance before the Cheltenham Festival.
• Only three of the last sixteen horses to start at odds of 3/1 or shorter have won.

Ok, so I spent hours on Sunday night going through this race and came to the conclusion of Rock Critic and Melodic Rendezvous  As they are now both non runners I have had to look elsewhere, so sadly, I am not as confident in this race as before. My Tent or Yours is clearly a very good horse. I cannot be backing him though as the price is far too short, and his form is rather muddling. Jezki has the beating of my selection on a specific piece of form, but I worry that he's been off a bit too long, and was not at his best when fresh last October. So I'm siding with CHAMPAGNE FEVER. The smaller, more tactical field is sure to help and the drop back to 2 miles is spot on.

7-1 Best price.
WINNER


RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1
Important Trends:

• Twelve out of the last thirteen winners had a rating of 142 and over and five of these were the highest rated hurdler in the race.
• Only three favourites in the last 21 runnings of the Arkle have won the race.
• 24 of the last 26 winners finished either first or second in the last race before the festival.

I have tried very hard, believe me, to get away from the top two in the market, but its impossible. I would be very very surprised if the winner didn't come from either Simonsig or Overturn. Due to the soft ground I've sided with SIMONSIG. But its a no bet race for me. Which is a shame as its probably my favourite of the whole week :-(

NO BET

JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3

Important Trends:

• The last twelve out of thirteen winners carried less than eleven stone to victory.
• There has not been a winner rated higher than 150 for thirty years.
• Horses aged eleven or over have failed to place in the last fourteen runnings

He will have a tough time with an extra 12lbs on his back, but the way LOCH BA won for me last time out left me feeling he still clearly had a lot left in the tank. He has come back this winter in superb form winning 2 of his last 3 races and I feel he can definitely make his presence felt in this company. If he jumps as well as last time, then I cannot see him out of the places.

12-1 Best price.
Unseated

STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1

Important Trends:

• Katchit was the only five-year-old to win in twenty-six years.
• Twenty-four of the last twenty-eight winners were winners of their last prep run.
• There have only been three winners over the age of eight since 1951.

For me, with those trends supporting his excellent form, I cannot back anything else other than ZARKANDAR in this. He'll be my best bet for day 1 and I am excited about viewing this race. 

7-2 Best price. (as of Sunday evening)
4th

GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A Cross Country Chase)

Important Trends:

• The last twenty-three winners of the race had all contested cross country races before.
• The trends suggest that the handicap is not an issue, Garde Champetre and Spot The Difference both recent top weight winners.
• Irish trainer Enda Bolger is a cross country specialist and has won fourteen of the 32 cross country races run at Cheltenham before. He has also saddled four of the last eight winners of this race.
• British trained runners have a dreadful record in the race, currently 1 from 65 runners, although Balthazar King bucked that trend in 2012 winning for Phillip Hobbs.

In my opinion this is between, Uncle Junior, Outlaw Pete and ARABELLA BOY. I know that the top weights can run well in this race, but I do feel 11-12 will be too tough for Uncle Junior. It'll be close between the other 2 though and I'll be siding with Arabella Boy, who is trained by Edna and has more of a progressive profile in my opinion.

5-1 Best price. (as of Sunday evening)
Abandoned


OLBG MARES´ HURDLE (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares´ Hurdle) Grade 2
Important Trends:

• Quevega has won the last four years!

Personally, I think that's all you need to know. QUEVEGA is by far the best horse in the race. I want her to win, I think she will win so I will be having no bet in this race. I suppose Swing Bowler is one to look out for. However, I do not think she'll be anywhere near as good as Quevega.

NO BET
Winner

REWARDS4RACING NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE (Listed Race)

Important Trends:

• All eight of the winners either won or finished second in their last race before Cheltenham.
• Six out of the eight winners had previously won over two miles and four furlongs.

This is the toughest race of the day. We have plenty of horses who could all make a name for themselves in this race and the trends above do not really whittle them down in any way. I have this between The Druids Nephew, Howards Legacy and Arthur's Pass. I'll be siding with the highly progressive ARTHUR'S PASS. He has impressed me in his last 3 wins, and although he is flying up the weights, I think he can run a huge race as he hasn't even broken sweat, or made mistakes in his last few races.

18-1 Best price.
Unplaced


Best of luck all. I'm sure most will need it (including me!).

The Rascal